Best Bets 12/7
Clemson at Miami (+5)
Watsco Center, Coral Gables, FL
12:00 pm EST on ESPN2
In both team’s ACC opener, the Clemson Tigers will head to Coral Gables to take on the desperate Miami Hurricanes. I say the Canes are desperate because they are coming off 5 straight losses, including losses to Drake and Charleston Southern. Clemson is in a much different spot, as they are coming off what is easily their biggest win of the season, taking down the #4 ranked Kentucky Wildcats on Tuesday night. It is safe to say that these teams are going into conference play in completely different situations, but this may create some value on the number in a conference tilt.
This is a painful bet to make, but I will be siding with Miami here. It has been a rough go early on and there haven’t been many positives to discuss, but the matchup could be favorable. Miami has the perimeter firepower to give Clemson’s “shell-like” defense some problems, as the Tigers prefer to take away the rim and force teams to win from the outside. This is good news, as Miami’s perimeter shooting talent is arguably their best trait. Guys like Nijel Pack, Jalen Blackmon, Matthew Cleveland, and Brandon Johnson all have what it takes to space out this less athletically gifted Clemson defense. Miami being able to contain Clemson on the glass is another important factor, as the Tigers have leaned on their rebounding ability and gritty nature to win big games this year. Lynn Kidd, Brandon Johnson, and Matthew Cleveland provide the positional length and size to contend with the likes of Ian Schieffelin and Viktor Lahkin, and Miami’s bigs should bring even more fight in a desperation spot.
I like to call this type of game a “Kitchen Sink” spot for the Hurricanes, as they couldn’t be any more desperate for a marquee win. Coach Larranaga’s squad has been terrible defensively to begin the season, but they also have been a bit unlucky defending the 3-point line. Teams are shooting 43% from beyond the arc in their last 4 losses, and Miami is only giving up an unguarded 3 point rate in the 22nd percentile, so we should expect that to even out for the Canes over time. Hopefully today is the day it starts for Miami, because their at-large bid chances are seemingly already gone unless they go on a massive run in the ACC. Let’s back the more motivated Canes squad on Saturday.
Best Bet: Miami +5, play to +3.5
Wisconsin at Marquette (-7)
Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
1:30 pm EST on FOX
Another edition of the I-94 rivalry will take place in Milwaukee on Saturday, as the Wisconsin Badgers will take on the Marquette Golden Eagles. This is always one of the most fun rivalry games of the non-conference schedule, and it has been especially great the last few seasons with these teams being more evenly matched. Both teams are coming into this game off losses, as Wisconsin dropped their Big Ten opener at home to Michigan, and Marquette fell to Iowa State as part of the Big East-Big 12 Battle. Regardless of these results, there was never going to be a motivation edge on either side in a heated rivalry. Wisconsin has won the last 3 meetings, including last year's double digit victory in the Kohl Center.
Wisconsin winning the last 3 meetings in this rivalry leads me to believe that this is a favorable matchup for them. Firstly, the Badgers always take care of the ball at an elite rate, ranking 10th in the country in offensive turnover rate (13.3% TO rate). This is key against a Marquette defense that relies heavily on forcing turnovers to create their value, as they don’t grade out extremely well in many other areas. The Badgers can also have success on the glass with their bigger frontcourt duo of Nolan Winter and Steven Crowl. The 7 foot tall Winter can especially have success on the offensive glass, as he carries a 10% OREB rate and will have 6’7” David Joplin covering him for large portions of this contest. These 2 factors lead me to believe that Wisconsin can cut through this Golden Eagle defense fairly easily, and that has been the case in their most recent meetings. The Badgers Adjusted Offensive Rating being 117 or better in their last 3 wins over Marquette isn’t by mistake (Torvik).
Marquette could certainly have offensive success of their own with Kam Jones running the show, and there probably isn’t a real candidate on the Badgers to contain him 1-on-1. Wisconsin will try their best to take Jones’ opportunities away, and that could work in this game with the Golden Eagles most likely being without Chase Ross. Ross is extremely important to this team on both ends of the floor, and Marquette’s guard play drops off quickly when they have to go deeper into their bench. Tre Norman and Zaide Lowery haven’t been great so far, so consider this a major downgrade for Shaka Smart’s squad today. The supporting cast for Jones hasn’t been great in general this season, and that will make it tough for them to win by a significant margin.
Badgers coach Greg Gard has been solid in his career as a sizable underdog, going 21-13 ATS as a dog of 5.5 or more (62%). The slow pace Wisconsin prefers to play keeps them in games at a higher rate than most, and that is what we should expect in this matchup as well. They may not win a 4th straight game in the I-94 rivalry, but the Badgers can certainly keep this game tight throughout.
Best Bet: Wisconsin +7, play to +6