2024-2025 National Title Futures: Best Bets
The 2024-2025 college basketball season is almost upon us! With games tipping off on November 4th and the most notable game being Baylor facing off against Gonzaga, it will be important to set our positions on who we believe has the most value on the national championship odds board. Though it is not imperative to spend most of your futures budget in the preseason, these high profile games will have an impact on the odds early and often, with the winner of these games typically moving up the odds board to some degree. There will still be value on some teams as the season goes on, but let’s dive into the teams we want to target in the preseason.
National Championship Winner Trends
As most college basketball followers know, there is a pretty significant trend for which type of team ends up hoisting the trophy at season’s end. Ranking in the top 30 in both adjusted offense and defense before the NCAA tournament per Torvik’s rating system is the most common trend and it makes a ton of sense. Having a balanced team on both ends of the floor is a solid recipe for success, as it allows you to adapt and thrive in multiple styles of gameplay. There have been some outliers, most notably the 2011 and 2014 UConn teams, but 11 of the last 16 national champions rated inside the top 30 on both ends of the floor pre-tournament (Torvik). So this isn’t necessarily a perfect system for determining who the championship candidates are, and there is no perfect system out there, but there are other ways we can filter Torvik’s ratings to give us a better chance.
Most people say “defense wins championships”, but the trends say the best offenses actually walk away with the title. So without further ado, here are some higher success rate trends to help us find our 2024-25 national champion:
Lean towards elite offenses
Of the 5 champions since 2008 that were not ranked top 30 in adjusted offense and defense, 4 of them were outside of this mark on the defensive end, while just 1 was outside the top 30 on offense (2014 UConn, 56th).
11 of the last 16 champions ranked top 10 on offense, with 10 of them even ranking in the top 5. Just 5 national champions were top 10 defensively since 2008.
49 out of the last 64 final four teams were top 30 in offense (77%). 41 of the last 64 final four teams were top 30 on defense (64%).
Obviously, it is still important to have a great defense in order to compete for a national championship as the worst rated defense to win a title since 2008 was 40th, but history says the elite offenses are the ones that end up with the trophy. So, instead of the highly popular top 30 rated offense and defense trend, we will use slightly different requirements of having a top 10 offense along with a top 30 defense. Here are the teams that meet these requirements according to Torvik’s preseason ratings:
Kansas Jayhawks (+1000)
Duke Blue Devils (+1000)
Alabama Crimson Tide (+1000)
Houston Cougars (+1500)
North Carolina Tar Heels (+1800)
Auburn Tigers (+2800)
It is not a given that the listed teams will be within these rating marks by the time the NCAA tournament comes around, but if they do, it may not be a bad idea to place a bet on them in the preseason as most of these teams play very high profile games early in the year that will shift their odds to a degree. Here are some other teams to consider that just missed the mark on one side of the ball in Torvik’s preseason ratings:
Baylor Bears (+2500, 31st ranked defense)
Texas A&M Aggies (+7500, 11th ranked offense)
Creighton Bluejays (+4500, 12th ranked offense)
Purdue Boilermakers (+4000, 20th ranked offense)
Kentucky Wildcats (+3500, 26th ranked offense)
There will most likely be other surprise teams that we will need to watch for, but knowing the teams that have the best chance to win the title according to history is a great start when identifying the teams that have the most value. Torvik’s ratings will adjust throughout the season as well, so teams will fall inside and outside of our rating requirements as the season goes on. The preseason ratings also are not the end-all and be-all, as there will be time to find value on teams after a decent sample size of games. One of my best bets is actually on a team that is not on either of the above lists, so with that being said, let’s get into the preseason best bets for the 2024-25 national champion.
Kansas Jayhawks (+1000, DraftKings)
The Jayhawks had somewhat of a down year last year, at least for their standards, but they have reloaded the roster through the portal. Kansas addressed the shooting woes they had a year ago (33.6% from 3pt, 196th nationally) by adding Zeke Mayo, AJ Storr, Rylan Griffen, and Shakeel Moore. Add these weapons with an elite passer like Dajaun Harris and top tier big man Hunter Dickinson, and it becomes clear why they are essentially a lock to be a top 10 offense and have a real chance to win the title. The defense also isn’t too shabby, and while they may not be as good as their 13th ranked finish last year, they will almost certainly be top 30 as Kansas has only finished outside the top 30 3 times since 2008.
Though we aren’t getting a “juicy” number here and the Jayhawks are one of the favorites to take home the title, this is a number that could move against us early in the season. Kansas has a few high profile games within the first 2 weeks of the season, as they face off against North Carolina on 11/8 and then Michigan State just 4 days later on 11/12. If they win these games in convincing fashion, the +1000 odds we are getting right now may be a number we won’t see for the rest of the season. Kansas also faces off against Duke and Creighton during non conference play. If you only had 1 bet to make in this market, the Jayhawks would be my pick as they are probably the most balanced team with the most offensive talent in the country. Also, they are almost always a top 3 seed under Bill Self in March, giving them a more fortunate path early in the tournament to give this bet a chance to go deep or possibly giving us hedge options.
