New Mexico Lobos
2023-2024 Result: 26-10 record (10-8 MWC), NCAA tournament appearance
Projected Starting Lineup
Head Coach: Richard Pitino (4th season)
Guard: Donovan Dent (JR)
Guard: C.J. Noland (5th year)
Guard: Tru Washington (SO)
Forward: Mustapha Amzil (SR)
Center: Nelly Junior Joseph (SR)
Key Additions
C.J. Noland (North Texas)
Filip Borovicanin (Arizona)
Atiki Ally Atiki (BYU)
Ibrahima Sacko (Georgia Tech)
Key Losses
JT Toppin
Jamal Mashburn Jr.
Jaelen House
Jemarl Baker Jr.
After a Mountain West tournament title and New Mexico’s first NCAA tournament appearance in the Richard Pitino era, the Lobos look poised to contend at the top of the conference again with their explosive backcourt. Losing Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. may seem significant on the surface, but these 2 had their inefficiencies on the offensive end, especially when they were asked to operate in a half-court setting. The Lobos also have the guard depth to handle losses of House and Mashburn, as Donovan Dent and Tru Washington will provide just as much firepower, if not more, than the prior starting backcourt. Pitino was able to find a third guard through the portal in North Texas transfer C.J. Noland, who will provide this backcourt with some much needed shooting. The backcourt will have a lot of similarities to last year, as they will thrive when they get out in transition and be reliant on scoring inside the arc, but the small difference is how they will be able to operate in the halfcourt when the game slows down. Donovan Dent’s ability to shoot off the dribble (78th percentile, per Synergy) and operate in pick and roll at a high level will change the dynamic of this half-court offense a bit. House being the primary ball handler last year created a spacing issue as Dent had to play more off the ball but is more valuable as the initiator of an offense, and while the floor spacing issues won’t necessarily go away with the lack of shooters at Pitino’s disposal, expect at least a slight uptick in production from beyond the arc (32.7% 3pt, 241st nationally). Ball security was a major strength of the Lobos last year (14% TO rate, 15th nationally) and don’t expect that to change with Dent leading the charge along with the veteran C.J. Noland. Guard depth may turn into a slight issue, and if one of these starting guards goes down with an injury they could experience a bit of a drop-off.
The paint presence of JT Toppin is what could be missed the most this upcoming season, as he was one of the best rebounders and above the rim finishers in the entire country last season (14.5% OREB). Offensive rebounding was where the Lobos created a lot of their value in the half-court (33.5% OREB, 44th nationally), but they could experience some sort of drop off in this area with Mustapha Amzil most likely taking over as the starting power forward. While Amzil should open up the driving lanes a bit with his shooting capabilities, it may not be enough to offset the lack of production on the glass. Nelly Junior Joseph along with newly added depth pieces Atiki Ally Atiki, Ibrahima Sacko, and Filip Borovicanin bring a stable rebounding presence, but it will be very difficult for Pitino to create a frontcourt that optimizes both quality floor spacing and great offensive rebounding. While this offense may operate better in the halfcourt, they did lose some value in the frontcourt which will keep them away from being a top-tier offense nationally.
Last year’s New Mexico Lobos defense made massive strides from the first 2 years under coach Pitino, as they made improvements in almost every defensive category en route to the 23rd ranked adjusted defense in the country, per Torvik. The Lobos ranked in the top 100 in defensive effective field goal percentage (55th), turnover rate (49th), and rebound rate (96th), and these are the same categories that the prior 2 New Mexico teams didn’t reach the top 170 in. While the defensive turnover rate is stable for this upcoming season with the speed of the backcourt, the other 2 categories will see a small amount of regression at the least. The first shot defense and rebounding ability were heavily impacted by the departed JT Toppin and as stated earlier, the replacements for him create a negative impact in these areas relative to last year. Defensive rebounding will likely be the most impacted aspect for the Lobos, but it won’t necessarily be a negative trait due to the stability they have at the center position. Expect this defensive unit to be near the top 50 nationally, but they will be more flawed than last year’s breakout season.
The loss of Toppin can’t be understated and per Torvik’s BPM ratings, he was by far the most impactful player for the Lobos a year ago. Despite this, New Mexico should be viewed as the favorite to win the Mountain West led by their dynamic backcourt. There is no doubt that Dent will be leading the charge for the offense, and this should do wonders for this group. Their ceiling is still sort of limited on the national stage due to being too transition reliant, but they may prove people wrong and be much improved in the halfcourt. Expect another NCAA tournament appearance for the Lobos this upcoming season, whether it’s an at-large bid or by winning the Mountain West tournament title.