#25 UConn (6-3) at Texas (7-1)

UConn travels to Austin tonight for another tough game after returning home from Maui to play Baylor earlier this week. As we talked about, UConn went 0-3 in Maui and the world felt like it was ending among the Husky faithful. They responded with a 4-point victory over Baylor. As for Texas, they enter this game with their one loss coming against Ohio State in the season opener. Since then, they have not played a strong schedule with their best wins coming against Syracuse on a neutral site and on the road against NC State the other night. This is the kind of game that would be a great resume booster for Rodney Terry’s team. UConn will remain hungry for this one because if they lose again, Coach Hurley might lock up the basketballs at practice until they win again.

Outlook for UConn:

Things have not been as smooth for the back-to-back defending National Champions as they would have hoped. However, their offense has still been very efficient. They are 14th in the country in FG% and 27th in points per game. The expectation has been that Alex Karaban, UConn’s leading scorer, will be back for this game after missing their game against Baylor with a concussion. With Karaban out, freshman Liam McNeeley had to step up and score 17 points as their second-leading scorer on the season. He has started to look more and more comfortable with each game. It was also a positive sign for the Huskies that Solomon Ball and Hassan Diarra both played well in their last game because their guard play and overall creation have been inconsistent. Tarris Reed has been a fantastic spark for them off the bench averaging nearly 11 and 9 to go with close to 2 blocks a game. The UConn offense is never in question because their coaching and sets get them such good looks. While their creation is not what it has been in the last couple of seasons, Diarra is capable as a facilitator but needs to do it consistently, especially in the big games. Surprisingly, UConn leads the country in blocks per game. This was not an expectation entering the season after losing their anchor in Donovan Clingan to the NBA. Reed, Karaban, and Samson Johnson have combined to average 5.6 blocks per game. UConn’s defense has struggled against quality opponents, however, giving up 99 to Memphis and 85 to Dayton, but I don’t put a ton of stock in defensive performance in Maui due to how friendly the rims are there. UConn’s defense is better than they played in those games, and they play a Texas team tonight that struggles to get into an offensive flow sometimes. Texas’ offensive numbers are a bit skewed due to the quality of competition, but they have been very efficient from the field so far this season. However, if the Huskies can disrupt the Texas guards, then the Longhorns will struggle to score because they do not have an interior presence that they should be worried about. That will allow Johnson and Reed to focus more on protecting the rim and just be solid on Shedrick when he gets it. Going on the road to play at the Moody Center is not an easy task, but if Hurley’s squad stays efficient on the offensive end and disrupts the Texas guards, forcing them to take tough twos, then they should walk away with a road victory. 

Outlook for Texas:

Texas is 7-1, but their best wins have been narrow victories against subpar teams in Syracuse and NC State. Their offense is a bit overrated right now, despite shooting 50% from the field and 36.7% from three. They are so reliant on freshman Tre Johnson, who has been great, averaging almost 21 points per game. The Longhorns just depend on a lot of skill shots and isolation basketball right now because they do not have great creating guards. They average only 14.5 assists on their 29 made field goals per game. A Dan Hurley defense will likely be able to take advantage of that by forcing guards like Tre Johnson and Tramon Mark to take tough shots, which they typically aren’t afraid of taking. Texas’ defense has been solid, but again, playing against a lot of lower-level teams. Even though they are only allowing 61 points a game, they have not dominated the glass the way a power team should against the teams they have played. This was a worry coming into the season because outside of Shedrick, the interior depth is very weak with Onyema being the backup big and Arthur Kaluma being the four-man. The Texas defense is due for some negative shooting regression on the defensive end as they are in the top 20 in FG% allowed. UConn is a team you don’t want to see when that is the case because they seem to get great shots on nearly every possession with their masterful sets orchestrated by Hurley and his elite coaching staff. The Huskies might be able to attack the rim and score in the paint fairly easily unless Texas can put great ball pressure on the guards and keep the ball in front without fouling. On the offensive end, Texas needs to get into the flow early, which they have struggled to do against the better teams this season. Their organization is poor and if that happens against UConn, then they will expose you and take advantage of it so you dig yourself a hole to start. One of the big keys will be the rebounding battle. Texas struggles to rebound and UConn knows it. They will attack the offensive glass hard, especially Reed and Johnson. The Longhorns will need their bigger guards like Johnson and Mark to rebound down from the top if they want to leave the Moody Center with a quality win. If Texas can be organized offensively and level out the rebounding battle, then they have a great chance of picking up a big home win.

The Final Word:

UConn is still going to be playing desperate despite a big win against Baylor the other night. They are still trying to avenge their losses from Maui, and Hurley is not going to be satisfied with one win against a struggling Baylor team. As for Texas, they are still trying to figure some things out, and this is by far the best team that they have played. UConn should be able to disrupt the Longhorns and force the guards to take bad shots that they are not afraid to take. UConn will be the team that gets the best shots more consistently because they have organization and guards that have started to play better as creators. The Longhorns will also lose the rebounding battle to the bigger Husky squad. As much as I would like to see the steam coming out of Hurley’s head from another loss, expect UConn to pick up a quality road win at the Moody Center. Take UConn +1 or ML.