Houston Cougars (+1600, FanDuel)
The Houston Cougars seem to come into every season underrated by the fans and the betting markets. This is partly because they don’t utilize the portal like other top programs or bring in the most sexy recruits, but they have been one of the most rock solid programs in the country under the leadership of Kelvin Sampson. The Cougars have finished in the top 3 of Torvik’s final rankings in each of the last 4 seasons, and it is very likely for this group to be back in the mix once again. The defense is almost a guarantee to finish in the top 3, as they return essentially everyone from last year’s team that finished 1st on this side of the floor. They did lose their point guard and 1st team all-american selection in Jamal Shead, but Sampson was able to find a near perfect match for his system through the portal by adding former Oklahoma guard Milos Uzan. As for the offense, it is definitely the weaker aspect for the Cougars, but still elite as they have finished in the top 15 in each of the last 4 seasons with 2 top 10 finishes. Their elite ball security and offensive rebounding ability gives them a high floor on this end regardless of if they are hitting perimeter shots or not. There have always been questions whether this team has enough shotmakers to beat the elite teams consistently in March, but they return elite shooters on the wing in LJ Cryer and Emmanuel Sharp, along with Milos Uzan, who actually may have more shotmaking upside than Jamal Shead did during his time in a Cougar uniform.
As for the best time to bet on this team to win the title, I believe the time is now due to the fact that we are probably getting a discount with this number. Houston has been ravaged by injuries in March the last few seasons when they’ve had as good of a chance as anyone to win the title, giving outsiders the perception that they can’t win in the tournament. Houston will also be facing off with Auburn during the first week of the season, so this number could be on the move early in the season.
Iowa State Cyclones (+3000, FanDuel)
We will stay in the Big 12 for all 3 of our best bets with the final bet of the preseason being on the Iowa State Cyclones. While this team doesn’t fit the aforementioned rating requirements on the offensive end (41st preseason adjusted O rating, per Torvik), the Cyclones have more upside on this end than these ratings are giving them credit for. For what it’s worth, KenPom’s preseason ratings have Iowa State’s offense at #17 and that feels like a more likely outcome. The offense has also improved every year under head coach TJ Otzelberger, with their best finish coming last season at 51st. While having the 51st ranked offense isn’t going to give the Cyclones a great chance to win it all, as the offense sputtered against Illinois in the Sweet 16 last season, they retained a lot of their core offensive pieces in Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert, and Milan Momcilovic while having bench shooting options in Curtis Jones and Nate Heise. Coach Otzelberger also did some work in the portal and put together a more offensively talented frontcourt in Saint Mary’s transfer Joshua Jefferson and Charlotte transfer Dishon Jackson. This team probably still doesn’t reach the top 10 in offensive efficiency, but they continue to make massive strides on this end with coach Otzelberger addressing team needs on this end every year, and the defense is essentially a guarantee to finish in the top 10. The Cyclones have finished top 7 in defensive efficiency in all 3 years under Otzelberger, creating an extremely high floor for this program.
Though this isn’t the typical profile for a team I will make a bet on consistently, this is more of a play on the number, as +3000 is far too long for a team of this caliber. For what it’s worth, my personal ratings have the Cyclones at #4 in the entire country, and they are being viewed as the 9th or 10th most likely team to win the title. This may be a number you can get a few weeks into the season as well, as they do not play any sort of meaningful game until they head for the Maui invitational on 11/25. If this is a team you like or want to add to your portfolio, make sure to add them before they tip off against Auburn in Maui. If they run through that tournament and end up hoisting the trophy, there is almost zero chance we will see them at +3000 again and wouldn’t be surprised if it was closer to the +1000-1500 range.
Long Shots
Though these long shot bets are more likely to be hedge opportunities down the road, there are a few that have some value. Texas A&M at +8000 has some value, as they actually almost fit the initial criteria we were looking for, falling just 1 spot short on the offensive end. Wade Taylor is one the best guards in the country, and the Aggies look to be much better defensively with the additions of SMU transfer Zhuric Phelps and Minnesota transfer Pharrel Payne. The issue is shotmaking, as they ranked 340th in the country in effective field goal%, but they are elite when it comes to taking care of the ball and attacking the offensive glass.
Another long shot to consider is the St. John’s Red Storm at +5500. The defense in year 2 of the Pitino era looks to be elite (10th rated adjusted D, per Torvik), as they’ve added some elite defenders on the perimeter in Aaron Scott, Deivon Smith, and Kadary Richmond along with Vince Iwuchukwu to bolster the interior. The backcourt combo of Smith and Richmond could be scary good, and they are 2 of the best playmakers in the country. But like Texas A&M, the issues come in the shooting department, and it remains to be seen whether or not they have many options. You may be able to wait and evaluate this Red Storm team before making a bet, as they could also take a few weeks to gel with most of the roster being filled by new faces. Their schedule also isn’t too daunting in the first few weeks of the season, so their odds should remain stagnant for a bit.
The last long shot suggestion to consider is on another Big 12 team, and that team is the Cincinnati Bearcats at a whopping +15000 (Caesars). This is more of a gamble on the guard play being much better than it was a year ago, as the combination of Day Day Thomas and Jizzle James showed flashes of excellence last year but were very inconsistent. Both players were in their first year of Division I basketball, so that is more expected to be the case in this day and age. The shooting also looks to be much improved from a team that finished 221st in the country in 3 point percentage a season ago. Adding Connor Hickman from Bradley (41% from 3 last season) is exactly what this team needed, along with hopefully getting a healthy CJ Frederick this season. The defense is also rock solid with the multitude of athletes the Bearcats have on the wing, and Aziz Bandaogo is a gifted rim protector. This number varies throughout the markets, as FanDuel has this at +8000 and DraftKings at +9000, so make sure to get the best number you can.