Futures Check-in: Conference Title Edition

With conference play about to be in full force in the coming few days, this can be viewed as an opportunity to deep dive regular season conference title futures. A few of the major conferences are already 1 or 2 games into their schedule, but there is still value to be had across the board. In this article, we will give our opinion on most of the power conferences, along with giving out a few extra bets from some of the higher mid-major leagues. 

Houston to win the Big 12 (+210)

In a conference that looks like a 3-horse race between Iowa State, Kansas, and Houston, I will take the team that has the highest floor in the Houston Cougars. Coach Kelvin Sampson always has his defense among the elites and this season is no different, as they are top 3 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. They force turnovers at an elite rate (23rd nationally) and have the top 2 point field goal percentage defense in the entire country, and this style of play will give anyone in this conference major issues. The offense has been the weaker side of the ball for the Cougars so far this season, but their ability to take care of the ball along with getting all over the offensive glass (17th OREB% nationally) will absolutely play up in road games, just as it did a season ago (7-3 conference record in 2023-24 road games).

This is also a Cougars team that seems a bit underrated at this point. They are 0-3 in their biggest games this season and lost 2 of them in overtime to Alabama and San Diego State, but they were in control of the #2 team in the AP Poll in Auburn before losing the lead late. You can either attribute these losses to poor late game execution or being fairly unlucky, and I am willing to say it is the ladder reason for Houston’s “poor” start. They have looked fantastic outside of a few spurts in these 3 games, as they are still smashing buy game competition and still have a very similar identity to past Houston teams that have ranked inside KenPom’s top 5 in each of the last 5 seasons, including this season (4th in KenPom). 

One final note on Houston is the early portion of their conference schedule. There is a great chance for the Cougars to start Big 12 play 7-0, as they are projected as double digit favorites in all 7 of these games, per Torvik. Kansas and Iowa State have much more difficult early season schedules, including a matchup between each other at Hilton Coliseum on January 15th. This is why now could be the time to back this underrated Houston squad at their current price, and we could be looking at them as odds on favorites by the time late January comes around. Houston’s schedule gets tougher down the stretch of the season, so there could be potential hedge opportunities later on.       

Texas A&M to win the SEC (+3500)

In a conference that is loaded with top tier teams, it makes more sense to look down the odds board at a team like Texas A&M. Like Houston, the Aggies are another team that profiles well in road games with their ability to win the turnover and rebound battle. The Aggies are 10-8 in SEC road games the last 2 seasons, which is far better than many other teams in this league can say. 

Unlike the other top teams in this league, the Aggies have a fortunate schedule. Per Torvik, Texas A&M has the third easiest conference schedule, as the only teams they have to play twice are Texas, Oklahoma, and LSU. Texas and Oklahoma are middle of the pack SEC teams at best in my eyes, and LSU is considered by many to be at the bottom of the league. Another major scheduling break for A&M is getting to play both Auburn and Tennessee at home late in the season. Not having to travel to the consensus top 2 teams in the country’s home arenas is massive for a team when it comes to competing for a conference championship, and that is exactly what we have here. At +3500, the number is too good not to back the defense and offensive rebounding ability of Buzz William’s squad, who can easily steal the regular season conference title in what will be a bloodbath of a league.

Illinois to win the Big Ten (+850)

Conference play has already started in the Big Ten, as most teams have already played 2 league games, but the favorites on the odds board are significantly overvalued in my eyes. Despite Michigan and UCLA starting 2-0 and both of them having a conference road win, I do not view them as the favorites in this league.

Starting with Michigan, they have been flying up Torvik and KenPom’s ratings but have really struggled when it comes to ball security and rebounding. These 2 areas have come back to bite them in their biggest games, and it doesn’t look like they will be fixing these issues any time soon. The guard play of Tre Donaldson, Roddy Gayle Jr., and Nimari Burnett has been extremely erratic, and Danny Wolf taking on a lot of the playmaking duties hasn’t helped. A lot of their ball security issues have been masked against inferior competition due to their dominance inside the arc (1st nationally in 2pt FG%), but this area has reared its ugly head in their biggest games this season.

