Houston Cougars
2023-2024 Result: 32-5 record (15-3 Big 12), Sweet 16 appearance
Projected Starting Lineup
Head Coach: Kelvin Sampson (11th season)
Guard: Milos Uzan (JR)
Guard: LJ Cryer (5th year)
Guard: Emanuel Sharp (JR)
Forward: J’Wan Roberts (5th year)
Forward: Ja’Vier Francis (SR)
Key Additions
Milos Uzan (Oklahoma)
Mercy Miller (4-star recruit)
Chas McCarty (4-star recruit)
Key Losses
Jamal Shead
Damian Dunn
The Houston Cougars reaching their ceiling has always come down to how well the offense operates. Kelvin Sampson’s squads have made at least the sweet 16 every year they have ranked inside the top 20 in adjusted offense, per Torvik, and they should be near this range once again. Losing all-american guard Jamal Shead to the pros is obviously a massive loss on both ends of the floor, but Sampson went to the portal and grabbed arguably the best replacement he could find for his system in Milos Uzan. While Uzan’s offensive game is still a bit raw and isn’t as great of a floor general as Shead was, his shot creativity will give the Cougars a dynamic they were missing last season. Retaining sharpshooters LJ Cryer and Emmanuel Sharp was also important, and they may have a bit more offensive responsibility this upcoming season if Uzan isn’t great. Even if there is a lack of pure shotmaking, the Cougars can always rely on their elite offensive rebounding ability and their ball security. Offensive rebounding is a staple in Sampson’s gameplan, and that will be the case once again this season as they retained everyone from their elite frontcourt. The turnover margin may not be as good as last year due to Shead leaving, but they should still be a top 25 unit in this area once again.
The Cougars defense is arguably the most stable unit in the entire country. Coach Sampson has led this defense to a top 20 adjusted defense rank in each of the last 7 seasons, per Torvik, and there is no reason to believe that streak ends this year. Outside of defensive rebounding, there are no weaknesses on this end and they make up for the lack of rebounding by turning the opposition over at an elite rate (24.4% TO rate in 2023-24, 3rd nationally). What makes this defense truly great is the athleticism and versatility in the frontcourt. The duo of J’Wan Roberts and Ja’Vier Francis is one of the most underrated duos in the country as they display top tier recovery skills along with great rim protection. The athleticism and recovery skills of the entire Houston defense in general is what makes this defense work with Sampson’s hyper aggressive style. While this defense is almost a guarantee to finish in the top 10, getting Terrance Arceneaux back from his season ending achilles injury (not guaranteed) may take this defense over the top and really help with the overall perimeter depth.
The Houston Cougars will absolutely be in the hunt to defend their Big 12 regular season title and will be looking to do much more than that after a disappointing end to last season. If it wasn’t for injuries the last season (and lack of quality shot making), they may have made a run to the Final Four and beyond. Barring any unfortunate circumstances, we should see Houston near the top of the Big 12 standings along with competing for a national title once again.