Texas Tech Red Raiders
2023-2024 Result: 23-11 record (11-7 Big 12), NCAA tournament appearance
Projected Starting Lineup
Head Coach: Grant McCasland (2nd season)
Guard: Elijah Hawkins (SR)
Guard: Chance McMillian (5th year)
Forward: Darrion Williams (SR)
Forward: JT Toppin (SO)
Center: Federiko Federiko (SR)
Key Additions
Elijah Hawkins (Minnesota)
JT Toppin (New Mexico)
Federiko Federiko (Pittsburgh)
Kevin Overton (Drake)
Jazz Anderson (4-star recruit)
Key Losses
Pop Isaacs
Joe Toussaint
Warren Washington
After a surprisingly great season from an offense perspective in year 1 of the Grant McCasland era, expect at least a small step back in production this season. The Red Raiders offense finishing 25th in adjusted offense last season (per Torvik) was one of the more unpredictable outcomes, but losing the trio of Joe Toussaint, Pop Isaacs, and Warren Washington may hurt this team a little more than people think. The biggest issue with the offense this upcoming season is the lack of playmaking and that is something that last year’s trio provided. While coach McCasland brought in one of the top assist men in the country last season in Elijah Hawkins (7.5 APG), his game may not translate to being an elite Big 12 guard due to his erratic play (26.1% career TO rate). Even if Hawkins is better than expected, having just one playmaker isn’t going to be enough to sustain a good Big 12 offense. Darrion Williams may be able to provide some relief to Hawkins in the creation department, but I am not particularly high on him being a number 2 option. Texas Tech is most likely going to need to find other ways to create offense and one avenue to success should be on the offensive glass. The frontcourt duo of JT Toppin (14.5% OREB) and Federiko Federiko (11.8% OREB) should provide consistent second chance opportunities along with being lob threats in the pick and roll game. There are some depth concerns in the frontcourt so the offensive glass may not be a reliable source of offense for all 40 minutes, but it is still a positive. Another solid trait this offense has is the shooting ability, as there are 5 players on the roster that shot over 34% from 3 last season. Most of these players profile as catch and shoot types so it may be tough to open these shooters up with the lack of creation, but it’s still a positive for this team. If McCasland can draw up some actions to get shooters open consistently I will be a little higher on this offense, but until then we have to assume this offense takes a step back in production.
Seeing a Grant McCasland led team that had a worse defense than offense was a bit surprising last season, but we should expect to see more of a North Texas style team (McCasland’s former team) this season. A few things the Red Raiders lacked a season ago from a defensive standpoint was consistent rim protection and wing depth. Part of these problems stemmed from the injuries of Devan Cambridge and Warren Washington, but adding guys like JT Toppin, Federiko Federiko, and Kevin Overton should give Texas Tech a little more lineup flexibility. Even though Washington is gone and Federiko projects to be the only true center on the roster, JT Toppin should be able play the small ball 5 position at a high level with his great rim protection skills. Toppin’s versatility will give McCasland plenty of options defensively, along with the wing group of Williams, Overton, and Cambridge. As for the guard group, Hawkins and Chance McMillian aren’t elite defenders, but there is a little defensive playmaking upside, especially with Hawkins (2.9% stl rate). All in all, there are not many bad things to say about this defense outside of the minor depth concerns that could lower their floor. I project Texas Tech to be closer to a top 25 defensive unit this season as opposed to the 62nd ranked unit they had a year ago.
The Red Raiders will be a team that nobody wants to play due to their slow paced defensive style game, but they may be vulnerable to upsets if the playmaking of Hawkins and Williams is worse than expected. The lack of offensive upside may take them out of Big 12 Championship consideration, but they can easily finish in the top 5 of this conference. Year 2 projects to be another solid one for coach McCasland.