As for UCLA, the offense could just be flat out not good enough to win the league. Per KenPom, they are the 60th best offense in the nation, and this is with guys like Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey, and Dylan Andrews shooting significantly higher than their career averages. There is a good chance the shooting regresses sooner rather than later, and that is bad news for an offense that is already not top tier. UCLA also seems to have a major disadvantage in conference play when it comes to 2 areas: scheduling and their home environment. While the Bruins have a weaker overall strength of schedule that includes playing west coast opponents Washington and USC twice, their travel situation and lack of an elite home court puts them at a disadvantage. The Big Ten is known for having some of the best home court advantages in the country, but these west coast teams like UCLA and Oregon may not be able to hold serve at home as often with their lack of attendance at times.     

Illinois is the top team in this league according to my power ratings, so +850 is a valuable number despite them already being a game behind in conference play. The Illini have plenty of balance, whether that is in the scoring department or on the defensive end. Kasparas Jakucionis and Tomislav Ivisic have already shown plenty of flashes of excellence in their first college seasons, and this is an Illini squad that has more upside than anyone else in the Big Ten, if not the entire country. The scoring talent across the board along with their 11th rated defense (KenPom) leads me to believe this is a valuable bet to make early in the conference season, as this number could be long gone if Brad Underwood’s team picks up a marquee win or 2. 

Florida Atlantic to win the American (+1100)

Memphis is a team to fade as a big favorite, and that is no different when looking at the futures odds board. The Memphis Tigers currently sit as the odds on favorite to win the AAC at -160, and these odds are far too short for a team that has fallen short of expectations in conference play almost every year under Penny Hardaway. All you need to do is look back at last season when the Tigers were a favorite to win the league and went 6-2 against power teams prior to league play. They proceeded to finish 5th in the AAC with an 11-7 record, and had a stretch where they lost 6 out of 9 games including 4 in a row.

Despite Memphis looking far and away like the top team in the American, their league play woes should give people confidence to back another team down the odds board, and that team is the Florida Atlantic Owls. FAU easily has the most upside in the league with their scoring talent. There is no weak link on the floor when it comes to offense, and the Owls are an especially tough cover on the perimeter with guys like LeLand Walker, Kaleb Glenn, and Niccolo Moretti providing 3-level scoring. Former Baylor assistant and now Owl head coach John Jakus has this offense humming, and it is also a team that is due for some positive 3-point regression on the defensive end. They have struggled a bit on the defensive end to start the year (173rd in KenPom defensive efficiency), but giving up nearly a 40% 3-point clip is most likely not sustainable to allow. Expect the defense to improve as the year goes on to give the Owls a chance to compete near the top of this conference.    

St. Bonaventure to win the A-10 (+1300)

VCU and Dayton are certainly the 2 favorites to win the regular season crown in the A-10, but their conference schedules didn’t do them any favors. The Flyers and Rams have the 2 toughest rated schedules of any top 7 A-10 team, per Torvik, including 2 matchups against each other. Add in the vulnerability of the VCU offense and Dayton defense, and this should create a window of opportunity for a 3rd team to get in the mix.

Enter St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies have far exceeded expectations early on this season behind their athletic defense. The core of Lajae Jones, Melvin Council, and Chance Moore have led an elite defensive group to the 36th rated unit, per Torvik, and they can absolutely compete with the likes of Dayton and VCU. The offensive side is a slight concern and could keep lesser competition in games (141st in adjusted offense), but being able to win on any given night behind their defense is something I am willing to bet on.   

The Bonnies also caught a major scheduling break. Though they have to play VCU twice, with their first meeting being at home on 12/31, they only have to play Dayton once at home and avoided playing any other top half A-10 team twice. 2 matchups with UMass, Duquesne, and Fordham may allow them to stay in the regular season title picture, and they could easily go 6-0 against that portion of their schedule. A potential home win against VCU in their A-10 opener would also go a long way and would almost certainly shorten their odds to win the conference.