Xavier (7-1) at TCU (4-3)

Xavier travels to Fort Worth to take on TCU after squeaking out a victory on Sunday by 3 points against South Carolina State. Sean Miller’s squad is now 7-1, with their lone loss coming against Michigan by 25. Xavier’s record is a bit misleading in terms of how they have actually played. They struggled against Texas Southern and IU Indianapolis before pulling away in the second half. As for the Horned Frogs, they enter this game at 4-3 after losing three of their last four to quality opponents in Colorado State, Santa Clara, and Michigan. The Horned Frogs don’t have a quality win yet, so this would be a great chance for them to boost their resume if they can win at home tonight, where they come in as 1-point favorites.

Outlook for Xavier:

Xavier’s offense has been solid, averaging 77.5 points per game. However, they have not played great competition, and they are not scoring at a super efficient rate. They are 156th in the country in the field goal percentage. They do thrive from beyond the arc, where they shoot 38.7%, which is good for 35th in the country. Ryan Conwell has been a big boost for the Musketeers offensively, averaging 16.5 a game and shooting the three at 46.9% on 8 attempts a night. The offense is also led by Zach Freemantle and Dayvion McKnight, but outside of those two and Conwell, there has not been much consistent production. The TCU defense has been very solid, giving up the 39th most points in the country and forcing 15.6 turnovers per game, so Xavier will have their work cut out for them in their first true road game against a power school. The TCU defense also has a solid rim protector in Ernest Udeh who is averaging 2 blocks a game in his 25 minutes, so it may be difficult for Xavier to attack the rim with success, especially since they don’t shoot it well inside the arc as it is and lack a strong interior presence. Conwell, McKnight, and Marcus Foster will need to take care of the ball in this game if they want to come out victorious since the Horned Frogs have four guards all averaging over 1 steal a game. Valuing the basketball will be crucial because of the TCU defense and the slower pace that they play offensively. If Xavier gets down, it may be difficult for them to climb back in on the road. Sean Miller will need to preach taking care of the basketball and taking high-percentage shots all night against the Horned Frogs.

Outlook for TCU:

As mentioned above, TCU’s defense has been great. They have played several quality opponents and held them in check offensively despite losing those games. However, none of them have been in front of the Fort Worth crowd. Tonight, they are. Expect the volume to be turned up and Jamie Dixon’s team to be heavily motivated to add a quality win to their campaign. TCU has been woeful on the offensive end, averaging just 67 points a game on 40.7%/28.7% shooting splits. They lack a go-to scorer, with their leading scorer being Frankie Collins at 11.3 points a game. The Horned Frogs really do this by committee. Ernest Udeh should be able to get on the offensive glass tonight with a solid size advantage over Zach Freemantle. John Hughley may get more minutes for the Musketeers tonight, but he is not much of a rebounder and is a couple of inches shorter than Udeh as well. The key in this game will be TCU’s defense. Xavier’s offense has not been very good, and the backcourt of TCU has the ability to bother Conwell and McKnight. The best offense for TCU tonight may be their defense forcing turnovers and getting out in transition for higher percentage shots and their ability to get on the offensive glass for second-chance points. If TCU’s defense can continue to put pressure on teams as they have so far, they should come away with a victory against Xavier tonight.

The Final Word:

TCU needs this win for their tournament resume. I won’t go as far as to say it is a must-win just yet, but moving to 0-4 against tournament-quality opponents would not bode well for them since it isn’t even Christmas yet. Xavier’s offense has struggled, and TCU’s defense has been very good. While TCU’s offense has stunk it up so far, it will be the Xavier offense vs. the TCU defense that ultimately decides the game. If TCU can get some stops and get a lead so they can lean on their defense, it will be difficult for the Musketeers to come back on in Fort Worth. Look for TCU to get out in transition and on the offensive glass against this Xavier team that lacks a real big to match Ernest Udeh Jr. If Xavier can continue to shoot the three as well as they have, then they will come away with a win. However, I believe it will be TCU’s 58th-ranked three-point defense and ability to run teams off the line with their guards that forces Xavier into some tough, contested twos at the rim versus Ernest Udeh that wins out. Look for TCU to pick up a much-needed resume-builder and send Xavier back to Cincinnati with their second loss.