Game of the Day 11/14: Arizona State vs Grand Canyon

The Arizona State Sun Devils will meet up with the Grand Canyon Antelopes in a neutral site contest at the Footprint Center in Phoenix. This isn’t much of a trip for either one of these teams, so we should see a 50/50 split when it comes to fans. It is not too common to see a mid-major like Grand Canyon enter the game as a sizable favorite against a power conference team, but that is exactly what we have here with the Antelopes being 5.5 point favorites at the time of writing. 

Bryce Drew has had a fair amount of success during his time running the Grand Canyon program. Drew has taken the Antelopes to the NCAA tournament in 3 of the 4 years at the helm and also won a tournament game for the first time last season. Even with the success he’s had, this program has probably never had higher expectations than they do in the 2024-25 season. The Lopes are returning essentially their entire roster, including the fantastic perimeter trio of Tyon Grant-Foster, Ray Harrison, and Collin Moore, who can give almost any opposing perimeter group in the country issues on both ends of the floor. They did lose their Swiss army knife in Gabe McGlothan, but found a solid replacement in TCU transfer Jakobe Coles, who most likely provides more offensive upside. 

The Lopes have started the season 2-0, but they haven’t seemed to bring their “A-game” just yet. They beat a mediocre Cal State Fullerton team by just 10, and they were trailing against Western Kentucky for almost the entire game, but a late run pushed them over the top, capped by a Ray Harrison layup with less than 5 seconds in the game to take the lead. To be fair, GCU was without Grant-Foster for the first 2 contests, but they looked sloppy, nonetheless. The Sun Devils will give them their first real test of the season, so they will need to clean some things up and hope Grant-Foster isn’t too rusty in his first game action of the season. 

The Sun Devils are enduring a ton of roster turnover this season, especially in the scoring department. Hurley was able to replace the losses of Frankie Collins, Jamiya Neal, and Jose Perez with possibly more talented scorers, led by Missouri State transfer Alston Mason. The lack of continuity was evident in their preseason action, as they went to Cameron Indoor and were blitzed by the Blue Devils, losing 103-47. While preseason action isn’t indicative of how you will play in the regular season, ASU followed up that performance with just a 7-point victory over Idaho State, who ranks 261st in KenPom. However, the Sun Devils followed up their poor performances with 2 solid ones, taking down dark horse WCC candidate Santa Clara 81-74 and then went to Spokane and nearly defeated the Gonzaga Bulldogs on the road (lost 88-80). While we have had a mixed bag of performances from ASU, this group may be starting to click and may not go away easily against this Antelopes team. 

Areas to exploit for Grand Canyon:

The biggest advantage Grand Canyon will have in this game is with their athleticism on the perimeter. Having this type of edge as a mid-major program is massive and rare when facing power conference teams, whether you are the betting favorite or not. The aforementioned GCU guard trio should give ASU’s smaller and less defensively gifted perimeter a tough time on both sides of the floor. Alston Mason will most likely get picked on often, whether it’s in isolation or in ball screens, as he is at a significant size disadvantage. GCU also has the roster continuity edge in this contest, which has shown to go a long way for many teams across the country early in the season. 

Areas to exploit for Arizona State:

Bobby Hurley’s defenses are typically very aggressive and active on the perimeter, and this could give the Lopes some issues due to their suspect ball security (230th nationally in turnover rate last season). Winning the turnover battle on a neutral floor typically gives you an edge, as you will see teams shoot below expectations more often than not due to a lack of venue familiarity. ASU’s turnover margin hasn’t been great to start the year, but they have been perennially great in this area under Hurley. The Sun Devil’s are probably the better shooting team as well, and although the Lopes have more overall talent on the perimeter, they aren’t known as great shooters. If ASU can get hot from downtown they can absolutely walk away with a win on Thursday night.

The Final Word:

On a night where the overall game slate is weak, it is a good opportunity to watch one of the premier mid-major programs on national television. While a lot of opinions will be formed by outsiders on the Lopes based on this one performance, we should all know that this team will be lurking by March and looking to grab an at-large bid. This win could go a long way for Bryce Drew’s squad, but the Sun Devils will not give up this game easily, and I do expect a back and forth battle at the Footprint Center. My official prediction will be Grand Canyon walking away with a victory, but with a very tight margin of victory.