Regular Season Conference Title Best Bets

The college hoops season is now just a few days away, and that means it’s time to establish some positions on teams that we are either high or low on. There is value in the regular season conference title market to take advantage of, and while it is not imperative to make all of these bets in the preseason, there are some longshots that will lose value early in the season. With that, let’s dive into the best bets for the 2024-2025 season.

St. John’s Red Storm (+550, Caesars)

We will start with a pair of bets in the Big East, the first one being on St. John’s at +550 (Caesars). There are reasons to be optimistic in year 2 of the Rick Pitino era, as this defense looks to be miles ahead of where it was last season. The improved length and athleticism across the board and especially on the wings is exactly what coach Pitino wants on his rosters. Led by Aaron Scott and RJ Luis on the wing, this group looks to have one of the best first shot defenses in the country and will be much improved defending the 3 point line this season (255th 3pt% allowed last season). Pitino also went out and grabbed 2 of the best guards in the transfer portal in Deivon Smith (Utah) and Kadary Richmond (Seton Hall), and they will provide this team with elite playmaking ability. The shooting is a bit lacking with this team overall, but if rising Sophomores Simeon Wilcher and Brady Dunlap can take a step forward, the Red Storm’s offensive ceiling will be much higher. Zuby Ejiofor is also a name to watch for at the center position, as he is a monster on the glass and an underrated rim protector. 

St. John’s currently sits as the 3rd favorite on the oddsboard behind UConn (+115) and Creighton (+325), but these teams are a bit more vulnerable than usual. UConn is overvalued in almost every market due to their back to back national titles, and Creighton lost some major pieces on the perimeter in Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander. With all of these factors, a bet on the Johnnie’s is most likely worth it in the long run. They do have some fairly tough games early on in the conference slate, but the Big East plays a double round robin schedule so there isn’t too much to read into in that area. 

Xavier Musketeers (+1200, Bet365)

The other bet in the Big East Conference will be on the Xavier Musketeers, who look to have a high powered offense backed by a quality group of transfers. Ryan Conwell (Indiana State), Dante Maddox (Toledo), Marcus Foster (Furman), and John Hugley (Oklahoma) lead a loaded transfer class and project to play a major role this season. The Musketeers will also be getting a few players back who missed all of last season with injuries in Zach Freemantle (15.2 ppg in 2022-23) and Jerome Hunter (7.8 ppg in 2022-23). Add a solid point guard in Dayvion McKnight, and the weapons at Sean Miller’s disposal will give him plenty of options, as almost any lineup he puts out there will have at least 3-4 quality scoring threats. We should expect this offense to compete with the likes of UConn and Creighton for the best unit in the conference.

The defense is a bit of a different story, as Xavier lacks a true rim protector after losing Long Beach State transfer Lassina Traore for the season due to a knee injury. Miller stated that Traore would have been the team’s starting center this season, and he was the only real dominant paint presence on the defensive end. This certainly lowers the floor for this group, but this bet is more on the upside of this team. Coach Miller has been known as a solid defensive minded coach throughout his career, so we shouldn’t expect a bottom tier defense here. This frontcourt group is still competent with Hunter, Fremantle, and Hugley, and the defensive group on the perimeter has some quality pieces in Dailyn Swain and McKnight. Overall, if this defense can be an average Big East unit, they absolutely have enough upside on the offensive end to walk away with the Big East regular season crown. 

Purdue Boilermakers (+500, DraftKings)

We will move on to the wide open Big Ten conference, where it feels like almost any team can win the regular season crown. But for my money, the Purdue Boilermakers are still the class of the conference. Even with the loss of back to back National Player of Year in Zach Edey, this group still has options to keep this offense top tier. That all starts with Braden Smith (12 ppg, 7.5 apg last season), who is one of the best point guards in America and will have a lot more responsibility this upcoming season. He is accompanied by sharpshooter Fletcher Loyer in the backcourt, along with breakout candidates Myles Colvin and Gicarri Harris. As for the actual replacement for Zach Edey, head coach Matt Painter always has 7 foot centers at his disposal, and he has a pair of big men that will get their chance in Will Berg and Daniel Jacobsen. This will ease the transition from Zach Edey, as the post up offense will likely still be a positive for Painter’s group. The defense will be rock solid like always, as Purdue will control the paint on this end with their size and also have a significant rebound advantage. There are also solid perimeter defenders on this roster in Myles Colvin and Camden Heide, who will see significant roles this season.

