Best Bets 12/5

Purdue at Penn State (-1.5)

Bryce Jordan Center, University Park, PA

6:30 pm EST on FS1

Big Ten play is underway this week, and with that comes a great matchup in University Park, PA where the Purdue Boilermakers will take on the Penn State Nittany Lions. Both teams enter this contest with a 7-1 record, but it is Purdue that has the more impressive resume with wins over Alabama and Ole Miss. The Big Ten home court advantage means a lot and arguably is the most valuable home court among the power conferences, but this looks to be an inefficient number on the spread.

Penn State has been respected by the market a fair amount this season but has yet to prove much of anything. Their best win of the season is a 22 point win over Virginia Tech that hasn’t aged well at all with the Hokies sitting at just 3-5 on the young season. The Nittany Lions added a few pieces through the portal this off season in shot blocker Yanic Konan Niederhauser and a former 4-star Tennessee recruit in Freddie Dilione, but these additions are not enough to give this much respect to a team that finished 16-17 overall last year. Their analytical profile looks to be a bit skewed as well. They have beat up on poor competition that doesn’t take care of the ball well, and that type of matchup suits coach Mike Rhoades fast paced, aggressive turnover forcing defense well.

Purdue’s kryptonite has been ball security against pressure defenses, and that ultimately could bite them again, but they still have other advantages in this contest. Their high assist rate (68.1%, 6th nationally) to go along with their rebounding ability gives them a great chance to walk out of University Park with a win, due to the Nittany Lions struggling in these 2 areas (295th nationally in assist rate allowed). Trusting the combination of Braden Smith and Trey Kaufmann-Renn looks to be a good idea, as they have proven themselves to be elite in big games. Let’s back the Boilermakers to come out with a statement win and start 1-0 in conference play.  

Best Bet: Purdue +1.5 or ML

Another bet to consider is Arkansas State -15 vs Jackson State. The Red Wolves are coming off back-to-back losses to solid mid-major teams in Rice and Hofstra by a combined 10 points, but they shot uncharacteristically poor from 3, going 9-45 (20%) from beyond the arc this weekend. Perimeter weapons Kobe Julien and Derrion Ford are shooting well below expectation, and they are due for some major positive shooting regression. Jackson State allows plenty of spot up opportunities (98th percentile in spot up frequency allowed), so expect Arkansas State to take advantage of that.

Red Wolves center Izaiyah Nelson is now playing his full share of minutes after missing the first 5 games of the season due to injury, and he will help offset the one area that Jackson State can succeed on the glass. Nelson is also their top rim protector by a decent margin.  

The big spread isn’t much of a concern to me, as both teams like to get up and down, further creating the possibility of a blowout. This is also a “get right” spot for the Red Wolves after the 2 consecutive losses, so even with a matchup against Memphis on deck, this should be a focused Brian Hodgson led squad. 

Best Bet: Arkansas State -15, bet to -17