Colorado State Rams
2023-2024 Result: 25-11 record (10-8 MWC), NCAA tournament appearance
Projected Starting Lineup
Head Coach: Niko Medved (7th season)
Guard: Bowen Born (5th year)
Guard: Jalen Lake (SR)
Guard: Nique Clifford (5th year)
Forward: Jaylen Crocker-Johnson (SO)
Center: Rashaan Mbemba (SO)
Key Additions
Bowen Born (Northern Iowa)
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson (Little Rock)
Keshawn Williams (Northern Illinois)
Ethan Morton (Purdue)
Nikola Djapa (LIU)
Key Losses
Joe Palmer
Joel Scott
Patrick Cartier
Isaiah Stevens
Josiah Strong
Losing an elite guard like Isaiah Stevens is typically tough to bounce back from for a non-power conference program, but coach Niko Medved was able to grab one of the most talented mid-major guards in the portal in Bowen Born to ease the transition. Though the Northern Iowa transfer is not nearly the passer that Stevens was, he is still competent when asked to initiate offense and brings more shooting upside at the point guard position. Born’s shooting ability off the dribble will be important for an offense that lacks perimeter creation outside of him, but Nique Clifford has the ability to provide relief for Born as the number 2 option. Clifford is one of the most underrated players in the country, and although he won’t be great as an initiator, his spot-up game is well above average. Clifford’s catch and shoot ability along with attacking closeouts and reading the defense in the lane will be very important for this offense. Projected bench piece Keshawn Williams will also be a guy to watch out for with his shot creation abilities, but injuries have derailed his career a bit. The Rams also lost their starting frontcourt in Joel Scott and Patrick Cartier, but Medved was able to grab another underrated piece through the portal in Little Rock transfer Jaylen Crocker-Johnson. He will be paired with Rashaan Mbemba who will see a much larger role this upcoming season. These 2 will be important for Medved’s offense that likes to identify mismatches on the interior and use the post up game to exploit opposing defenses (8.9% post-up frequency, 81st percentile). This new frontcourt may not bring as much of a scoring punch, but there is a bit of offensive rebounding upside to their game (Crocker-Johnson 9.2% OREB, Mbemba 8.3%), and while Medved prefers getting back on defense over attacking the glass, the Rams may be able to provide offensive rebounding value while still limiting transition opportunities. Depth frontcourt piece Nikola Djapa should provide value in the rebounding department as well (10.9% OREB). While this offense doesn’t have high upside without a superstar initiator like Isaiah Stevens, there are certainly paths for Colorado State to have a top 3-5 offense in the Mountain West, and maybe top 75 nationally.
Last year’s defense was the best unit Colorado State has had under Niko Medved, ranking 28th nationally in adjusted efficiency, per Torvik. While the defense emerging last season was a big surprise to many, expect this unit to finish in at least the top 50 again. It all starts with Nique Clifford, who is one of the better on-ball defenders in the country and will lock down almost any perimeter player in the Mountain West. The rest of the perimeter defense looks a little weak with Born and Jalen Lake not grading out well on this end, but we can trust Clifford to bring enough value to hold this guard group up. Crocker-Johnson and Purdue transfer Ethan Morton are also important factors for the Medved defense that likes having some defensive versatility in the frontcourt. While Morton may not play a major role due to his offensive limitations, Crocker-Johnson has the ability to guard forwards and centers, and that is big for a defense that wants to prevent the opposition from getting to the rim (34.6% rim frequency allowed last season, 14th percentile). Though there is an overall lack of rim protection on the roster, this defense may not be exposed in the paint with the lateral quickness of the frontcourt. Another area where this defense typically excels is on the defensive glass. Even with the lack of size and physicality Colorado State has had throughout Medved’s tenure, they have never had a group finish outside the top 150 in defensive rebounding rate. Expect them to rank near the top 100 again as this is another area where Clifford brings a ton of value (25% DREB) and will help ease the pressure off the undersized frontcourt. I project the Rams to have a top 4 defensive unit in the Mountain West due to the great coaching and an arguably more talented defensive frontcourt.
Colorado State might be a bit underrated going into the 2024-25 season, as they are currently rated on Torvik as the 6th best team in the Mountain West. This feels low, as they seem to be closer to the 4th or 5th best team in the conference at the worst with a real chance at a 3rd at-large berth in 4 years. The offense not being top tier may ultimately be their downfall against elite competition, but I am a believer in Niko Medved to sustain a solid enough offense to compete for a Mountain West championship.