2024-2025 Wooden Award Best Bets
Since 1977, the John R. Wooden award has been presented to the best player in college basketball and is voted on by nearly 1,000 media members. The award saw its second ever two-time winner with Purdue center Zach Edey, who was the clear favorite entering last season and ran away with this award from the beginning of the season (+165 preseason odds). The other two-time winner was Virginia legend Ralph Sampson, who won in both 1982 and 1983. While last year’s race was anticlimactic for the most part, this year’s race looks a bit more open with the 4 leading candidates in the +700 to +900 odds range. Without further ado, let's dive into the history of the award to see if we can identify an edge when going about betting this award.
As is the case with all award futures betting, it is very important to identify the history of the award and what type of player the voters tend to gravitate to. With that being said, I took a deep dive at the last 25 winners of this award and these are the trends you should look out for when identifying your favorite bets.
22 of the last 25 winners were on the 3 seed line or above in the NCAA tournament, and 14 of these winners were on number 1 seeds.
The lowest seeded team for a winner of this award was on the 6 seed line (Andrew Bogut in 2005).
23 of the last 25 winners averaged 17 points per game or more, and 15 of the last 25 winners have averaged at least 20 points per game. The 2 players that won without getting to this points threshold were TJ Ford and Anthony Davis. Ford averaged 7.7 assists per game and was on a number 1 seed. Anthony Davis was also on a number 1 seeded team, while averaging 10.4 rebounds a game along with an astounding 4.7 blocks per game.
Only 3 winners in the history of the Wooden award were Freshmen.
This large sample size in history of the Wooden award should give us a clear answer to the type of player we are looking for. Obviously we know that this award goes to a great player on a great team, but knowing the exact thresholds of what a player needs to surpass helps us filter out some of the players that look good on the surface but may not meet the requirements to be a true contender. Now that we know the type of player profiles we should be looking for, let’s take a look at the odds board and filter some players out that most likely don’t fit the criteria.
As stated earlier, 22 of the last 25 Wooden award winners were on top 3 seeds. While we don’t truly know who will and won’t fit this criteria, there are some names I am willing to filter out. The following names will be left off my Wooden award betting portfolio for not necessarily being on an elite team.
Walter Clayton (+3000)
Hunter Sallis (+3000)
Great Osobor (+6000)
Ryan Kalkbrenner (+2500)
These players aren’t at the top of the odds board, but essentially betting on these players to not be a part of a top 3 seed is a good start when trying to identify a winner. The 3 players since 2000 that weren’t on a top 3 seed were household names in Kevin Durant (Texas), Andrew Bogut (Utah), and Trey Burke (Michigan). All 3 of these players went top 10 in the draft, including Bogut at number 1 overall, so the fact they were top prospects in the NBA draft most likely helped their case. I do not expect any of these players to be top draft prospects so we should be willing to take these players out of consideration for now.
23 of the last 25 winners averaged at 17 points per game and 15 of the last 25 have averaged at least 20 points per game. Let’s eliminate some notable players that don’t necessarily have high end scoring upside.
LJ Cryer (+1800)
Grant Nelson (+3000)
Khalif Battle (+4000)
Ryan Nembhard (+4000)
Tyrese Proctor (+4000)
Aidan Mahaney (+4000)
Zeke Mayo (+5000)
Tamin Lipsey (+5000)
Oumar Ballo (+5000)
Braden Smith (+5000)
There may be a few players on this list that get to the 17 point per game threshold like LJ Cryer and Khalif Battle, but their scoring upside is limited and it would be a surprise to see them get to 20 points per contest. Cryer’s career high average is 15.5 points per game, and even with Houston’s loss of Jamal Shead his role shouldn’t increase too much. As for Khalif Battle, he is a talented scorer, but there’s a good chance he doesn’t even start on the loaded Gonzaga Bulldogs roster so I am willing to say he doesn’t get to this mark.
This last trend is simply a fade of the hyped up Freshmen class, as the Wooden award has only seen 3 Freshmen winners in its history. Let’s filter out some of the big name Freshmen this upcoming season.
Cooper Flagg (+700)
VJ Edgecombe (+3000)
Liam McNeeley (+4000)
Dylan Harper (+4000)
Ace Bailey (+4000)
Tre Johnson (+8000)
The award’s history certainly has a large sample size of Freshmen not taking home this honor, and we should be able to confidently count out most of these candidates, but the one name we need to keep an eye on is Duke Freshman Cooper Flagg, for a few reasons. The first reason being that he is a generational prospect and the heavy favorite to go number 1 overall in the upcoming NBA Draft. This is an important factor, as all 3 Freshmen winners had a lot of hype going into college and were also top picks in their respective NBA Drafts (Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson). The second reason to not count out Flagg is due to the fact he may actually exceed all of the previously discussed thresholds. While the 17 point per game threshold may be tough to achieve, he certainly has the talent to get there and Duke is most likely a top 5 team entering this season. The narrative is also there for Flagg, as being the best player on one of college basketball’s premier blue blood programs is a good recipe to win the award in the voter’s eyes. Flagg’s case to win this award is interesting, and it is something to monitor as the season goes on. But we should be willing to keep him off our preseason portfolio, as the +700 number we are getting is not nearly intriguing enough to bet on with the strong history there is against Freshmen.
