Boise State Broncos
2023-2024 Result: 22-11 record (13-5 MWC), NCAA Tournament appearance
Projected Starting Lineup
Head Coach: Leon Rice (15th season)
Guard: Alvaro Cardenas (SR)
Guard: Chris Lockett (FR)
Forward: Javan Buchanan (JR)
Forward: Tyson Degenhart (SR)
Forward: O’Mar Stanley (SR)
Key Additions
Alvaro Cardenas (San Jose State)
Dylan Anderson (Arizona)
Javan Buchanan (NAIA Indiana Wesleyan)
Key Losses
Roddie Anderson III
Chibuzo Agbo
Jace Whiting
Max Rice
The Boise State Broncos upgraded their backcourt offense by adding in conference transfer Alvaro Cardenas, who is one of the most underrated additions this portal season and will provide coach Leon Rice with more flexibility offensively. This Bronco offense was heavily reliant on playing through the post-ups of Tyson Degenhart and O’Mar Stanley (12.6% of possessions, 94th percentile), and while they were efficient in this area a year ago, adding a point guard in Cardenas that displayed solid efficiency as a pick and roll ball handler at San Jose State will only give this offense more avenues to success. Cardenas’ elite operation in pick and roll and his overall ability as a passer (31% ast rate last season) will give the Broncos a dynamic they didn’t have a year ago as Boise ranked in the 5th percentile in pick and roll frequency last season, which is mostly due to not having a true point guard that could display efficiency in this type of action. While the trio of Cardenas, Degenhart, and Stanley gives the offense a fairly high floor, it’s the supporting cast that brings a lot of uncertainty. Losing Chibuzo Agbo and Max Rice may be more important than it seems on the surface, as they provided solid floor spacing for the Broncos. There are some candidates to fill in the floor spacing necessities for this team with guys like Andrew Meadow, Chris Lockett, and Javan Buchanan, but all of them are unproven at the Division I level. While these 3 along with Arizona transfer Dylan Anderson provide a fair amount of upside, it will be tough to rely on consistency with this group. The rest of the bench brings almost no experience, so it will be up to the creation of the “Big 3” to provide consistent offense for the Broncos. There is optimism that they will have a few role players emerge in the shooting department, but this team is a significant injury away from experiencing a major drop-off in production. When healthy, this offense could definitely be the best in the Mountain West along with cracking the top 50 in national ratings.
Leon Rice’s defenses have always created their value by controlling the defensive glass. Regardless of the type of roster Rice has had, he has always found a way to bring consistency on the defensive boards, and since 2011 when he took over for Boise State there has only been one instance where the Broncos ranked outside the top 25 nationally in defensive rebound rate. This in itself will create a solid floor for the defensive unit, and they will most likely need to lean on this part of the game due to their lack of athleticism across the board. The frontcourt defense is fairly stable with Degenhart and Stanley, and although neither one of them is a dominant rim deterrent, they have the ability to defend multiple positions. 7-foot center Dylan Anderson brings rim protection upside for a team that was in the 13th percentile in guarding shots at the rim, but it remains to be seen how much of a role he will be able to carve out with the starting frontcourt being mostly locked down. The perimeter defense won’t be able to provide much help as Cardenas, Lockett, and Meadow don’t grade out as needle-moving defenders. This unit certainly will not be top tier in the Mountain West, but we should like where the floor is at with the physicality of the frontcourt, along with the upside of Dylan Anderson. Expect the Broncos to finish in the 75-100 range in defensive efficiency in the 2024-25 season.
Overall, this is a Broncos team to be fairly high on with their solid floor/ceiling combination. The lack of depth is definitely a concern and an injury or 2 could derail their season, but Leon Rice has a core that could do something special in the Mountain West. If they stay healthy, fully expect Boise State to be a top contender for a Mountain West title along with making their 4th straight NCAA tournament.