Iowa State Cyclones
2023-2024 Result: 29-8 record (13-5 Big 12), Sweet 16 appearance
Projected Starting Lineup
Head Coach: T.J. Otzelberger (4th season)
Guard: Tamin Lipsey (JR)
Guard: Keshon Gilbert (SR)
Forward: Milan Momcilovic (SO)
Forward: Joshua Jefferson (JR)
Center: Dishon Jackson (SR)
Key Additions
Joshua Jefferson (Saint Mary’s)
Dishon Jackson (Charlotte)
Nate Heise (Nothern Iowa)
Brandton Chatfield (Seattle)
Nojus Indrusaitis (4-star recruit)
Key Losses
Tre King
Robert Jones
Hason Ward
The Iowa State Cyclones are coming off their most successful year in the T.J. Otzelberger era, as they won the Big 12 tournament along with reaching the Sweet 16 for the 2nd time in 3 years. The defense is obviously elite, but the biggest reason for the Cyclones ascension into national championship consideration is the improved offense. Last year’s much improved shooting and ball security were the main factors for the offensive success, and those newly added qualities don’t project to go away this upcoming season with Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert, Milan Momcilovic, and Curtis Jones all returning to Ames. Otzelberger was also able to grab extra shooting depth in the portal by grabbing Nate Heise from Northern Iowa. The frontcourt is where there is less continuity, but there looks to be more offensive talent with this unit. The Cyclones added Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson, who display more of an ability to score on their own compared to Otzelbergers past frontcourt options. These 2 may not space the floor at a competent level, but their above average passing ability should be able to negate some of those limitations. Iowa State finished last year with the 53rd rated adjusted offense per Torvik which isn’t necessarily elite, but it’s a massive step in the right direction for this program. This unit should finish slightly above last year’s rating, making them a serious contender to win the Big 12 and beyond.
Like the Houston Cougars, the defensive side of the floor is something to not worry about too much, if at all. Coach Otzelberger has had a top 7 defensive unit in each of his 3 years at Iowa State and we shouldn’t expect that to change this season. This defense also has Houston-like qualities, as they are a heavy turnover forcing defense (25.3%, 2nd in the nation) that forces you to beat them by taking difficult jump shots. They have the ability to execute this style with their elite perimeter defenders in Lipsey and Gilbert who display elite playmaking ability on this end. The one concern people may have is with the frontcourt roster turnover, and although it is a very small issue, it is something to monitor. Replacing Robert Jones, Hason Ward, and Tre King will not be easy from a defensive standpoint, but the new rotation of Jefferson, Jackson, Brandton Chatfield and Demarion Watson should be just fine. Being an active defender with good recovery skills is important for Otzelberger’s defense, and last year’s frontcourt trio displayed those traits so it will be very important for this year’s frontcourt to match that, which they should be able to do. Even if it does take time for the frontcourt to figure things out defensively, we should fully expect this unit to finish in the top 5 once again.
Expectations have never been higher in Ames, as they should almost be a lock to finish in the top 5 of the Big 12 with a chance to win it outright. There are still offensive limitations with this group that hold them back from being an elite unit, but they continue to improve on that end year by year. If the Cyclones can be a top 25 unit on offense, I will be a believer in them to be a true national title contender, but until then I am still a little skeptical that they can rattle off 6 straight wins against elite teams in the NCAA tournament.