San Diego State Aztecs

2023-2024 Result: 26-11 record (11-7 MWC), Sweet 16 appearance

Projected Starting Lineup

Head Coach: Brian Dutcher (8th season)

Guard: Nick Boyd (JR)

Guard: Reese Waters (SR)

Forward: Miles Byrd (SO)

Forward: Jared Coleman-Jones (SR)

Center: Magoon Gwath (FR)

Key Additions

Nick Boyd (Florida Atlantic)

Wayne McKinney III (San Diego)

Jared Coleman-Jones (Middle Tennessee)

Kimo Ferrari (Brown)

Pharaoh Compton (4-star recruit)

Key Losses

Elijah Saunders

Lamont Butler

Micah Parrish

Jay Pal

Jaedon LeDee

Darrion Trammell

Head coach Brian Dutcher has done a fantastic job with this Aztec program since he took over for Steve Fisher in 2018, but there is reason to be skeptical as this offense may not have enough upside to make another deep run in March. Last year’s version of San Diego State at least had some firepower in the frontcourt, as Jaedon LeDee (21.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG) had one of the most productive seasons in school history. There will be a major drop-off in interior production this upcoming season with Miles Heide most likely taking over at the center position, as Heide only profiles as a rim protector and offensive rebounder. Heide (14.3% OREB last season) and 4-star Freshman Pharaoh Compton will have to tap into their offensive rebounding ability to create value for this frontcourt unit that lacks the post-up and creation qualities of last year’s team. Depth frontcourt piece Jared Coleman-Jones provides some shot-making and creation upside but isn’t really a needle mover on this end. The perimeter group also has its share of issues, as the Aztecs lack a true point guard. Florida Atlantic transfer Nick Boyd is projected to fill in as the lead guard, but he profiled more as an off-ball guard at FAU so he will be stepping into a much bigger role that he may not be completely ready for. Reese Waters will be Boyd’s running mate in the backcourt, and Waters’ ability to make shots off the dribble will be key in taking some of the stress off of Boyd. Waters does like to live in the mid-range so he may not be a consistent source of offense due to his inefficiencies everywhere else, but he brings more of a shot-making dynamic than everyone else on the roster. The 3-point shooting ability in general also isn’t a strength of the Aztec offense, as there isn’t anyone on the roster that profiles as a consistent volume shooter. Sophomore Miles Byrd along with bench pieces Wayne McKinney, Kimo Ferrari, and Taj DeGourville will need to step up in the shooting department, but if they can’t produce, I have a hard time believing this group can be a top 100 offense in the country, or even a top 5 offense in the Mountain West. 

Even when the offense has been lacking with past Aztec teams, the defense has always stepped up to consistently put them at the top of the Mountain West standings.  That may be the case once again this season as this defense has the positional size and athleticism to bother almost any team in the country. The frontcourt versatility of Compton and Heide will give coach Dutcher plenty of flexibility, as he is one of the better defensive game planners in the country. There are some small concerns with the unproven frontcourt depth and Dutcher loves to use his bench, but we should believe in Dutcher to figure out his optimal frontcourt rotation. The player that brings the most excitement to this defense is small forward Miles Byrd, as he will see much more playing time this season and he may be the best defender in this conference. Byrd is a game wrecker on defense (5.3% block rate, 3.6% steal rate) and he is also a well above-average rebounder for his position. Byrd’s versatile defensive skill set will give Dutcher even more lineup flexibility, and if he is able to play the power forward position consistently it may even open up avenues to success on the offensive side of the floor. San Diego State has had a top 25 adjusted defense in 6 out of the 7 seasons of the Brian Dutcher era and we should expect no difference this upcoming season. 

Although the Aztecs are in danger of missing the NCAA tournament this season due to the poor offense, the elite defensive unit may be able to carry this team through the Mountain West once again. Their upside is certainly capped, and they most likely won’t be making a 3rd consecutive Sweet 16, but certainly expect them to be in the hunt for another Mountain West title.