Best Bet for Friday, 12/6

Georgetown at West Virginia (-9)

WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, WV

7:00 pm EST on ESPN2

One of the top games of the night will take place in Morgantown on Friday, as the 5-2 West Virginia Mountaineers will host the 7-1 Georgetown Hoyas. These records may be misleading, as West Virginia has played the far tougher schedule and already has wins over Gonzaga and Arizona at the Battle 4 Atlantis but fell to Louisville and Pittsburgh. The Hoyas have played one of the easier schedules in the country, beating up on all 7 buy game opponents (all outside of KenPom top 200), and they were handled by their only true test of the season in Notre Dame, losing 84-63. This will be test #2 for the Hoyas, and I believe Ed Cooley’s squad may be up to the task.

You could say Georgetown has the talent advantage in this game, led by the backcourt of Jayden Epps and Malik Mack along with big man Thomas Sorber, who is a lot to handle for any frontcourt. While the Hoyas may not take the best shots, as you could label Mack and Epps as “shot chuckers” if you will, having the talent edge as a 9 point underdog is certainly an advantage in itself. This backcourt duo will have avenues to score in pick and roll with West Virginia allowing this action at a high clip, and the Mountaineers are almost willing to lose games if the opposition makes mid range jumpers off the dribble, which Mack and Epps will have a great chance to make happen.

The Hoyas also look to have a major advantage on the glass. They currently rank 45th in the nation in offensive rebound rate, and the frontcourt group of Drew Fielder, Jordan Burks, and the aforementioned Sorber can expose a Mountaineers team that is 274th nationally in defensive rebound rate. Granted the difference in prior competition and physicality is massive and these numbers could be a bit skewed, West Virginia plays small in the frontcourt with 6’8” Amani Hansberry playing the center position, and they could be without their backup in Eduardo Andre, who is dealing with an injury. The depth falls off quickly for the Mountaineers, so the Hoyas can feast on the glass tonight.

West Virginia broke onto the national scene at the Battle 4 Atlantis, where they played 3 consecutive overtime games and won 2 of them against Gonzaga and Arizona. Their ability to control the pace and trust their talented shot makers in Javon Small and the coaches’ son, Tucker DeVries, was key in taking down the “Goliaths” of the tournament. Coach Darian DeVries is well ahead of schedule in year 1 at the helm in Morgantown, but we can use their MTE success against them in this spot, as they seem to be a tad overvalued. They are also more of an underdog team in my eyes, as they prefer to take teams out of transition and turn games into a halfcourt slugfest. 

It is also a positive sign that Georgetown has been handling their buy game competition, as Ed Cooley coached teams have struggled to win by margin historically. However, winning by margin will not be needed to cash this bet, as Cooley has a great track record as an underdog (77-62 ATS as a dog, 55%). He is always finding a way to get his team to play up to competition, and the added talent on this roster helps a ton. Give me the Hoyas plus the points. 

Best Bet: Georgetown +9, playable to +8