Best Bets 12/18

Oklahoma vs Michigan (-3.5)

Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

9:00 pm EST on ESPN2

A top 25 matchup will take place in the second and final game of the Jumpman Invitational, as the #14 ranked Oklahoma Sooners will battle with the #24 ranked Michigan Wolverines. It is safe to say both teams have far exceeded expectations in the early portion of this season. The Sooners are undefeated with wins over Providence, Arizona, and Louisville, while the Wolverines sit at 8-2 with wins over Xavier, Wisconsin, and Iowa. If this game is anything like the first game at this event between Florida and North Carolina, we will be in for a fun contest. However, it is the Wolverines we will be making a case for tonight.

While Oklahoma has had a great start to their 2024-25 campaign, there are some holes to poke in their resume. Firstly, all 3 of their wins en route to their Battle 4 Atlantis championship have aged poorly, as Providence, Arizona, and Louisville already have 5 losses a piece. Outside of those games, their best wins came over Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State, 2 teams that seem to be near the cellar of their respective conferences. This contest looks to be a major step up in class against a Michigan team that has solid wins over proven teams. 

The Sooners are also due to regress on the defensive end at some point, and there is no better time for this to happen than against a powerful Wolverines offense. People will point to Oklahoma’s 3-point defense and say they are due for regression there (28.6% allowed from 3), but that is actually the area of Porter Moser’s defense that is sustainable. Moser led defenses are elite when it comes to guarding the perimeter, as almost every catch and shoot opportunity they allow is contested. 72% of opponents catch and shoot opportunities have been contested this season, which is in the 99th percentile, per Synergy. The area of concern comes on the interior for the Sooners, as they are currently 203rd nationally in 2-point field goal percentage against, and they are 251st in defensive rebound percentage. Bottom feeders like Northwestern State, Stetson, and Texas A&M Commerce combined to shoot 58% inside the arc against this Sooners defense, which brings major red flags for me. Michigan is 6th nationally in 2-point field goal percentage and 31st in offensive rebound percentage, so look for this mismatch to potentially get exposed tonight. 

Michigan can be a real matchup problem with their versatility, and a lot of this is due to Yale transfer Danny Wolf. He can play inside and back down smaller defenders, while also being able to bring slower footed defenders to the perimeter to beat them off the bounce, which can completely break down a defense. Wolf has been utilized as the pick and roll ball handler frequently this season, and it is extremely rare to see a big man operating in this situation and it is equally difficult to guard for opposing bigs. Oklahoma’s defense could have to play a completely different style tonight due to not having a real candidate to slow down Wolf in 1-on-1 situations. The Sooners having to send doubles on him can be bad news for them, as Wolf is a great passer and will most likely find the open shooter to create great looks from 3. Michigan’s other pieces in Tre Donaldson, Roddy Gayle, and Nimari Burnett are more than capable shooters that will be ready to capitalize on these chances. The one area of concern for the Wolverines could be in the turnover department, as they are currently 334th nationally in this statistic. However, it is an area they are improving, as 2 early season performances have skewed these numbers a bit. 

Michigan would be viewed much differently if they were able to hold their lead against Arkansas, but it was a hot shooting performance that got the Razorbacks back into that game. I expect the Wolverines to be angry and focused off that game, and they have had over a week to prepare for this game, as opposed to Oklahoma who is coming off a rivalry game against Oklahoma State on Saturday. Back the Wolverines to get the job done in Charlotte.

Best Bet: Michigan -3.5 

VCU at New Mexico (-2.5)

The Pit, Albuquerque, NM

9:00 pm EST on Mountain West Network

The VCU Rams from the A-10 will visit Albuquerque to take on Mountain West contender New Mexico Lobos on Tuesday night. These 2 teams are considered to be up there with the top mid majors in the country, and it should be an exciting test for both sides. VCU has had a fine start to the season, as they are sitting at 9-2 with wins over Miami and Colorado State but fell to Seton Hall and Nevada. As for New Mexico, it has been an interesting start to the year. The Lobos were looking like the clear frontrunner in the Mountain West after a convincing win over UCLA, but recent performances against San Jose State (won by 6) and arch rival New Mexico State (lost in OT) have inspired little confidence. Despite these 2 recent performances from New Mexico, we will be making a case for the Lobos to cover behind their elite home court advantage.

It is never easy to go into The Pit and walk out with a win, and it is especially more difficult when it is your first true road game of the season. This the case for the Rams, as it took until their 12th game of the year to be in this situation. That is a huge part of this handicap, as many teams across the country have struggled in their first road tests this year. The Lobos will also be extra motivated for this game coming off a home loss to New Mexico State, where they lost in OT as 19.5 point favorites.

The Lobos have a few matchup advantages to note in this game, and it starts with the turnover battle. New Mexico takes care of the ball at a high level with their trio of Donovan Dent, Tru Washington, and CJ Noland, and while VCU can be considered an elite turnover forcing defense (10th nationally in TO rate), they have taken advantage of bad ball handling teams to enhance those numbers. These Lobos guards can also bother the opposition on the defensive side with their lateral quickness, and that will be key in forcing turnovers of their own against a worse ball handling Rams duo in Max Shulga and Joe Bamisile (212th in offensive TO rate). The Lobos look to have an advantage on the glass as well. The hyperactive Lobos can attack the glass against a Rams team that is outside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive rebound rate. 

Lastly, the Lobos are due for some positive 3-point shooting regression. They have allowed teams to shoot 46% from 3-point range in their last 5 games, which is an outlier number in itself. Add in the fact that 62% of their catch and shoot opportunities allowed this season have been guarded (73rd percentile, Synergy), and it shows that they are due for some teams to miss some shots. The Rams take a high volume of 3’s, but they are making just 32.5% of those attempts, so this could be a good spot for the Lobos luck to finally go in their favor.

While I believe VCU is the better overall team and expect them to have more success long term, the spot heavily favors New Mexico. Coming off a home loss in a rivalry game and are now getting a chance at a resume boosting win against a Rams team playing in their first true road game of the season? Sign me up. Back Donovan Dent and company to get right tonight.

Best Bet: New Mexico -2.5