Best Bets 12/4

Ohio State at Maryland (-5.5)

XFINITY Center, College Park, MD

6:30 pm EST on BTN

Big Ten play is officially underway, and we have a good matchup in store on Wednesday, as the Ohio State Buckeyes will visit College Park to take on the Maryland Terrapins. Both teams have had relatively positive starts to the season, as Ohio State sits at 5-2 on the season, but is coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss at home to Pittsburgh. Maryland is currently 7-1 with their only blemish being a home loss to #5 ranked Marquette. This should be a fun game between 2 teams that are considered to be in the top half of the Big Ten when it’s all said and done (But who knows, this conference is a toss up).

Maryland has real advantages in this game, and it starts with the frontcourt. Julian Reese and Derik Queen look to be a problem for an Ohio State front line that is extremely thin due to the absence of Aaron Bradshaw. Buckeye head coach Jake Diebler has elected to play small for large stretches, going with Devin Royal and Evan Mahaffey as his “bigs”, but they only stand 6’6” tall. Ohio State was exposed by a solid Pittsburgh frontcourt last game, giving up a 42% offensive rebound rate. We should expect similar production and a big day from the Terrapins frontcourt. This aspect may also force coach Diebler to make adjustments to his rotation and defensive scheme, but going with guys like Sean Stewart and Austin Parks for extended minutes may hurt the offensive versatility that makes this Buckeye team great on that end. However, double teams from the Buckeyes will allow Queen and Reese, who are great passing big men, to find their shooters in Jakobi Gillespie, Selton Miguel, and Rodney Rice, which will further break down Diebler’s defense. 

The Terrapins also have what it takes to at least contain the explosive backcourt of the Buckeyes. Guys like Jakobi Gillespie, DeShawn Harris-Smith, and Jayhlon Young have what it takes to guard 1 on 1 and make life difficult on Ohio State’s perimeter offense. Even if the versatility of Ohio State gives Maryland’s defense problems for portions of this game, depth pieces Jordan Geronimo and Tafara Gapare can guard the quicker Buckeye frontcourt in space.  

Ohio State could still find offensive success when pulling Maryland’s big men away from the basket, but Maryland still has plenty more advantages in this contest. The pace and efficiency projects to be high in my opinion, so I will be taking the over of 147.5 points along with laying the -5.5 with Maryland. Expect the Terrapins to pick up their first signature win of the season tonight in College Park.

Best Bet: Maryland -5.5 (1 unit), Over 147.5 (0.5 units)

Marquette at Iowa State (-5.5)

Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA

8:00 pm EST on ESPN+

A top 10 matchup will take place in Ames, Iowa, where Shaka Smart and the Marquette Golden Eagles will battle the Iowa State Cyclones. Firstly, it should be a crime for this game to only be on ESPN+, but at least it will be taking place in any capacity. Marquette enters this contest undefeated, with impressive wins over Purdue, Maryland, and Georgia. Iowa State is coming off a solid showing at the Maui invitational, going 2-1 and nearly taking down #2 ranked Auburn in the opening round. This game has a buy low/sell high spot written all over it, and we should take advantage.

Marquette’s value couldn’t be any higher at this point in the season. The Golden Eagles have jumped out to an 8-0 start backed by their elite turnover forcing defense and their national player of the year candidate in Kam Jones. However, it may be a bit more difficult for Marquette to force turnovers in this game, as the Cyclones take care of the ball better than most teams in the country (6th nationally in TO rate). Marquette’s 3rd nationally ranked defensive turnover rate has been their saving grace so far this season, as they struggle in other areas that the Cyclones can exploit. The defensive glass and guarding inside the arc have been a problem against lesser competition, and an elite team like Iowa State should have success here if they take care of the ball like normal. 

Iowa State can also force the ball out of Kam Jones’ hands in this matchup, as their extremely heavy help defense will keep the crafty interior finisher out of the lane. The Cyclones will force guards Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross to beat them, and while they have been good so far, it will be a much taller task for them to contribute significant offense in a road environment like Hilton Coliseum. Iowa State is an elite turnover forcing team of their own, so if they can cut into Marquette’s positive turnover margin in any capacity it gives them a massive advantage.

Despite Shaka Smart having a great track record as an underdog, I will be fading him due to this number being too short. I would personally have this number closer to -7.5 or even -8, as the Cyclones haven’t received the respect they deserve in the market. Expect Iowa State to get the job done for the Big 12, as the conference has their work cut out for them in the Big East-Big 12 battle.

Best Bet: Iowa State -5.5