Best Bets 12/10

Arkansas vs Michigan (-4.5)

Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

9:00 pm EST on ESPN

In the late game of the Jimmy V Classic, the Arkansas Razorbacks will matchup with the Michigan Wolverines at Madison Square Garden. Arkansas hasn’t seemed to hit their stride just yet, as they only have 1 win against a power conference team this season and come into this game with a 7-2 record. As for Michigan, consider them ahead of schedule in the Dusty May rebuild, because they are ranked 14th in the country in the latest AP Poll. The Wolverines are 8-1 with recent wins over Xavier, Wisconsin, and Iowa. This should be a fun game between 2 very talented teams, but it’s the underdog we will be making a case for.

The Razorbacks haven’t put together the most inspiring performances, but this is a huge motivational spot for them to get a marquee that they are lacking at the moment. They lost their 2 biggest games of the season to Baylor and Illinois and have been waiting for another opportunity to win a big one. Arkansas is the more talented team in the matchup, and we should prefer getting them in the underdog role when we can. Motivated talent typically plays up in these situations.

Arkansas’ offense has been the biggest disappointment this year, as they rank 75th in adjusted offense, per KenPom. Despite this, there may actually be a few avenues to success. The Razorbacks don’t take the most efficient shots, as Calipari’s team will settle in the mid range or take a lot of floaters, but they will get clean looks from these areas against a Michigan team that filters opponents there. Michigan plays drop coverage almost exclusively, but this type of coverage could struggle to perform against talented guards like Boogie Fland, DJ Wagner, and Johnell Davis. There is also a path to success on the offensive glass, as Michigan is 277th nationally in defensive rebound rate. 

This Arkansas frontcourt also has the size and versatility to handle the combination of Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, which is something no other opponent of Michigan could say. The 4 man frontcourt combo of Ivisic, Aidoo, Brazile, and Thiero will give coach Calipari plenty of options to deal with the engine of Michigan’s offense, and will also be able to keep the Wolverines off the glass (9th nationally in defensive rebound rate).

While both teams will be motivated for this game, it feels like Arkansas is desperate for a marquee win while Michigan is coming off 2 highly emotional conference victories. Let’s trust the talent of Arkansas to play up in a big spot and take the 4.5 points.

Best Bet: Arkansas +4.5, play to +3.5

Rhode Island at Brown (+4.5)

Pizzitola Sports Center, Providence, RI

7:00 pm EST on ESPN+

An in-state rivalry will take place in Providence, as the Rhode Island Rams will visit the Brown Bears. Rhode Island has been one of the most surprising teams in the country, and they are only 1 of 8 undefeated teams left in Division 1. The Rams haven’t played a gauntlet of a schedule, but wins over Providence, Yale, and Charleston are nothing to scoff at. As for Brown, they have had an up and down start to the year. They opened the year with losses to Siena and Maine and also took a loss to Holy Cross (yikes!), but they have since righted the ship with 5 straight victories, including a couple of solid wins over Vermont and Bryant. Rhode Island is probably the better team here, but we will be playing the spot and taking Brown +4.5 at home.

This game provides a much similar situation to when Rhode Island hosted Providence on Saturday. The “little brother” in URI hosted the Friars in a hyped up spot and beat them 69-63 as 2 point underdogs, but now they will have to back that performance up by being the “big brother” going on the road. It will be Brown that is extremely motivated to take down an undefeated team, and this is a URI team that the Bears have beaten in each of the last 2 seasons. 

URI has also been extremely fortunate to be in the situation they are in. Firstly, they have won each of their last 4 games by 6 points or less which is an indicator that they aren’t controlling their competition. Single digit home wins over Detroit-Mercy and UT-Arlington aren’t very inspiring in my eyes. Secondly, the Rams are 4th in the nation in 3 point percentage defense at 25.4%, which is an unsustainable number. While people may say they are just playing great perimeter defense, they are in the 99th percentile in unguarded catch and shoot situations, and that is merely a luck statistic. 

This is mostly a fade of the high riding Rams, but Brown has an athletic defense to give them problems, led by Landon Lewis. He plays much bigger than his 6’7” frame and will be able to handle the interior presence of URI. Brown also has a sharpshooter in Kino Lilly Jr (47% from 3) that can flip a game on its head with one hot stretch from beyond the arc. Brown will be motivated to beat URI for a 3rd straight season, but even if they don’t, I like this game to stay inside the number with the slow pace the Bears will play tonight.

Best Bet: Brown +4.5 or +165 ML, play to +4