Saint Mary’s Gaels
The Saint Mary’s Gaels return last year’s breakout WCC player of the year in Augustas Marciulionis to lead the charge once again for this offense. The Senior point guard averaged 12.4 points and 5.3 assists per game with a 22.2% usage rate, and it will be expected of him to carry even more of the load this upcoming season with the departures of Aidan Mahaney, Alex Ducas, and Joshua Jefferson. It is not necessarily in Marciulionis’ DNA to be a high volume scorer, as he isn’t the most talented off the dribble shooter or finisher, so it will also be important for former 4-star Jordan Ross and Arizona transfer Paulius Murauskas to help out. Ross and Murauskas are unproven at the college level, but there is perimeter scoring talent with these 2 which is the area of uncertainty with this offense. The post up game of Mitchell Saxen will be another way to generate offense for this group and relieve pressure from Marciulionis, especially if the 3 point shooting ends up being poor. Regardless of the talent level, head coach Randy Bennett has been able to find ways to maintain a competent level of offense even with the lack of a dominant go-to scorer, and that is because of 3 separate areas that he values: offensive rebounding, ball security, and shot selection. The offensive rebounding has been especially great over the last 2 seasons, having the 3rd ranked offensive rebounding percentage unit in the country last season, and this will continue to be a strength of the Gaels with the center duo of Mitchell Saxen and Henry Wessels returning for another year. As for the ball security and shot selection, Bennett has always had high IQ guards that know his system and he also loves generating as many shots at the rim as possible, along with avoiding the lower percentage mid range area shots. Saint Mary’s has been inside the top 100 nationally in turnover rate in 8 of the last 10 years and has also been in the 25th percentile or lower in mid range shot attempts in each of the last 5 seasons, per CBB analytics, so there is a proven track record with Bennett’s gameplan being executed. It is fair to question who will efficiently score for this team in crunch time, but since 2008, the Randy Bennett led Gaels have only ranked outside the top 100 in adjusted offense once (2021), per Torvik, so consider the floor high on this side of the floor this season as well.
The defensive side of the floor may have an even more stable floor, as Saint Mary’s has finished 11th or better nationally in Torvik’s adjusted defense rating in each of the last 4 seasons. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see this unit finish outside of the top 11 this year with the losses of Alex Ducas, Joshua Jefferson, and Mason Forbes, but there is still a solid foundation of defenders in Moraga. That foundation starts with last year’s WCC defensive player of the year in Mitchell Saxen, who has done everything coach Bennett has asked of him on this end and more. Saxen takes on a lot of the defensive responsibility, as Bennett likes to cut off spot up opportunities and influence the opposition into frequent pick and roll actions, where Saxen is used in drop coverage almost exclusively. The heavy drop coverage usage can make them susceptible to giving up easier mid range shots and can hurt them when playing solid off the dribble scorers, but Bennett is willing to play the analytical game there. The Gael’s center is also a great defending post ups 1-on-1 along with his backup in Henry Wessels, as they are both brick walls down low. The perimeter group also isn’t too shabby with Marciulionis and Luke Barrett on the wing, as they provide lateral quickness and toughness. Memphis transfer Ashton Hardaway will be another piece to watch for due to the added athleticism he brings, but besides him there is a lot of uncertainty with what the bench will bring on either end of the floor. The depth isn’t a huge concern, as the Gaels play at a super slow pace and don’t foul too often so they will be able to run a tight rotation all year long. Coach Bennett also has his core values on the defensive end of the floor: Defensive rebounding and preventing transition. Since 2015, Saint Mary’s has only ranked outside the top 25 nationally in defensive rebounding rate one time along with only being outside the 25th percentile in transition opportunities allowed once in the same time span. Overall, this is a defense that has a high floor once again, but they may not finish as high as 11th nationally with their slightly downgraded perimeter group.
Saint Mary’s has always been on the tail of the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the WCC, and it looks to be the same story again this upcoming season. This team is the clear number 2 in the conference again, with an outside chance to win the regular season and tournament championship just as they did last season when they took advantage of a slightly worse Gonzaga team. There are other teams to watch for in this conference, as San Francisco, Santa Clara, and Loyola Marymount look compete this season with solid rosters, but until it is seen, expect the Gaels to be right near the top of this conference all year long with a good chance to earn an NCAA tournament regardless of if they win the WCC or not.
Key Additions
Paulius Murauskas (Arizona)
Ashton Hardaway (Memphis)
Mikey Lewis (4-star recruit)
Liam Campbell (4-star recruit)
2023-2024 Result: 26-8 record (15-1 WCC), WCC regular season and tournament champions, NCAA Tournament appearance
Key Losses
Mason Forbes
Aidan Mahaney
Joshua Jefferson
Alex Ducas
Projected Starting Lineup
Head Coach: Randy Bennett (25th season)
Guard: Augustas Marciulionis (SR)
Guard: Jordan Ross (SO)
Forward: Luke Barrett (SR)
Forward: Paulius Murauskas (SO)
Center: Mitchell Saxen (5th year)