#14 Gonzaga (9-3) vs. #22 UCLA (10-2)

Gonzaga enters this game at the Intuit Dome against UCLA at 9-3 coming off wins against Nicholls State and Bucknell following losses to Kentucky and UConn. This will be Gonzaga and UCLA’s first game in a week, so both teams should be well-rested. UCLA entered their holiday break with a heartbreaking loss at Madison Square Garden against North Carolina by two. That game marked the Bruins’ first loss since their early season game against New Mexico.  This will be another difficult test for both teams before they go into conference play. Where both teams haven’t played for a week, there may be a little rust to knock off, especially on the offensive end. Despite this game being in California and right in UCLA’s backyard, expect this to be a pro-Gonzaga crowd because the Bulldogs always travel well. Gonzaga needs this quality win after losing their last two key games, and UCLA is in danger of falling out of the top 25 if they can’t take down Mark Few’s squad.

Outlook for Gonzaga:

Gonzaga’s offense is no joke. They are ranked 1st in the country in points per game this season led by their guards of Nembhard, Hickman, and Battle, and their big men, Graham Ike, Braden Huff, and Ben Gregg. All six of those guys are averaging over 10 a game. Ryan Nembhard has been an elite playmaker for the Bulldogs, averaging over 10 assists a game and getting downhill to create for others at will. As stated above, not only does Mark Few’s squad play at a fast pace, but they play efficiently. They are in the top 25 in turnovers committed per game at just 9.8 despite the pace that they play. The UCLA defense is elite at turning teams over, as they force the second-most turnovers in the country at 18.4 The Gonzaga guards will need to take care of the basketball, play under control, and play off two feet in the paint against Mick Cronin’s defense. UCLA is not a team that you can jump to pass or take out of control shots in the paint against. The Bulldogs have great guards who make great decisions with the basketball night in and night out, which will always help them limit those turnover opportunities and allow the UCLA defense to generate offense in transition. The matchup between the Gonzaga bigs and UCLA’s Tyler Bilodeau will be crucial in this game. Bilodeau got into foul trouble last weekend against North Carolina and Ike and Huff should also be able to take him on the block, but the Bulldogs may struggle to guard Bilodeau, especially if he continues to shoot the three as well as he has. Luckily for Gonzaga, the UCLA offense is not very explosive and Bilodeau has been their only consistent player on that end, so they can focus their efforts there and let others beat them. Gonzaga’s pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop defense will be important in this game because that was when UCLA was at its best against North Carolina. The Bulldogs should have the energy of a semi-home crowd at the Intuit Dome. Look for Gonzaga’s defense to do enough, while their offense will be consistent enough because of their guard play and steady big men.

Outlook for UCLA:

The weakness of UCLA’s team is the strength of Gonzaga. The Bruins come into this game averaging the 114th most points in the country despite being in the top 60 in FG%. Mick Cronin’s team likes to keep a slow pace, limiting possessions and relying on the defense, which as we mentioned above, is forcing over 18 turnovers a night. They won’t be able to turn the Zags over like they did Carolina or some of their other opponents because Nembhard is one of the best true point guards in the country. Gonzaga’s defense is not top-tier by any stretch, but UCLA will need its defense to perform because its offense will not be able to get into a shootout with Mark Few’s squad. The best offense for UCLA typically is their defense getting them in transition. Based on last weekend, the Bruins should continue to play in pick and roll/pick and pop because they generated their best offense through the patient play of Sebastian Mack and Skyy Clark. It typically ended with a layup for the ball-handler, a lob, or a wide open three for someone. Granted, UCLA did shoot roughly 15% above their season average from three, so Gonzaga may be willing to give that shot up against a traditionally nonexplosive offense. UCLA needs to play through Tyler Bilodeau as much as they can because as long as he is out of foul trouble, he is by far their best player on the offensive end. He can score at all three levels and utilizes shot fakes and pivots to generate great shots. UCLA’s guard play is unsteady, to say the least, with Mack, Clark, and Dylan Andrews inconsistently producing all season. At the very least, they need to be great on the defensive end against Gonzaga because as I said above, they are not going to outscore the Bulldogs. If UCLA wants to leave the Intuit Dome with a win, they will need to turn Gonzaga over more than they typically do since they average half the number of turnovers than the Bruins force. UCLA’s offense is not good enough, so limiting possessions and playing at a slow pace will be especially important this evening. The Bruins need this win, but it will be a tall task at the Intuit Dome, considering they don’t even get a great environment for home games.

The Final Word:

This game feels like a tough spot for UCLA. They have had a long week after blowing the lead to UNC last weekend at Madison Square Garden. Now they have to turn around and play a top-15 team in Gonzaga that has the best offense in the country. UCLA is a good team, but they are extremely limited on the offensive end. Their defense can only do so much, especially against an elite offense. Gonzaga will be able to eventually expose this UCLA defense with the plethora of offensive weapons that they have. UCLA will likely go on scoring droughts at some point in this game, which will ultimately lead to Gonzaga breaking through. It wouldn’t be surprising if Gonzaga goes on multiple 8-12 point spurts. Look for Ryan Nembhard to put the Bruin defense in rotation all night. Gonzaga’s offense will prevail while their defense will control the ball and hold Kentucky to one shot, ultimately leading to a win. The 4.5-point spread is tough to lay in this type of matchup, especially against UCLA coming off a loss where they blew a double-digit lead, but that would be my lean. Expect Gonzaga to pick up a quality win at the Intuit Dome tonight.