Best Bets 11/8

George Mason at Marquette (-12)

Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

9:00 pm EST on Peacock

Shaka Smart and the Marquette Golden Eagles will face off with the George Mason Patriots on Friday night in Milwaukee. Both teams are coming off opening night victories, as Marquette blew out Stony Brook 102-62, but it took George Mason a bit longer to break away from NC Central before hitting their stride in the second half and won by 17. Coach Smart lost arguably his 2 most impactful players from last year to the NBA draft in Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro, so it will be interesting to see how they look against a formidable opponent. As for the Patriots, head coach Tony Skinn is in year 2 at the helm and is looking to build off of a positive first season.

The handicap on this game mostly comes down to how you believe Marquette will fare in the offensive creation aspect. While they passed the test on opening night, Stony Brook is a team undergoing a fairly significant rebuild and ranks 274th in KenPom, so we shouldn’t put too much stock into that effort. Senior Stevie Mitchell looks to be the guy taking over the point guard position, and while he was solid in their first game (9 pts, 6 ast, 4 stl), he is a major downgrade from the All-American they had playing the position last season. Lack of offensive talent is a theme throughout the entire roster outside of Kam Jones (who is fantastic), as guys like Chase Ross, David Joplin, and Ben Gold are not great at generating offense for themselves. George Mason will be able to help off Mitchell and Ross to stop Kam Jones from scoring on the interior, where the Patriots have plus length and athleticism in Woody Newton, Giovanni Emerjuru, and Jalen Haynes. The Patriots also brought in a high-motored guard in KD Johnson (Auburn), who may be able to hound Kam Jones on the perimeter for significant portions of this game (although he is foul prone). 

The defensive end for the Golden Eagles is also a concern. While they will win the turnover battle on most nights due to Smart’s hyper aggressive defensive scheme, the first shot defense along with rebounding are big concerns. Oso Ighodaro was everything Smart wanted in the frontcourt to execute his style, but Ben Gold is limited athletically and should be considered a significant downgrade. George Mason also has veteran guards that will be able to handle Marquette’s pressure to some degree. The Patriots also should have a major advantage on the glass, as Marquette is always weak in this area so we should see Emerjuru and Haynes feast with second chance opportunities.

This bet is mostly a fade of where the market has the Golden Eagles rated. There are some holes on their roster that may have not been exploited yet, and George Mason has the size and experience to stay in this contest. For what it’s worth, Shaka Smart is 19-30 ATS as a double digit non conference favorite, so that’s an extra feather in the Patriots’ cap. All of these factors along with George Mason’s slow style of play (344th adjusted tempo, per KenPom) lead us to believe that the Patriots are the right side of the spread in this matchup.

Best Bet: George Mason +12.5, play to +11

Northern Colorado at Colorado (-13)

CU Events Center, Boulder, CO

9:00 pm EST on ESPN+

An in-state battle between the Northern Colorado Bears and the Colorado Buffaloes will take place in Boulder on Friday Night. The Buffaloes came out of the gates slow on opening night, as they were trailing Eastern Washington 31-25 at halftime before dominating the second half and went on to win by 20. This will be the first D-1 contest of the year for the Bears.

This could be a very competitive game for a few reasons. Firstly, Colorado looks starving for perimeter talent. Coach Tad Boyle is feeling the loss of last year’s backcourt production of KJ Simpson and Cody Williams, as he decided to go with returning guards, Julian Hammond and Javon Ruffin. This backcourt pairing brings a great deal of concern, as they turned the ball over a ton a year ago despite their limited usage. This characteristic will only be magnified when taking more on ball usage, and this could give Colorado problems in the long term. There is also long term uncertainty with the entire rotation, as coach Boyle went the non D-1 route in the portal. Asking D-2 transfer Trevor Baskin and NAIA transfer Elijah Malone to take on much of the frontcourt load will most likely come with growing pains, so this is something to monitor. Freshman Sebastian Rancik was a bright spot for the Buffaloes on opening night (13 pts in 16 minutes), but it remains to be seen if the European can be consistently productive right away.

As for Northern Colorado, they won’t see former stars like Dalton Knecht and Saint Thomas walking through their door. But what they do have is a more seasoned point guard in Jaron Rillie. A 13 point underdog possibly having the edge at the guard spot is an important starting point when identifying who might have an edge in this contest. The frontcourt may also have success against a questionable Colorado front line, as Brock Wisne along with San Francisco transfer Isaiah Hawthorne creates a solid Big Sky duo.

One final point that may go unnoticed in this contest is the lack of home court advantage the Buffaloes may have. Colorado is known to have one of the best home court advantages in the country due to their elevation above sea level (5,430 feet), but the Bears will not be at a disadvantage here due to playing at elevation in their home arena as well. Let’s back the Bears here against a Buffaloes team that has major question marks on both sides of the floor.

Best Bet: Northern Colorado +13, play to +11.5

One final bet to consider is UCLA -4.5 vs New Mexico. UCLA should be able to slow the pace down and force a transition reliant Lobos offense to execute in the half court. The Bruins are also elite at preventing teams from scoring at the rim, so forcing New Mexico guards Donovan Dent and Tru Washington to become jump shooters will help UCLA significantly. For what it’s worth, New Mexico has struggled to play up against power conference opponents under Richard Pitino and also struggle when playing away from home. This number isn’t great, but the line is dropping from the opener of -6.5, so we will take a chance on the Bruins to get the job done in this neutral site battle.

Best Bet: UCLA -4.5, play to -5