Player Props for 12/17

Chase Hunter over 15.5 points (+110)

Clemson at South Carolina, 7:00 pm EST

The Clemson Tigers lead guard should be in a great spot to succeed and will see plenty of opportunities against a defense that has allowed opposing point guards to score plenty in the past. 

Most of these player prop bets will be driven by how players match up against opposing defenses, and Hunter fits the mold here. It starts with the pick and roll defense of South Carolina, as they allow a pick and roll ball handler frequency in the 84th percentile in the country, per Synergy. The Gamecocks are also poor when it comes to defending this play type, ranking in just the 21st percentile in points per possession against. This is great news for Hunter, as he will operate as the main pick and roll handler (57th percentile in frequency), and he is very efficient in that area. However, this is something that South Carolina head coach Lamont Paris is willing to live with, as he prefers his defense limit catch and shoot opportunities by staying connected to shooters on the perimeter. It is very rare that Paris will change his pick and roll defense from the drop coverage that they always play, so Hunter will have plenty of off the dribble opportunities from beyond the arc and in the mid range. 

The spread also indicates we could get some late game fouling, and there is a good chance that Hunter will be the beneficiary of this, pushing us over the top of the 15.5 point total his line is set at.

Kadary Richmond over 10.5 points (-125)

Depaul at St. John’s, 6:30 pm EST

This is a very similar handicap to Chase Hunter’s, as DePaul is another team that tries to limit spot up opportunities to influence the opposition into pick and roll and isolation plays. DePaul is poor when it comes to defending the pick and roll ball handler (15th percentile in points per possession against), and Richmond can take advantage of this as the main ball handler for the Red Storm. 

DePaul is also small across the perimeter, and that could create some real issues when matched up in isolation against a big guard like Richmond, who will back down smaller guards and score over the top. DePaul is poor when it comes to defending in isolation as it is (39th percentile in points per possession against), and Richmond can most likely be considered their toughest test yet in this area. Richmond has also scored over 10.5 points in 4 of 5 games against high major competition this year, so this may be a mispriced line we can take advantage of.  

Jaden Akins over 1.5 threes made (-175)

Oakland vs Michigan State, 7:00 pm EST

I prefer an alternate line here, but no alternates have been released yet. If you see Akins over 2.5 threes at +100 or better, take that number instead of his 1.5 threes line that is currently posted. 

This last player prop is being made for one big reason, Oakland’s zone defense. Zone defenses are designed to keep teams away from the rim and force the opposition to score from beyond the arc. This is exactly what Akins should be able to do for the Spartans tonight.

While Oakland’s zone doesn’t give up as many 3 point attempts as a typical zone, it does give up plenty of opportunities from the corner. 15.6% of Oakland’s total field goal attempts allowed have come from corner 3’s, which is one of the highest marks in the country. This is great news for Akins, as 10.8% of his total field goal attempts have come from the corner 3 area and that mark will only go up against an opponent that allows it at a high rate. 

Akins is also due for some major 3-point regression. The career 37% 3-point shooter is shooting at a 26% clip so far this season, and this is a great spot for him to get right with all of the open looks he projects to get tonight. Akins has seen the Oakland zone before, as this is a perennial matchup against an in state opponent. In the 2 games he saw over 20 minutes, Akins exceeded the mark of 3 three pointers made that we are looking for, and he is receiving more opportunities to score than he has in the past. I expect a big day from the Spartan’s senior guard.