Now that we have filtered out some of the names near the top of the odds boards, let’s identify the players that have the most value when it comes to betting this award. Here are the players that potentially match all of the criteria we are looking for. The odds vary drastically from book to book, so make sure to find the best number available to you to get the most value possible.
RJ Davis (+700)
Hunter Dickinson (+750)
Mark Sears (+800)
Johni Broome (+3000)
Johnell Davis (+3000)
Caleb Love (+4000)
Kam Jones (+5000)
Wade Taylor IV (+6000)
Davis, Dickinson, and Sears are all rightful favorites to win this award, as they fit the mold as high volume scorers and are on preseason top 10 teams. As for the others on this list, they are not locks to be on top 3 seeds, but most of them have a very good chance to lead their teams there by Selection Sunday.
Best Bets
Mark Sears (+800, DraftKings)
While you are mostly splitting hairs with who to pick at the top of the odds board with Davis, Dickinson, and Sears, I prefer the Alabama guard at +800 for a number of reasons. First off, Alabama plays at one of the fastest paces in the country (14th nationally in adjusted pace, per Torvik), and that will only help his case as racking up all of the counting stats is important when being considered for this award. Sears averaged 21.5 points per game a year ago which is more than Davis and Dickinson had a year ago (Davis 21.2 PPG, Dickinson 17.9 PPG), and his role could expand even more this season with the Crimson Tide losing Aaron Estrada. We could see even more on ball usage for Sears early in the season (25.6% usage last season), as South Florida transfer Chris Youngblood is out until January with a foot injury. It also wouldn’t be a surprise to see Sears play more point guard with the Estrada departure. Auburn transfer Aden Holloway could fill in that role early on, but it remains to be seen if he can be trusted, so we should also expect Sears’ assist numbers to improve from his 4 per game a year ago.
It is fair to say that RJ Davis is also stepping into a much bigger role at North Carolina with the departure of Armando Bacot, but with this loss comes more uncertainty with how well the offense will operate, which only lowers the Tar Heels chances of being a truly elite team. Expect an uptick in production for Davis, but possibly a step back in team success for last year’s 1 seeded Tar Heels. As for Hunter Dickinson, he will need his scoring output to improve significantly from his 17.9 points per game last season. While he should improve in this area to some extent, there are a lot more scoring options on this year’s Jayhawks team with the additions of AJ Storr, Zeke Mayo, and Rylan Griffen. The added weapons may open up Dickinson’s game, but they will most likely lower his overall usage as well. When taking all of these factors into account and knowing that any of these 3 candidates can walk home with the award when it’s all said and done, Mark Sears seems to have the most balance between individual opportunity and team success to make him my best bet for the Wooden Award.
Johni Broome (+3000, BetMGM)
Auburn big man Johni Broome is one of the top values on the board, as there is some significant offensive production that needs to be replaced in the frontcourt. Broome only averaged 16.5 points per game in 24.1 minutes per game last year, but I expect a significant uptick in minutes this upcoming season. Jaylin Williams’ production from the power forward spot needs to be replaced, and he averaged 12.4 points per game with a 20.1% usage last season. There is no real candidate to fill into the starting power forward role and receive the same usage Williams did, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Broome play more minutes at the 4 alongside Dylan Cardwell. This may be a bit outside of his comfort zone, but Broome has shown the ability to space the floor (28-79 from 3 last season), so he won’t be a liability at this position. Don’t expect a ton of minutes at the 4, but there should be enough to get him close to the 30 minute per game mark and get him past the 17 point per game threshold. The Auburn Tigers are also firmly in the mix for a top 3 seed, with an outside chance at a 1 seed. There is some downside to this if head coach Bruce Pearl doesn’t raise his minutes past the 25 mark, but at +3000 it is most likely worth the risk.
Caleb Love (+4000, DraftKings)
The Arizona guard averaged 18 points per contest a year ago and should see even more opportunities to score on the perimeter with the departures of Oumar Ballo, Kylan Boswell, and Pelle Larsson. Arizona was also on the 2 seed line a year ago and will be firmly in the mix to be there again this season. Love matched the criteria that is essentially required to be in consideration for this award, and his numbers should only improve this season. The downside here is the lack of efficiency Love has shown throughout his career and gets somewhat of a bad wrap in the media because of it, but at +4000, it is absolutely worth taking a shot on a guy that will be the best player on a great team.
Kam Jones (+5000, DraftKings)
Our last best bet will be on a player that should see an insane production jump. Jones averaged 17.2 points per game in 28.9 minutes per game last season, but it is almost a guarantee that Marquette head coach Shaka Smart will keep him on the floor for at least 30-32 minutes per game this upcoming season. The added minutes in itself will help Jones become a candidate for this award, but when you add in the usage increase he is about to receive, it becomes obvious why a bet needs to be made at this number. Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro took up a lot of the usage and were great initiators for the Golden Eagle offense, but now that they have departed for the NBA, it will be time for Kam Jones to step into an even higher usage role than before (25.4% usage last season). Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross will have a chance to take some of the on ball usage that Kolek and Ighodaro are leaving behind, but it is Jones that will reap the most benefits, and he will have the upside to possibly lead the entire nation in scoring. The downside to this bet is that Marquette is most likely on the outside of the 3 seed line come March, but at +5000 odds it is worth the risk to take a player that could reach the 22-24 points per game mark on a quality team.