Oklahoma State Cowboys
2023-2024 Result: 12-20 record (4-14 Big 12)
Projected Starting Lineup
Head Coach: Steve Lutz (1st season)
Guard: Khalil Brantley (SR)
Guard: Davonte Davis (5th year)
Guard: Bryce Thompson (5th year)
Forward: Marchelus Avery (5th year)
Center: Abou Ousmane (5th year)
Key Additions
Khalil Brantley (La Salle)
Davonte Davis (Arkansas)
Marchelus Avery (UCF)
Abou Ousmane (Xavier)
Arturo Dean (FIU)
Robert Jennings (Texas Tech)
Brandon Newman (Western Kentucky)
Patrick Suemnick (West Virginia)
Tyler Caron (DII St. Mary’s)
Key Losses
Javon Small
Quion Williams
Eric Dailey Jr.
Brandon Garrison
Mike Marsh
Jarius Hicklen
John-Michael Wright
New Cowboys head coach Steve Lutz has made the NCAA tournament in each of his 3 seasons as a head coach, twice at Texas A&M Corpus Christi and last year with Western Kentucky. With a new coach comes an essentially brand new roster and that is exactly what we have in Stillwater. While Lutz managed to retain Bryce Thompson (11.6 PPG last season), he had to build his roster mainly through the portal and did a decent job of acquiring experienced talent. Adding guys like Khalil Brantley, Davonte Davis, Marchelus Avery, and Abou Ousmane is a good start to what is going to be a rebuilding process at Oklahoma State.
The offense is going to be interesting to see develop, because the perimeter is filled with jump shot reliant and ball dominant guards. Lutz’s offensive style is built off playing in transition and getting to the rim as often as possible, but he may not have the guards to execute this as well as he wants with the trio of Brantley, Davis and Thompson who don’t profile as efficient scorers in that area. The fit of the backcourt in general is a bit odd, as none of these guys profile as the most elite spot up players either, but maybe getting out in transition more often will open up their games. Projected backup guards Arturo Dean and Brandon Newman may fit this scheme a little better. The frontcourt trio of Marchelus Avery, Robert Jennings and Abou Ousmane are certainly better fits for the up and down style of Lutz, as they all display solid rim running and rebounding ability to raise the floor for the offense. Avery will especially be important as a connector on offense with his spot up shooting, profiling as one of the only guys on the roster who can make teams pay when they leave him open on the wing. It will most likely take this offense time to figure things out, and they will also have to learn how to execute in the half court against quality competition, which I am not too high on. Expect this offense to finish in the 100-150 adjusted efficiency range this upcoming season.
Although I am not particularly high on the defense either, it should be the more consistent unit for the Cowboys. Lutz emphasizes keeping opponents away from the rim and creating turnovers to get out in transition more often, so this may raise the defensive floor a bit. The problem with this style is that it allows the opposition to win from beyond the arc, and this perimeter defense unit may not be able to hold up when trying to guard spot up actions. Brandon Newman and Davonte Davis will be important defenders in this scheme as they possess the length to get out and guard shooters. The center combo of Abou Ousmane and Robert Jennings are good fits for Lutz’s defense as well, with their balance of physicality and lateral quickness. There are still a fair amount of questions with the defense, especially with Brantley and Thompson getting a majority of playing time on the perimeter, so their ceiling is certainly capped on this end of the floor.
At the end of the day, Oklahoma State made the right decision to move on from Mike Boynton to Steve Lutz, but it will still be a tough rebuilding process. There is a lot to like about what this program can look like in the long term as there is a distinct plan for what Lutz wants to accomplish, but it will take some time to earn the respect from the top of the Big 12. The Cowboys are most likely a bottom 5 team in the Big 12 this upcoming season.