UNLV Rebels

2023-2024 Result: 21-13 record (12-6 MWC), NIT appearance

Projected Starting Lineup

Head Coach: Kevin Kruger (4th season)

Guard: Dedan Thomas Jr. (JR)

Guard: Jailen Bedford (SR)

Guard: Julian Rishwain (6th year)

Forward: Jalen Hill (6th year)

Forward: Rob Whaley Jr. (SR)

Key Additions

Jailen Bedford (Oral Roberts)

Jaden Henley (DePaul)

Julian Rishwain (Florida)

Jace Whiting (Boise State)

Key Losses

Jackie Johnson III

Keylan Boone

Kalib Boone

Justin Webster

Luis Rodriguez

The UNLV Runnin’ Rebel offense will go as Sophomore Dedan Thomas Jr goes, and if he can make the necessary leaps with his decision-making along with improving his game from beyond the arc, the floor will be raised for this unit. Thomas thrived in pick-and-roll situations, as he rated in the 69th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball handler last season on high volume and he will only get more opportunities this upcoming season. Thomas is also a plus advantage creator off the dribble, but where the concerns come in with this offense is with the supporting cast as there are not many reliable floor spacing options to take advantage of Thomas creating looks for his teammates. Oral Roberts transfer Jailen Bedford and Florida transfer Julian Rishwain will be the shooters to provide relief for Thomas, but may not be game changers for a team that needs the spacing. The Rebels also don’t profile as a team that scores efficiently at the rim, so that’s why the shooting will be so important this upcoming season. Jalen Hill and Rob Whaley Jr will be competent as rim scorers and rebounders, but not enough to raise the offensive ceiling. Jalen Hill returning to his pre-injury form will be imperative for UNLV as well, and when he is at the top of his game, he is a great connector piece on both ends of the floor. UNLV certainly has the overall talent level to have a top 3 offense in the Mountain West, but where they are going to create their efficiency remains to be seen. 

The defensive side of the floor is where there are more issues with the Runnin’ Rebels. They are going to feel the losses of arguably their 3 most impactful defenders from a year ago in Keylan Boone, Kalib Boone, and Luis Rodriguez. Their defensive versatility is something Coach Kevin Kruger couldn’t replace in the portal. Krueger was able to bring in 6’7” DePaul transfer Jaden Henley, but he doesn’t nearly bring the defensive impact of Luis Rodriguez on the wing. The overall turnover-forcing upside is limited with this unit, as the athleticism in general took a step back. Kruger-led defenses typically create value in the turnover department, so this will be something to monitor. In the frontcourt, the Boone brothers departure will give Isaiah Cottrell and Rob Whaley Jr bigger roles defensively and while they are a downgrade, they still possess average rim protection ability. The problem with the new frontcourt rotations is the lack of defensive rebounding ability, as Jalen Hill is the only rotation player who had a defensive rebound rate above 16% last season. Rebounding was already an issue with last year's Rebels team, so it could be even more of a problem this upcoming season. Overall, the athleticism and versatility of the UNLV defense is still above average for Mountain West standards, so we can’t be extremely low on this unit. There will be a drop off from last year's 89th ranked adjusted defense (per Torvik), so we will say they finish outside the top 100-125.  

UNLV’s season will most likely rely on how big of a jump Dedan Thomas Jr makes. If he makes the leap to first team all-conference honors, expect the Rebels to finish at least in the top 5, but if he doesn’t progress the way he should with a higher usage role, they may finish in the middle of the pack. The talent level may be too high for the bottom to fall out on this team, but there are too many defensive concerns to call UNLV a top tier contender in the Mountain West this upcoming season.