Game of the Day for 11/18: Gonzaga at San Diego State

The Gonzaga Bulldogs will go on the road to face the San Diego State Aztecs at Viejas Arena in what could end up being a fun contest. These teams matched up last year in Spokane, and the Aztecs were the ones that walked away with an 84-74 victory as 7 point underdogs. The Bulldogs will be looking for revenge in this matchup and enter as an even heavier favorite this time around (11 point favorites).

Gonzaga has come out of the gates extremely hot to start the year, going 3-0 with 2 blowout victories. The most impressive of these wins came on opening night, where they blitzed the Baylor Bears 101-63 and put the whole country on notice from the get go. The Zags have plenty of offensive firepower all over the floor, whether that comes from the interior unit of Graham Ike, Braden Huff, and Ben Gregg or the elite perimeter group led by Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman, and Khalif Battle. Gonzaga is an extremely tough cover with all of their weapons, but their defense may have also taken a step forward. Everyone saw their energy on the defensive end against Baylor on opening night, and a lot of this has come from Pepperdine transfer Michael Ajayi, who looks like the “glue guy” that this team was lacking entering the year. The Zags look to have it all right now, and they are a tough out for anyone in the country. 

San Diego State is always a rock-solid team, especially on the defensive end. They always bring elite physicality that can compete with any power conference program, and they also have a great defensive game planner in Brian Dutcher, who is not afraid to make adjustments on the fly (and they typically work). Despite this, the Aztecs are a much different team than their Final Four and Sweet 16 teams from the last 2 years. Dutcher deserves a ton of credit for leading those teams deep into the tournament, but the offensive talent appears to be lacking on this year’s squad. All-American big man Jaedon LeDee is not walking through their door anymore (21.4 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and it doesn’t appear that they have found a replacement. The Aztecs struggled to break away from UC San Diego on opening night (63-58 win), so if they want to have a chance at taking down big names like Gonzaga, they will have to lean on their defense and physicality all year long. 

Areas to exploit for Gonzaga

Despite Gonzaga being a heavy favorite in this contest, it is not going to be easy to win convincingly in their first true road game of the year, especially in Viejas Arena. They clearly have more talent, and if they can completely out class the perimeter group of San Diego State, this won’t be much of a contest. Keeping the Aztecs off the offensive glass will also be key, as that is almost certainly where coach Dutcher will be looking to give his team some easy baskets. Gonzaga should be fine in this area, but their energy will need to be high for 40 minutes. There is a good chance that the Aztecs will be looking to pressure the Zags guards and try to force turnovers, but they have been rock solid taking care of the ball and I don’t see them being too bothered in this area. Outside of the first 10 minutes of this game where Gonzaga may feel a bit uncomfortable in their first road game, they should be fine as they are experienced and far more talented.

Areas to exploit of San Diego State

San Diego State’s power conference level physicality is what will allow them to hold strong in this game. Dutcher will most likely play 1 on 1 in the post against Ike and Huff, and this looks like the only strategy that gives them a fighting chance. Playing them 1 on 1 will allow them to not help off the Gonzaga perimeter threats, and the San Diego State big man length and depth should provide at least some resistance in the post up game. Trying to eliminate the 3 point efficiency of the Zags should turn this into a physical half court style that this team likes. 

If the Aztecs execute their defensive game plan, it will just come down to how they are going to score. I’ll be honest, there aren’t a ton of avenues in this area, but FAU transfer Nick Boyd will be running the show and needs to be great in this contest. Boyd might be able to exploit guys like Nembhard and Hickman off the bounce, but he will essentially have to play a perfect game for them to win a higher scoring affair. The interior game of Jared Coleman-Jones is an area they could go as well, as he has a versatile offensive skill set and could potentially pull Ike or Gregg away from the basket to create driving lanes for others. 

The Final Word

Hopefully this ends up being an entertaining game, as the rest of Monday’s slate doesn’t look so appealing. But at the end of the day, Gonzaga is most likely too talented on the offensive side of the ball to go through the scoring droughts the Aztecs will need to win this game. San Diego State will surely hit a 3-4 minute scoring drought in this contest, and that may ultimately be the difference maker. I expect this game to be close for a good portion, but the Zags could go on a few late scoring runs that give them a comfortable win. Gonzaga wins 78-69.