#7 Gonzaga (7-1) vs. #4 Kentucky (7-1)

Gonzaga comes into this neutral site game in Seattle against Kentucky at 7-1 after a disappointing result at the Battle 4 Atlantis last week. The Bulldogs lost in the first round to West Virginia, who is not expected to be very good this season despite their solid start. As for Mark Pope’s Wildcats, they were undefeated and sitting at fourth in the country until their loss at Clemson on Tuesday. That loss will knock them out of the top 5, which is not where they belong. They have another difficult test in what is essentially a road game against Gonzaga. Kentucky has fans all over and they travel well, but this game is in Gonzaga’s backyard so expect a pro-Bulldogs crowd. Kentucky will need to bounce back in a big way if they want to salvage slipping too far in Monday's rankings.

Outlook for Kentucky:

Kentucky enters this game as a massive underdog at +6.5. This game should be fun with plenty of offense and three-point shooting. Kentucky is taking close to 30 threes a game and they are 11th in shot attempts per game, so the pace they play at is very fast. This has them first in points per game in the country at 92.9. This team has legit shooters in Otega Oweh and Koby Brea, among others. Otega Oweh has been awesome for the Wildcats after transferring from Oklahoma in the offseason. He is leading Kentucky in scoring at 16 a game while shooting it at over 50% from the field. For as fast a pace as Pope’s team plays, they don’t turn the ball over very much. They average 10.4 turnovers a game, which is good for 311th most in the country. Kentucky should be able to handle the guards of Gonzaga who force close to 14 turnovers a game, but don’t be surprised if they turn it over more tonight than they typically do. On the defensive end, the Wildcats are being extremely overvalued. Take their game against Clemson the other night as an example. Schieffelin of Clemson was left wide open by this defense and had a bad game shooting the ball. They have been extremely fortunate all season with teams having bad shooting nights against them, so they are due for some negative shooting regression on the defensive end. Gonzaga is a team that this Kentucky defense does not want to see. They are 123rd in scoring defense at 68.4 points per game, but Gonzaga is 5th in the country at 90.4% and is 42nd in FG%. The Kentucky defense needs to be locked in for this one, especially on the ball, and continue to protect the rim at an elite level (8th most blocks in the country), or they will be in for a long night. Their defensive rotations will need to be on point because Nembhard, Hickman, and Battle are going to get downhill and spray the ball to open shooters. Kentucky will need to continue to score efficiently in what should be a track meet tonight in Seattle, but the tipping point will be Kentucky’s defense versus the Gonzaga offense.

Outlook for Gonzaga:

Gonzaga’s offense has never been the problem for this team. They are 5th in the country in points per game yet again this season led by their guards of Nembhard, Hickman, and Battle, and their big men, Graham Ike and Braden Huff. All five of those guys are averaging over 10 a game and Ben Gregg is averaging 9.5. Andrew Nembhard has been an elite playmaker for the Bulldogs, averaging close to 11 assists a game and getting downhill to create for others at will. As stated above, not only does Mark Few’s Squad play at a fast pace, but they play efficiently. They are in the top 15 in turnovers committed per game at just 9.4 despite the pace that they play, and Kentucky does not do a great job turning teams over, so don’t expect that to be an issue tonight. The Bulldogs have great guards who make great decisions with the basketball night in and night out, which will put them in a great spot against this overrated Kentucky defense. Both teams rebound the ball well, so it should be an even matchup in regards to that. There also isn’t a great matchup for Kentucky on Graham Ike. Ike is super skilled offensively with his patience and footwork, so he should be able to create tons of opportunities for himself and others with the attention that he draws. Gonzaga’s defense will be put to the test here, but Kentucky is not a team that will play through the post very much, so it will just be up to their guards to close out to shooters and contain the basketball. Ike is capable of guarding someone like Andrew Carr off the bounce, which may mean fewer minutes for Braden Huff tonight. Gonzaga has athletic guards that can run teams off the line while also keeping the ball in front of them. They will also have the energy of a semi-home crowd in Seattle, which bodes well for them defensively as well. Look for Gonzaga’s defense to do enough, while their offense will get whatever it wants against this Kentucky team. If they do that, they should make the short trip back to Spokane with a win.

The Final Word:

This game feels like an uphill battle for Kentucky. They have had a tough week with a road game at Clemson on Tuesday and now traveling across the country to play one of the best teams in the country in Gonzaga in what is basically a road game. Kentucky is a good team, but they have been extremely overvalued so far because of their win over Duke in the Champions Classic. Gonzaga will be able to finally expose this Kentucky defense with the plethora of offensive weapons that they have. Look for Graham Ike and Andrew Nembhard to have great games with the Wildcat defense in rotation all night. This game will be a high-scoring affair, but it will be Gonzaga’s offense that prevails while their defense controls the ball enough and holds Kentucky to one shot, ultimately leading to a win. The 6.5-point spread is a lot to lay on Gonzaga, especially against Kentucky coming off a loss, but that would be my lean. Expect Gonzaga to win comfortably in Seattle tonight.