Baylor Bears

2023-2024 Result: 24-11 record (11-7 Big 12), NCAA tournament appearance

Projected Starting Lineup

Head Coach: Scott Drew (23rd season)

Guard: Jeremy Roach (5th year)

Guard: Jayden Nunn (SR)

Guard: VJ Edgecombe (FR)

Forward: Norchad Omier (5th year)

Center: Josh Ojianwuna (JR)

Key Losses

Jalen Bridges

Ja’Kobe Walter

Yves Missi

RayJ Dennis

Miro Little

Key Additions

Jeremy Roach (Duke)

Norchad Omier (Miami)

Jalen Celestine (California)

VJ Edgecombe (5-star recruit)

Robert Wright III (4-star recruit)

Jason Asemota (4-star recruit)

Offense has never been the issue at Baylor since Scott Drew took over, and the Bears should be elite on this end once again. The scoring depth and guard talent has been the biggest key to success for this offense, and they have reloaded once again by adding Jeremy Roach from Duke and 5-star recruit VJ Edgecombe. It’s typically a big concern when a program loses a veteran starting point guard, but the loss of RayJ Dennis shouldn’t sting too much. Adding Roach obviously makes it an easy transition, but having a true point guard isn’t necessarily a priority for this team's makeup, as they have plenty of elite ball handling guards that shoot well and can play off of each other at a high level. The frontcourt also projects to be great on the offensive side of the floor, as Miami transfer Norchad Omier is a great rim presence and offensive rebounder, and he will most likely be paired with Josh Ojianwuna who brings an offensive rebounding punch of his own. There is a slight concern with how they will make the frontcourt work due to the fact that neither of these bigs space the floor at a high level. Omier did shoot 24-68 from 3 last season, but he needs a lot of time and space to get his shot off so that skill probably doesn’t translate if he’s playing power forward. If he plays his natural center position, these slight concerns go out the window as the Bears have a lot of shooting depth options on the bench (Celestine, Love, Asemota). Baylor has enough scoring talent to make everything work out at the end of the day, and there is a good chance they will finish as a top 10 offense once again.

The defensive side of the floor is where the Bears have really struggled over the last few seasons. Their inability to force turnovers at a high level has been the main reason for the decline to being outside the top 75 in adjusted defense the last 2 seasons, but there is some added upside for Baylor to improve in this area. The backcourt of Roach, Nunn, and Edgecombe provides the most lateral quickness and athleticism that coach Drew has had since his 2022 team, so they can get back to their turnover forcing ways to some degree. Defending inside the arc has been another issue Baylor has had over the last few seasons, as they've ranked outside the top 250 in 2 point field goal percentage the last 2 seasons. Baylor has always been solid at preventing teams from getting to the rim (89th percentile in 2 point FGA% last season), but it’s the lack of resistance once teams get there that’s been the issue. Playing the 2 big lineups of Omier and Ojianwuna could really help with the rim defense, but it remains to be seen if this combo can work well together. Omier being able to play the power forward position is probably the biggest swing skill of the entire roster, and while he lacks some lateral quickness for a 4 man, his overall athleticism should allow him to play this position in short bursts at the very least. It will be something to monitor, but if Omier has to play most of his minutes as the center, the defense may end up in the same spot as the last 2 seasons due to this roster not having any decent wing defenders. Overall, there is optimism for the Baylor defense, which is more than most people could say about last year’s unit.

Although Baylor has been a 3 seed in each of the last 2 NCAA tournaments, it hasn’t felt like they’ve been in the national championship conversation due to the porous defense. The Bears may have the recipe to flip the script this upcoming season and put themselves back into the national championship conversation with the improved defensive unit, but they still are a small step behind the college basketball elites. There is also an outside chance of winning the Big 12, but they should be rated slightly behind the frontrunners of Kansas, Houston and Iowa State.