Maryland (8-1) at #8 Purdue (7-2)

Purdue is coming off a loss in their Big 10 opener at Penn State on Thursday night. That game was not as close as the final score appeared. Penn State won 81-70, but they led by as many as 27 in the second half. Maryland enters this game at 8-1 after throttling Ohio State in their Big 10 opener by a score of 83-59. The Terrapins dominated the glass and the turnover battle en route to a solid victory. Kevin Willard’s squad will now need to build on that and go on the road to Mackey Arena and take down a reeling Purdue squad in search of their first conference win of the season.

Outlook for Maryland:

This Maryland team is much different than those in years past. They have an offense now, averaging 86.3 points a night, which is good for the 17th most in the country. For comparison, they averaged 69 points a game last year, which was 298th in the country. The offense primarily runs through Derik Queen, Ja’Kobi Gillespie, and Julian Reese. Despite being a freshman, Queen looks well beyond his years leading the Terrapins in points and rebounds, while being second in assists. Despite averaging only 2.6 assists, if you watch Maryland, you’ll see the attention he draws and the impressive passes he can make at his size. These passes don’t always lead to a shot, but they lead to rotations which create one more pass for a wide open shot for a Maryland team that has capable shooters now, unlike in years past. Guards like Gillespie, Selton Miguel, and Rodney Rice all make life much easier on the big men because they are able to knock down the three at a solid clip. While the Terrapins don’t shoot the ball great from three as a team, they have good shooters that surround the big men. This is a huge reason why they are 36th in the country in overall FG%. With the improved guards, they are able to play at a much faster pace. What is even more impressive is that they turn it over just 9.8 times a game, which is 335th most in the country. That is an elite stat for a team in the top 60 in shot attempts per game. On the defensive end, Maryland turns teams over at an elite rate, forcing close to 17 turnovers a game. That is something to monitor in this game given Purdue’s recent issues with turning the ball over. Maryland also does a great job on the glass and averages 4.4 blocks a game as a team. Maryland has both an interior presence and physical guards that have disrupted every team they have played this season. Maryland has looked fantastic thus far, outside of their home loss to Marquette, but this game will be a tough one against a motivated Boilermaker team that got embarrassed on Thursday night. If Maryland wants to win, they will need to continue to take care of the basketball and play through their big men on the offensive end and contain the basketball, especially Braden Smith, on the defensive end.

Outlook for Purdue:

Purdue got embarrassed against Penn State the other night. They turned it over 22 times, which is why they lost a game in which they shot 51% from the field and 38% from three. Penn State did a fantastic job of limiting Braden Smith’s opportunities to get downhill and create for others. He only had 5 assists, despite averaging 8.7, and turned it over 3 times. He was in foul trouble much of the first half, which put Fletcher Loyer on the ball more, which was not pretty. He turned it over 5 times and Trey Kaufman-Renn turned it over 7. Matt Painter’s squad now finds itself playing a team forcing 16.8 turnovers a game, but I can only imagine what practice has been like the last couple of days in West Lafayette after turning it over 22 times. Painter is one of the best coaches in the country, so while they won’t eliminate their turnover issues, look for them to clean things up tomorrow and make a concerted effort to take care of the basketball. The Purdue offense has been scoring it very efficiently, and Maryland is 17th in the country in FG% allowed. While Maryland’s defense has been very good, this is a matchup where they could get in some foul trouble, especially on the road. They like to play a physical style, forcing a lot of turnovers. Kaufman-Renn has turned out to be a tough cover, which is probably where Julian Reese will start. If you have followed Julian Reese at all during his career, you would know that he lives in foul trouble. It would not be surprising to see Reese sitting on the bench much of tomorrow with a towel over his head in frustration because he can’t stay down on the craft on Kaufman-Renn. Braden Smith will be looking to bounce back here after a lackluster performance against Penn State, which will help Loyer because he will be back to playing off the ball more. The key for Purdue will be on the defensive end. They will need Heide or Furst to play bigger minutes due to the double big lineup on the other side unless one of Queen or Reese is in foul trouble. The Boilermakers will need to put good ball pressure on the guards and keep it in front so they can’t enter it to the bigs so easily since they lack a strong interior defense and rim protection. Painter’s squad should be motivated on their home floor after losing in a way that they haven’t lost in a long time. On the offensive end, Purdue needs to get some production out of Myles Colvin or Cam Heide, both of whom have been wildly inconsistent to start the season. Purdue being back on their home floor is a major plus. If they can stave off the Maryland defense that has been great so far this season, continue shooting it at an elite rate, and keep the Maryland bigs off the offensive glass, then they should be able to pick up their first Big 10 win of the season.

The Final Word:

Purdue will be extra motivated for this game. It is a bit of a letdown spot for Maryland after beating Ohio State by 24 the other night. They have to travel to one of the toughest places to play in the country where one of the best coaches in the country in Matt Painter will have his team ready to go. Expect the Boilermakers to clean up their turnover issues from Thursday night, even though they are playing a team that turns opponents over at an elite rate. Purdue will continue to shoot the ball at a high level, especially on their home court, behind a strong bounce-back game from Braden Smith. Purdue will be treating this as a must-win game as 5-point favorites in their Big 10 home opener. The Boilermakers will jump out to an early lead and never look back, winning this one by more than the 5-point spread that Vegas projects.