Best Bets 12/3

Kentucky Wildcats at Clemson Tigers (+2)

Littlejohn Coliseum, Clemson, SC

9:30 pm EST on ESPN

The Kentucky Wildcats will play their first true road game of the season when they visit the Clemson Tigers in what is part of the SEC-ACC Challenge. It has been a quick ascension to the top for the Wildcats, as they now sit at #4 in the latest AP Poll. Defeating their buy game “competition” by an average of 32.5 points per game along with their win over Duke in the Champions Classic has put the country on notice, and they hope to do that again tonight at Littlejohn. As for Clemson, they are flying under the radar a bit. The Tigers sit at 7-1 on the season with their only blemish coming against Mountain West favorite Boise State, but Clemson has solid neutral site victories over San Francisco and Penn State.

This handicap is pretty simple for me, as Kentucky comes into this game significantly overvalued. They have looked fantastic to start the year, but Mark Pope teams have always obliterated buy game opponents, and it has been much easier for him to do that this season with all of the scoring depth on this roster. The NET rankings value defeating teams by margin, and when the end of your bench consists of 4-star Freshmen Collin Chandler, Travis Perry, and Trent Noah, it is much easier to continue to dominate inferior teams late in games. Even veterans like Kerr Kriisa and Ansley Almonor are getting significant garbage time minutes. This factor is also boosting their analytical profile, and this could be the spot to take advantage of that.

Kentucky has also been fortunate when it comes to defending the 3-point line. While they do a solid job of limiting catch and shoot opportunities, teams are shooting just 25% from beyond the arc against them this season. This is not a sustainable number and the Clemson Tigers will most likely be the best shooting team they have played thus far, so there may be no better time for the regression monster to find them than tonight on the road. 

Clemson matches up with this Kentucky team fairly well. Firstly, they will attempt to keep the transition heavy Wildcats in the halfcourt. Clemson is in the 1st percentile in transition opportunities allowed, so expect them to have success in that area tonight. The Tigers will need to secure the ball and score efficiently on offense to control the pace, but there are avenues to make this happen. Kentucky is not an aggressive defense, so live ball turnovers shouldn’t happen too frequently for Clemson, but it’s the post up game of Ian Schieffelin and Viktor Lahkin that might be able to give the Wildcats issues. Kentucky will not double the post, as they like the cut off perimeter opportunities, but they have been average at best when it comes to defending post up actions (48th percentile guarding post ups, per Synergy). If Clemson has enough success on the interior early on, it may change the way Kentucky defends for the rest of the contest, and it will be tough to make adjustments on the fly in a road environment. Add in Kentucky’s overvalued defense in general, and we have ourselves a great matchup for the Tigers. 

This is one of the top buy low/sell high spots of the season thus far, and we should take advantage of fading the Wildcats while we can. This was a Kentucky team I was high on entering the year, but the love for them has gone a bit too far. I expect yet another top 5 team to go down tonight, but we can take the points with the Clemson Tigers just to be safe.

Best Bet: Clemson +2, play to -1.5 or -120 ML

Georgia Tech at Oklahoma (-12)

Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, OK

9:00 pm EST on ESPNU

Another SEC-ACC Challenge game will be a part of the best bets segment, as the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will visit Norman to take on the Oklahoma Sooners. These teams have experienced different starts to their respective seasons, as Georgia Tech enters this game with a record of 4-3, while Oklahoma is a perfect 7-0 and coming off 3 straight wins at the Battle 4 Atlantis. 

Oklahoma is riding high off their MTE championship in the Bahamas, and that is a big part of this handicap. The Sooners took down the likes of Providence, Arizona, and Louisville by a total of 12 points, so there could be an emotional let down against a Georgia Tech team that is hungry for a big win. Oklahoma is another 3-point regression candidate on the defensive end, as opposing teams have made just 26.5% of their shots from beyond the arc on the young season. The Sooners aren’t necessarily shutting down the perimeter either, as they have allowed 45% of opposing field goal attempts to come from 3-point land which is good for 52nd in the nation. Georgia Tech has the guard play and shooting to potentially expose the Sooners perimeter defense, as Naithan George and former Oklahoma guard Javian McCollum will be ready for the task. 

This is mostly a letdown/sell high spot on Oklahoma, but Georgia Tech will be extremely motivated to steal a win in Norman. This is a Yellow Jackets squad that I was fairly high on entering the year, and they have the personnel to score with almost anyone. They will take care of the ball against a Sooners defense that has been reliant on forcing turnovers so far, and they won’t be physically intimidated by their opposition in the frontcourt. They may not be able to walk out of Norman with a win, but expect Georgia Tech to hang around with an Oklahoma team that might be sleep walking early in this contest. 

Best Bet: Georgia Tech +12, play to +10