Kansas State Wildcats
2023-2024 Result: 19-15 record (8-10 Big 12), NIT appearance
Projected Starting Lineups
Head Coach: Jerome Tang (3rd season)
Guard: Dug McDaniel (JR)
Guard: Brendan Hausen (JR)
Guard: Max Jones (SR)
Forward: Coleman Hawkins (SR)
Center: Ugonna Onyenso (JR)
Key Losses
Arthur Kaluma
Dai Dai Ames
Ques Glover
Jerrell Colbert
Cam Carter
Will McNair
Tylor Perry
Key Additions
Dug McDaniel (Michigan)
Brendan Hausen (Villanova)
Max Jones (Cal St. Fullerton)
Coleman Hawkins (Illinois)
Ugonna Onyenso (Kentucky)
Achor Achor (Samford)
C.J. Jones (Illinois Chicago)
Baye Fall (Arkansas)
David Castillo (4-star recruit)
Jerome Tang’s Wildcats are going to look a little different this upcoming season, as only 1 player that averaged more than 10 minutes is returning. This roster turnover may actually be a good thing for the offense, because they are adding extra playmaking that they lacked last year. The 2024-25 version of Kansas State will be led by Dug McDaniel and Coleman Hawkins who provide this team with a much higher offensive ceiling and should almost guarantee this unit to finish higher than their 136th adjusted offensive finish from a season ago (per Torvik). The downside of these 2 running the offense is their erratic style of play, but we saw last year’s Wildcat team finish with the 347th ranked TO rate so the added explosiveness will only help coach Tang. There also should be more shooting consistency with this year’s team as they added Villanova sharpshooter Brendan Hausen (38.1% 3pt) and Cal State Fullerton transfer Max Jones (38.5% 3pt). The floor spacing options in the frontcourt will also give this offense more flexibility, as Achor Achor and Coleman Hawkins have showcased the ability to play the small ball center position. Scoring inside the arc may turn into a problem with McDaniel, Jones, and Hausen being extremely perimeter dominant and there also isn’t a physical rim presence in the frontcourt. Tang may be able to mask this issue by being active on the offensive glass like his teams usually are, and he will have plenty of opportunity to play 2 big man lineups. The 4 man frontcourt rotation of Coleman Hawkins, Ugonna Onyenso, Achor Achor, and David N’Guessan should provide a consistent offensive rebounding presence to raise the floor a bit for the offense. While there are still some questions whether Dug McDaniel and Coleman Hawkins can gel well enough to carry an offense, we should expect this offense to finish at least in the top 75 with the upside to be even better.
Tang’s defense should be a stable unit once again, and he will lean on the 4 man frontcourt rotation to create the Wildcat’s defensive efficiency. All 4 of these bigs showcase the ability to protect the rim at an above average level along with defending in the open floor. The flexibility Tang has with his frontcourt will allow him to try a lot of different lineup combinations and find what works best on both ends of the floor. The backcourt may not have the best individual defenders and it could make the defense a bit worse than I expect, but McDaniel and Jones have shown the ability to force turnovers at a fairly high level (McDaniel 2.0% stl rate, Jones 2.5%). The frontcourt stability will allow these 2 to be more aggressive and may allow Tang to get back to his preferred defensive style of forcing turnovers at a solid rate. If this group can force turnovers at a top 75 rate, the ceiling will be extremely high and even if they don’t we should still expect the defense to finish inside the top 35 once again.
After a burst onto the scene in Jerome Tang’s first season in 2023 and a disappointing second season, expect the Wildcats to have a season somewhere in the middle of these 2 extremes. There is upside for Kansas State to finish in the top 5 of the best conference in America, but there is also a chance the wheels fall off on offense and they finish in the 10-12 range. Even at their floor, they can be a bubble team come NCAA tournament time and that is something they couldn’t say a year ago.