#19 Illinois (6-1) at Northwestern (6-3)

Illinois heads to Evanston to take on the 6-3 Northwestern Wildcats who lost on a heroic shot by Josh Dix of Iowa in their Big 10 opener on Tuesday. Illinois comes in at 6-1, but they have not played since Thanksgiving Day when they took down Arkansas on a neutral site in Kansas City by 13, so this is their first conference game. For Northwestern, this is their home opener of conference play, so they should be ready to go. The Wildcats only have one solid win thus far with a 5-point victory over UNLV. They played Dayton tough on the road, and we saw what the Flyers are capable of with their performance in Maui last week. As for Illinois, their win over Arkansas was key because everyone else they had beaten had been a bottom-end team, with their lone loss coming to Alabama. This should be a fun game and a much better game than we might have anticipated in the preseason due to Northwestern graduating Boo Buie last year.

Outlook for Illinois:

Illinois’ offense has been lethal so far. They are 9th in the country in points per game at 89.1. They play at a very fast pace, taking the 31st most field goal attempts per game in the country but are 153rd in FG% and 130th in three-point percentage. As for the defense, the Illini have been great, but it is a bit misleading. Outside of Arkansas and Alabama, they haven’t played anyone and allowed 40 points or less to both Maryland Eastern Shore and Little Rock, so that severely skews their stats. They gave up 100 to Alabama on a neutral site, and while Alabama is an elite offensive team, giving up 100 to anyone shows that your defense has flaws. Outside of that game against Alabama, this defense has not played anyone that can expose them. The Northwestern Wildcats should be able to do just that. Their four leading scorers are all shooting 36.4% or higher from three, so their ability to make shots, especially with leading scorer Brooks Barnhizer back in the mix is something that Illinois will struggle with. Tomislav Ivisic has been a solid rim protector and floor spacer, but they play Ben Humrichous 26 minutes a night and he will be tasked with guarding the versatile, breakout, Nick Martinelli who comes in averaging over 20 a game on elite shooting splits. The key for Illinois in this game will be containing these Northwestern guards and shotmakers and taking care of the basketball. The Illini turn it over 11 times a game, which is good for 270th in the country, but Northwestern is a defense that turns teams over nearly 14 times a night. Kasparas Jakucionis has been very good thus far as a freshman, but his turnovers have been a problem, averaging close to 4 a game. Northwestern will be energized for their conference home opener, especially on the defensive end against an Illinois team susceptible to turning it over, so if they can’t protect the basketball, it could be a tough night. The one thing that Northwestern’s defense is lacking is a rim protector, so Illinois should be attacking the hoop relentlessly. This is not their game, however, as they are top 10 in the country in both made and attempted threes per game. Even their 7-foot big man tends to float outside and attempts half his shots beyond the arc, which plays right into Illinois’ hands. If Illinois wants to pick up a road victory, they will need to contain the ball and force Northwestern to take tough twos while also taking care of the basketball at the offensive end so that Northwestern can’t get out in transition.

Outlook for Northwestern:

Since returning from injury, Brooks Barnhizer has stepped into the role of the go-to scorer for Northwestern perfectly. He is averaging 20.2 points on 47.2/38.9/92.9 shooting splits through five games. He also has Nick Martinelli and Ty Berry to support him, averaging 20.1 and 14.1 respectively. The offense was a bit of a question mark coming in with the loss of Buie, but the growth in the games of their returning players has turned out to be great. This offense certainly has not set the world on fire, as they are 235th in points per game and 108th in FG%, but they have been good enough to supplement their defense, especially with the efficiency of their top few scorers. The Northwestern defense is lacking a true rim protector, but they do have the perimeter defenders to bother Illinois. Luckily for the Wildcats, they won’t need a rim protector tonight unless Brad Underwood’s team completely changes the way that they play and plays through the paint more, but they do not really have the personnel to do that. Northwestern allows teams to shoot just 31.3% from beyond the arc, and they are playing a team that takes over 33 three-pointers a night and shoots it at just 35%. This bodes well for them because they have the guards, especially with Barnhizer, to get out and contest shooters while also keeping the ball in front, preventing them from getting downhill and exposing their lack of rim protection. Ivisic loves to float the three-point line, so his being away from the hoop plays into Northwestern’s hands. Northwestern is just outside the top 50 in offensive rebounds allowed per game, so they should be able to limit a team in Illinois that averages over 14 offensive rebounds a night. Illinois’ guards are susceptible to turnovers and Northwestern has the guards to match them and put pressure, especially behind a home crowd coming off a tough road loss at the buzzer. Expect the Wildcats to force Jakucionis and Boswell into tough situations, either making them take contested jumpers or turning the ball over. Nick Martinelli is the X-factor in this game. Illinois does not really have anyone to guard him, as it will likely be Ben Humrichous to start. It will be a good opportunity for Martinelli to get back on track and expose him after shooting the ball poorly last week. If Northwestern can make shots against this overrated Illinois defense and turn them over like they should be able to, then Northwestern has a great chance of winning their Big 10 home opener.

The Final Word:

Illinois enters this game as three-point favorites. The easy call would be to pick the Illini, but winning in Evanston will not be as easy as people might think. The Wildcat backcourt is much improved and can expose Brad Underwood’s defense with their efficient shot-making. Barnhizer and Martinelli should have good days against a unit that can’t defend them. The key will be Northwestern’s guards turning over the Illinois guards and being able to get out and contest a low-efficiency shooting attack. Illinois is going to take a lot of threes, so if Northwestern can limit second-chance opportunities that Illinois creates so much offense off, then they will send their in-state rival back home with a loss. While I am not 100% confident it will result in a Northwestern victory, I am confident that the Wildcats will be able to keep this game within the three-point spread.