Best Bets 11/9

Tennessee at Louisville (PK)

KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY

12:00 pm EST on ACCN

Rick Barnes and the Tennessee Volunteers will visit the upstart Louisville Cardinals on Saturday afternoon. Louisville is now led by Pat Kelsey (Charleston), who was one of the most sought after mid major assets in this year's coaching carousel. The Cardinals started off the Kelsey era on fire by beating up on Morehead State, winning that contest 93-45. As for the Volunteers, coach Barnes should be rolling out a top tier defense once again, led by perimeter pests Zakai Ziegler and Jamai Mashack. The Vols had a more difficult time on opening night, facing a feisty Gardner-Webb program that took awhile to break away from, but they ultimately walked away with a 16 point win on Monday. 

Louisville has a plethora of options on the offensive end, and they share the ball extremely well for a team that just started playing together (21 AST on 32 FGM in game 1). It’s the Pat Kelsey way to play extremely fast and bomb away from 3, and he has 7 players that shot 32% or better from 3 on high volume last season. Guys like Kasean Pryor and Noah Waterman in the frontcourt will be tough covers for anyone, and it will be key to space out Tennessee center Felix Okpara. While it is never easy to score on this elite Volunteers defense, spacing out their rim protectors gives you a better chance than anyone else. 

The Cardinals are no slouch on the defensive end either, as I am fairly high on some of their point of attack defenders. Chucky Hepburn, Aboubacar Traore, and J’Vonne Hadley are all solid in this aspect of the game, and this is a roster that is defensively versatile as a whole. Kelsey trusting his point of attack defenders will allow the Cardinals to not have to help off the Volunteer shooters and force their suspect on-ball creation to make plays off the dribble. The Volunteers frontcourt looks to be a bit worse on the offensive glass as well, which would be the area to exploit when Louisville plays small, but it doesn’t appear that they will dominate in this area.

This handicap is more of a number play for me, as I am higher than the markets on this Louisville team, while I am a bit lower on Tennessee. The KFC Yum! Center should be rocking as well with this being their biggest game in the last few seasons. Back the Cardinals to defend their home court.

Best Bet: Louisville PK, play to -1.5 or -120 ML

Auburn vs Houston (-4.5)

Toyota Center, Houston, TX

9:30 pm EST on ESPNU

The game of the night on Saturday will feature the Auburn Tigers and the Houston Cougars, who are facing off in the Toyota Center in Houston. While it is not a true home game for the Cougars, it will sure feel like it with the crowd heavily favoring them. Both of these teams are coming off impressive blowout victories, winning by 50+ points a piece. Auburn’s effort was especially impressive, as they dominated one of the top mid-major teams in the country in the Vermont Catamounts, who were a top 100 team, per KenPom’s rankings. We may look back at this early season matchup come March and say that it was one of the best games of the season, so without further ado, let’s dive into this top 15 matchup.

These teams have a lot of similarities, but the one that jumps off the page is the athleticism both sides have. The athleticism along with the intensity each team plays with on the defensive end make them 2 of the top units in the country. Auburn’s frontcourt combo of Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell will be matched up with Houston’s frontcourt of J’Wan Roberts and Ja’vier Francis and it will be one of the most evenly matched battles of the season. These frontcourt units will match each other rebound for rebound, and it will be very intriguing to see who comes out on top in that area. The wing groups are also very similar and should give each other an extremely tough time when it comes to scoring the ball. 

Even with all of the similarities these teams have, and it may seem like an evenly matched game on the surface, the Houston Cougars have 2 major advantages in this game. Firstly, Houston’s positive turnover margin will be key, as they are perennially one of the top teams when it comes to this area. This is potentially a weak spot for Auburn, as their combination of JP Pegues and Denver Jones aren’t necessarily true point guards or great ball handlers for that matter. Secondly, Houston is elite at defending in transition, as they allowed transition opportunities in just the 7th percentile last season and were the best in the country at defending these play types (Synergy). This is key, as Auburn loves to get easy baskets in transition when they force turnovers, but those opportunities should be few and far between against an elite team like Houston. 

These 2 matchup advantages are huge when determining who will come out on top in this battle of elite teams, and Houston being backed by a favorable crowd should push this team over the top to walk away with a victory. Let’s back the Cougars minus the points.

Best Bet: Houston -4.5, play to -5.5

Another bet to consider is the Kentucky Wildcats -22.5 at home vs Bucknell. Mark Pope has plenty of depth at his disposal, so even if this game gets out of hand early, the Wildcat bench should be able to pour it on Bucknell. Pope also loves to play at a fast pace and shoot plenty of 3’s, which increases their chances of a blow out. Bucknell does like to play at a slower pace, but if they can’t generate enough offense, Kentucky will be able to play at whatever pace they want to.