Air Force Falcons
2023-2024 Result: 9-22 record (2-16 MWC)
Projected Starting Lineup
Head Coach: Joe Scott (5th season)
Guard: Ethan Taylor (SR)
Guard: Jeffrey Mills (SR)
Guard: Byron Brown (SR)
Forward: Beau Becker (SR)
Center: Wesley Celichowski (SO)
Key Losses
Corbin Green
Rytis Petraitis
Kellan Boylan
Key Additions
None
As is the case most years, there is limited roster turnover with the Air Force Falcons. This is a program that will not be too heavily impacted by the portal positively or negatively due to the fact that they are a service academy, and because of this they are 29th in the nation in returning minutes (69.8%), per Torvik. Even though they are returning a solid amount of production from a year ago, they did lose their most important player in Rytas Petraitis. Petraitis was perfect for coach Joe Scott’s Princeton style offense, as he is a solid passer and ball handler at the power forward position. But even with the loss of their best player, the offense should bring similar production this upcoming season. The starting lineup still has 4 seniors in Ethan Taylor, Jeffrey Mills, Byron Brown, and Beau Becker who know this offense like the back of their hand, and they bring an above-average shooting ability that the Princeton offense requires to have success. Opposing teams that struggle to defend off-ball screens, cutting actions, or struggle in a slow-paced setting will have a tough time guarding the Falcons offense.
The same can’t be said about the defense, as Air Force had almost zero resistance on this end last season (317th adjusted defense, per Torvik). As bad as this group was a year ago, the Falcons may be even worse this upcoming season as they lost their 3 most impactful defenders from a year ago in Kellan Boylan, Corbin Green, and Rytis Petraitis, according to Torvik’s defensive BPM metric. These 3 frontcourt pieces provided some versatility to a team that already was lacking in this area in the first place, as they created some defensive value with their decent shot blocking and turnover forcing abilities. Joe Scott-led teams are typically above average in the turnover forcing department, ranking in the top 100 in 2 of his 4 seasons at Air Force, but this group doesn’t look to have this quality in 2024-25. You should expect this defense to rank in the 300’s nationally again, along with being the worst unit in the Mountain West.
This is a program that will always be at a disadvantage from a recruiting perspective, but they may be able to pick up a few surprise wins early in the season with their roster continuity. Overall, this is a team that most likely won’t make any noise in the Mountain West due to the lack of talent and well below-average defense.