Best Bets 11/6

Vermont at Auburn (-15.5)

Neville Arena, Auburn, AL

8:00 pm est on ESPN+ 

The Auburn Tigers will open their season on Wednesday night against one of the better mid majors in the country in the Vermont Catamounts. Vermont is coming off a big opening night victory over UAB, where they won 67-62 as a 6.5 point underdog, so they will look to add to their resume here in a hostile environment. As for the Tigers, coach Bruce Pearl is returning a decent amount of his production from a year ago, including Denver Jones, Chad Baker-Mazara, and All-American candidate Johni Broome.

The biggest factor in this game is the size and athleticism advantage Auburn has. The combo of Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell could give Vermont some real problems, as the front line for the Catamounts will be very undersized with Ileri Ayo-Faleye and Nick Fiorillo, who both stand at 6 '8". UAB gave Vermont problems on the glass Monday night (40% OREB allowed), and that should continue here with a better Auburn frontcourt. This factor may change how coach Becker operates his defense, as he is typically fine with his post defenders playing 1-on-1, but he may not have a choice when it comes to defending Johni Broome, and this could lead to this defense breaking down on the perimeter if they are forced to load up in the lane. 

The Auburn defense also has a big advantage in this game, as their length and athleticism on the wings should give Vermont a very tough time when it comes to executing their perimeter based offense. TJ Long and TJ Hurley will be asked to score on guys like Chad Baker-Mazara, Denver Jones, and Miles Kelly, so unless Becker finds ways to scheme them open, it could be a long night for them in Auburn. 

Vermont possibly has one thing working in their favor. Becker values possessions, which will be key when dealing with an aggressive perimeter defense like Auburn. His teams have ranked inside the top 15 nationally in offensive turnover rate in each of the last 3 seasons. Vermont also likes to play at a slower pace (350th tempo last season), and they value getting back in transition which is also key when playing a more transition heavy team in Auburn. However, these factors may not matter if the Catamounts can’t generate any sort of offense on the interior or keep the Tigers off the glass.

For what it’s worth, the Catamounts have really struggled when playing power conference teams, going just 2-6 ATS in these matchups over the last 3 seasons (Covers.com). The lack of athleticism is most likely the reason for that, but Vermont is still an elite mid major program nevertheless. Auburn looks to be one of those overwhelmingly athletic teams that can give Vermont issues, and this is why we will be backing the Tigers on Wednesday night. 

Best Bet: Auburn -15.5, play up to -16.5

Campbell at Virginia (-17.5)

John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA

7:00 pm est on ESPN+

The Virginia Cavaliers will open their season with a CAA foe in the Campbell Fighting Camels on Wednesday night. The Cavaliers will look much different, especially on the sidelines, as the program saw a legend leave when Tony Bennett announced his retirement just 2 weeks before the season began. The program will now be run by longtime assistant and former Charlotte head coach, Ron Sanchez, who will implement a similar style of play that Bennett had going. As for the Camels, they will enter year 12 of the Kevin McGeehan era, and they are still looking for their first NCAA tournament appearance under his leadership.

There is much uncertainty with how this Cavaliers squad will look without Bennett, especially on the defensive end. Bennett was highly regarded as one of the top defensive minded coaches in the country, making the pack line defense a popular trend for much of the 2010’s. Coach Sanchez will implement a similar style, but it will be a matter of this group of new faces being able to execute it right away, and it will be even more difficult to do with Florida State transfer and top wing perimeter defender, Jalen Warley, announcing his decision to enter the portal yet again and will sit out this entire season. This will be a big hit to a defense that already looked to be down entering the year after losing Reece Beekman and Ryan Dunn to the pros. 

The offense for the Cavaliers brings up questions as well, and that starts with the shooting ability. Virginia offenses are predicated off movement shooting, and it looks to be lacking this season outside of Isaac McKneely, who will see much more volume this season. We should see more ball screens under Sanchez, and they do have a higher upside guard in Kansas State transfer Dai Dai Ames, so this could be a path to offense for them. There is not any sort of dominant rim presence for Virginia, and that is key when playing an inferior opponent like Campbell. 

As you can see, there isn’t much talk about with the Fighting Camels, and that is mostly due to the fact that this is a pure fade of the Cavalier program that looks to be in disarray, but there are a few things to like about this squad. The first area to note is the pace, as the Camels like to play at a snail’s tempo just like the Cavaliers (250th tempo last season). This is important to the spread in a contest where we should see limited possessions, making it incredibly difficult for Virginia to break away with their lackluster offense. Campbell also has an experienced backcourt, as they are returning 3 guards that played over 20 minutes per game a season ago. 

Campbell isn’t a terrific team by any means, but they should be able to keep this game competitive against a Virginia team still trying to find their identity under coach Sanchez. Let’s back the Camels to possibly take the Cavaliers to the wire on opening night in Charlottesville.

Best Bet: Campbell +17.5, play down to +16

UC San Diego at San Diego State (-11)

Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA

10:00 pm est on Mountain West Network

An intra-city contest will take place as the UC San Diego Tritons will take on the San Diego State Aztecs at Viejas Arena on Wednesday. The Tritons are coming off a solid season, where they finished 21-12 with a 15-5 record in the Big West. While they retained much of their talent from last year, they will be without their star in Bryce Pope, who left for USC. The Aztecs are coming off their second straight Sweet 16 appearance and look to build off that again this season under the brilliant minded Brian Dutcher.

San Diego State is going to look much different this season, especially on the offensive side of the floor. Losing their All-American big man in Jaedon LeDee (21.4ppg, 8.4rpg) is the biggest reason, as everything ran through him a season ago. We should expect a fairly significant drop off in production from the frontcourt in his absence, along with the perimeter offense taking a hit when it was announced that Reese Waters would be out 6-8 weeks to start the year due to a broken foot. There is uncertainty about who is going to take over as the “alpha” for this group, and this factor could make them vulnerable on opening night against a UC San Diego squad that is no slouch.

Brian Dutcher is 9-14 ATS (39%) as a double digit non-conference favorite during his tenure at San Diego State. While his defenses are always rock solid, it’s the lacking offensive talent that should make it difficult for the Aztecs to break away from a Triton’s team that looks to make noise in the Big West once again. 

Best Bet: UC San Diego +11, play to +10