Even though Purdue is the favorite on most oddsboards, this is a bet that holds a lot of value. The Boilermakers still have the most balanced team in the conference which creates a high floor, and I believe the books are overstating the loss of Zach Edey a bit. Another reason to feel good about this wager is due to the fact that I will be completely fading the Big Ten’s west coast newcomers. Teams like UCLA (+600) and Oregon (+1500) are viewed as real contenders to win the regular season championship, but they are at a significant disadvantage when it comes to their travel situation. Their homecourt environments are also far worse compared to the top Big Ten teams, and those environments are known as the toughest to play against in all of college basketball. Adding in all of these factors, along with being lower on most of the top teams in the Big Ten in general, it takes me to the Purdue Boilermakers who have one of the best coaches in all of college basketball and a still very good roster. +500 may not be a number we see for very long.

Kentucky Wildcats (+2000, DraftKings)

Onto the SEC, where the Kentucky Wildcats are in year one of the Mark Pope era. The loss of coach Calipari did not stop coach Pope when it came to recruiting, as he is bringing in a very talented transfer class led by Jaxson Robinson and Andrew Carr. Mark Pope’s offenses are predicated off shooting, and he certainly has the roster makeup to execute his plan. There are 6 players on this roster that shot over 35% from 3, so that in itself will make the Wildcats a tough cover. Pope also has elite quality passing big men at his disposal in Amari Williams and Brandon Garrison, which is big for the dribble hand off and cutting actions he likes to implement.

As for the defense, it is probably the more uncertain area for Kentucky this upcoming season, but they still have quality pieces. The stable rim protection from the frontcourt group of Garrison, Williams, and Carr will keep the defensive floor high and coach Pope likes to filter opposing offenses into the mid range and painted areas. The wing group isn’t too shabby either, with guys like Lamont Butler and Otega Oweh being plus defenders. Coach Pope has never led an elite tier defense, but this may also be the best roster he’s ever had.

This is mostly a play on the long number we are getting. We are extremely high on Kentucky here at Mainely Hoops, and this number is portraying them as the 7th or 8th best team in the SEC, which we do not agree with. It may take this team some time to gel with all of the new pieces, but they should have things mostly worked out by conference play, if there is anything to work out at all. This number has been dropping throughout the off season, so make sure to get the best number possible.

Boise State Broncos (+475, DraftKings)

The Boise State Broncos to win the conference is probably my favorite bet in this market at the moment, as I believe this is a poorly priced number. This team has the most star power in the Mountain West Conference with the trio of Alvaro Cardenas, Tyson Degenhart, and O’Mar Stanley. Cardenas, the San Jose State transfer, is especially important here as the Broncos lack of a true point guard presence was their downfall a year ago, but Cardenas brings lots of stability for this perimeter group. He is exceptional in the pick and roll game and will be able to ease the pressure off the face up/post up game of Degenhart and Stanley. This factor will also open up the high upside shooters in Chris Lockett, Andrew Meadow, and Javan Buchanan. The defense has a stable floor as well, and while they do not have great 1-on-1 defenders, their defensive rebounding ability that coach Leon Rice emphasizes is not going away (top 25 nationally in 13 of 14 years under Rice). The frontcourt defense also has some upside with Arizona transfer Dylan Anderson joining the program.

Fading teams like New Mexico and San Diego State, who are above the Broncos on the odds board, is something to take interest in. New Mexico has failed to win the conference crown with arguably more talented teams in years past, and the Aztecs seem to be much weaker this season with their lack of offensive talent. While Boise may have deficiencies of their own, including a lack of depth and uncertainty on the perimeter outside of Cardenas, this team clearly has the most upside in the conference. It is certainly worth a bet on the Broncos to take home the Mountain West regular season title at +475. 

Others Bets to Consider

FAU Owls to win the AAC (+1300, DraftKings)

North Texas Mean Green to win the AAC (+600, DraftKings)

Auburn Tigers to win the SEC (+425, Caesars)

Iowa State Cyclones to win the Big 12 (+550, Caesars)

James Madison to win the Sun-Belt (+475, BetMGM)