Best Bets 12/8

Texas A&M vs Texas Tech (-1)

Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX

3:00 pm EST on ESPN2

An exciting in-state matchup will be held in Fort Worth, as the Texas A&M Aggies will face the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Aggies come into this game with a 7-2 record and have been battle tested throughout. 5 of their 9 games have come against power conference opponents, and they have wins over Ohio State, Creighton, and Rutgers, so we know what this team is capable of. As for Texas Tech, this is their first real chance at a statement win. The Red Raiders have obliterated their buy game opponents, winning these games by an average of 32 points per game, but they did have one slip up against Saint Joseph’s on a neutral floor so they currently sit at 7-1. Tech comes into this game as a bit of an unknown with their best win coming in a 14 point victory over DePaul, but it’s the Red Raiders that we will be making a case for as a small favorite.

The uncertainty of Texas Tech is what gives some value to this number. Firstly, I am willing to give a free pass for the loss to Saint Joseph’s, as the 3-point shooting splits were drastically against them (Tech 4-20, St. Joe’s 12-22). This is a Red Raiders squad that has a plethora of shooters at their disposal and that game was more of an anomaly in my eyes. Chance McMillian, Kerwin Walton, Christian Anderson, and Kevin Overton are all high quality shooters that can give this Aggies defense some major problems, as the Aggies allow spot up opportunities in the 94th percentile, per Synergy. The Aggies also allow 53% of opponents catch and shoot opportunities to be unguarded (87th percentile), and that is bad news against a Red Raider offense that excels in this area, rating in the 90th percentile in points per possession on catch and shoot chances. 

Texas Tech’s offense will have chances on the glass, as the 2-headed monster of JT Toppin (22.5% OREB rate), and Federiko Federiko (12.6% OREB rate) may be able to match Texas A&M rebound for rebound. This is another key factor, as this is how the Aggies separate themselves in most contests, but the rebound battle potentially being close will give them less areas to be successful. It’s a bad matchup defensively for the Aggies, and it may not be the best on offense either. Texas Tech has plenty of bodies to throw at do-it-all guard Wade Taylor, who could struggle to find mismatches against a more athletic and versatile defense. A&M leans on 2 areas: Wade Taylor and the offensive glass, but if those avenues are closed off to an extent, it could be a long day for them. 

Texas A&M is typically a feisty underdog due to their physicality edge, but Texas Tech will be up to the task today. This was a Red Raiders team that I was particularly high on entering the season, and this is their first real chance to prove my preseason priors to be correct. They don’t seem to have many weaknesses on either end, and coach Grant McCasland is one of the most brilliant minds in the game. Give me the Red Raiders to grab a statement win and finally garner some national attention.  

Best Bet: Texas Tech -1, play to -3

UCLA at Oregon (-3.5)

Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR

6:00 pm EST on BTN

In a Pac-12, I mean, Big Ten matchup, we will see the UCLA Bruins visit the #12 ranked Oregon Ducks in Eugene. These teams enter this contest with a combined record of 16-1, but the paths to their respective records have been far different. UCLA just played their second non-buy game opponent on Tuesday night, beating Washington by 11 in their conference opener. Their only other real competition this season was against New Mexico on a neutral site, and they lost this contest 82-74, so this Bruins team could be perceived as a bit of a mystery. As for the Ducks, their schedule has been much tougher to start the year. They began the season with 4 buy games, but the Ducks last 5 games have all been against power conference competition and they remain unblemished. Wins over rival Oregon State and 3 consecutive wins in the Players Era Festival over Texas A&M, San Diego State, and Alabama have this team at #12 in the AP Poll, and they couldn’t be riding any higher. Despite this success, we will be fading the Ducks on their home floor Sunday evening.

The Ducks have obviously exceeded expectations to start the year, but there are holes to poke in this resume. Firstly, they have had plenty of close calls. In 4 of their 9 contests, the Ducks have fallen behind by double digits and have needed heroic comebacks to retain their unblemished record. While it is impressive that they were able to go on big runs and come out with victories, there is a luck aspect to this. Not being able to consistently outplay your competition can be a sign that you may not be as great of a team as you are perceived to be, and I believe that is what we have here with Oregon. The Ducks are also due for some negative 3-point regression on the defensive end, as teams are shooting just 29% from beyond the arc and they are allowing a 42.4% 3-point attempt rate (261st nationally). 

I can’t say there are many great matchup angles in this game, but getting the defensive minded UCLA Bruins as an underdog is intriguing. They rank 4th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and should make life extremely tough on the Ducks, who haven’t seen a defense of this caliber yet this season. Mick Cronin’s squad will be looking for their first big win of the season, and they might just get it on the road in Eugene. Back the Bruins in a buy low/sell high spot.

Best Bet: UCLA +3.5, play to +2.5