Nevada WolfPack
2023-2024 Result: 26-8 record (13-5 MWC), NCAA tournament appearance
Projected Starting Lineup
Head Coach: Steve Alford (6th season)
Guard: Tyler Rolison (SO)
Guard: Kobe Sanders (5th year)
Forward: Tre Coleman (5th year)
Forward: Nick Davidson (JR)
Center: K.J. Hymes (6th year)
Key Additions
Kobe Sanders (Cal Poly)
Xavier DuSell (Fresno State)
Brandon Love (Texas State)
Yuto Yamanouchi (Portland)
Justin McBride (Oklahoma State)
Key Losses
Hunter Mcintosh
Jarod Lucas
Kenan Blackshear
Nevada didn’t lose a high volume of players this off-season, but the players they did lose had a major impact a year ago. Losing the starting backcourt of Kenan Blackshear (15.1 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Jared Lucas (17.8 PPG) will bring a lot of uncertainty as to who will take over the lead role on offense this season. The 6’8” Cal Poly transfer Kobe Sanders should take over the Kenan Blackshear role as the bigger type of point guard who can attack mismatches in either the post-up or isolation game. This was a huge part of coach Alford’s offense a year ago as Blackshear was able to collapse opposing defenses when he had a mismatch, and made the right passes to generate quality looks for open shooters. Sanders will be able to provide similar qualities and he is probably the more talented perimeter scorer compared to Blackshear, but it remains to be seen how productive he can be in a better conference like the Mountain West. During Sanders’ time as the lead guard at Cal Poly, over the last 2 seasons his team's record was 12-54 with a 1-38 record in conference, and while you can’t place all of that blame on him, it is fair to question whether or not he can lead an offense at a competent level. Tyler Rolison will slot into the other guard position, and he will also need to step up his offensive production to help the Wolfpack this season. He’s not the scorer that Jared Lucas was, but he will be competent from beyond the arc along with creating shots for others (21.1% Ast rate). With the backcourt creation being uncertain, Alford will have to lean on 2 areas to generate offense and that is the post-up game along with a plethora of off-ball screen actions. The post-up scoring ability of Nick Davidson and KJ Hymes will be utilized often (11.3% of time, 90th percentile) and they were efficient in this area last season. Davidson’s inside-out ability will be key in opening up driving lanes as well, and he may even be the primary scorer for this team if things don’t turn out well in the backcourt. Nevada was also in the 99th percentile in off-ball screen actions, per synergy, so expect Kobe Sanders, Xavier DuSell, and Tre Coleman to run off screens consistently to create some open looks from beyond the arc. Overall, the Wolfpack offensive production will still come down to how efficient the backcourt can be and with that being an uncertainty at this time, this offense should not be viewed as one of the elites in the Mountain West.
The defense of the Nevada Wolfpack should be its calling card in the 2024-2025 season. The positional size and length jump off the page with 4 of the 5 players in the projected starting lineup being listed at 6’7” or taller. The first shot defense for the Wolfpack will be a major strength with the length they have, and they also project to be solid on the defensive glass with Davidson (20.5% DREB) and Hymes (15.1% DREB) in the frontcourt. There isn’t much depth in the frontcourt so they may not be elite on the defensive glass for all 40 minutes, but Texas State transfer Brandon Love can provide production off the bench. Coach Alford’s defensive style of clogging up the lane and forcing teams to beat them from the perimeter is a good fit for this roster, as they will keep the opposition away from the rim along with having the ability to contest perimeter looks with the length of Coleman, Sanders, Davidson, and even Daniel Foster coming off the bench. The only area to pick at with the defense is the lateral quickness not being great, as teams with quicker guards will be able to space the Wolfpack out and give them issues on the perimeter. Tyler Rolison getting more playing time will be a big upgrade over Jared Lucas in the perimeter defense aspect, so this may not be as much of an issue as it looks on the surface. Nevada’s defense should be ranked just behind the San Diego State Aztecs elite defense, with the potential to even take over as the best defense in the Mountain West.
The Nevada Wolfpack should come into the 2024-2025 season with a high floor, as the defense will keep them alive against almost anyone in the country. The offense is a different story and this may ultimately be their downfall, as they are lacking a true star that can create consistent quality looks. Unless Kobe Sanders or Nick Davidson can prove they are stars in this conference, I have a tough time believing the Wolfpack will take home the Mountain West crown, but they will still be firmly in the hunt.