UCF Knights
2023-2024 Result: 17-16 record (7-11 Big 12), NIT Appearance
Projected Starting Lineup
Head Coach: Johnny Dawkins (9th season)
Guard: Darius Johnson (SR)
Guard: Jaylin Sellers (SR)
Forward: Keyshawn Hall (JR)
Forward: Benny Williams (SR)
Center: Rokas Jocius (JR)
Key Additions
Keyshawn Hall (George Mason)
Benny Williams (Syracuse)
Rokas Jocius (La Salle)
Jordan Ivy-Curry (UTSA)
Dallan Coleman (Georgia Tech)
Dior Johnson (Clarenden JUCO, former 4-star)
Mikey Williams (Memphis, former 5-star)
Key Losses
Thierno Sylla
Marchelus Avery
C.J. Walker
Omar Payne
Shemarri Allen
Ibrahima Diallo
Johnny Dawkins was able to retain his backcourt of Darius Johnson and Jaylin Sellers, who both averaged over 15 points per contest last season. Keeping those 2 along with adding some extra offensive talent on the wing in Keyshawn Hall, Jordan Ivy-Curry, and Dior Johnson should make this unit much improved from their 153rd adjusted ranking from a season ago. The added floor spacing across the entire roster will take away a lot of the issues they had a season ago, as they were extremely reliant on offensive rebounding to generate baskets when Johnson and Sellers weren’t making shots. While they had success on the offensive glass, the floor spacing was non-existent when Dawkins had to play 2 one dimensional centers on the floor together. And while the new frontcourt pieces of Benny Williams and Rokas Jocius don’t project as great shooters, they are able to put the ball on the deck and operate on the perimeter at a competent level. Overall, this offense doesn’t look to be a top tier Big 12 unit, but it is certainly more balanced than last year and will be able to perform better against multiple defensive styles due to the added ball handling and shooting.
The defensive side of the floor is also going to look much different than it did a season ago. Dawkins relied on his elite rim protectors and ball pressure on the perimeter to keep his team in games, and it led to UCF finishing in the top 20 in adjusted defense in 2023-24, per Torvik. While Dawkins tried his best to replace the frontcourt depth he lost through the portal with Keyshawn Hall, Benny Williams, and Rokas Jocius, this group projects as a significant downgrade from the trio of 7 footers he had at his disposal. The perimeter defense should be able to hold its own, especially if they can force turnovers at a similar clip to last year (20.4% TO rate, 28th nationally), but there is also a chance this aspect of their defense regresses due to Dawkins having to cut back on his aggression on this end. When Johnny Dawkins has had elite defenses, it has always started with his team’s ability to protect the rim so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to keep this unit from falling off too much. This group finishing closer to the 75-80 range defensively as opposed to their 18th ranked finish last season is more likely.
The offensive upside of the UCF Knights has certainly created a higher ceiling for this team. They will have the ability to adapt to more play styles with the added ball handling and ability to score in the half court, but the defensive drop off brings worry. There are a wide range of outcomes for the Knights, as they could sneak their way into the NCAA tournament, but do not anticipate them competing for a Big 12 championship.