Thanksgiving Day Best Bets (11/28)

Louisville Cardinals vs West Virginia Mountaineers (+3)

Imperial Arena, Nassau, Bahamas

12:00pm EST on ESPN

After upset victories for both of these teams, the Louisville Cardinals and West Virginia Mountaineers will match up in the semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantis. Louisville decimated a talented Indiana squad, and West Virginia took down the #3 team in the country in the Gonzaga Bulldogs in overtime. These programs were considered to be in a rebuilding process entering the season, but they have far exceeded expectations thus far and this should be a fun contest.

West Virginia has a few advantages in this matchup, with the first one being their ability to control the tempo. The Mountaineers did a fantastic job of limiting Gonzaga’s transition opportunities on Wednesday, and if they can slow down the most high powered offense in the country, then they surely can do the same thing to this Louisville squad. It looks to be coach Darian DeVries’ gameplan entering the tournament, and he has high level offensive creators to make big plays in a half court setting in Javon Small and his son, Tucker DeVries.

Another edge the Mountaineers have in this contest is preventing the Cardinals from taking a high volume of 3-pointers. Coach DeVries values limiting attempts from beyond the arc along with preventing catch and shoot opportunities, and he has the personnel on the perimeter to execute his gameplan. Javon Small, Sencire Harris, and Toby Okani are well above average on ball defenders, and the big man duo of Amani Hansberry and Eduardo Andre will be able to hold their own when guarding Louisville’s stretch bigs. Their point of attack defenders should give Louisville a tough time executing its offense that lives off versatility.

This number opened at West Virginia -2.5 and has since flipped to them being 3 point underdogs. This seems to be too much of a line move, and I am willing to go against the market here. Finding edges within the matchup is critical in these non-conference neutral court games, and this looks to be a solid one for West Virginia on Thanksgiving Day. 

Best Bet: West Virginia +3, playable to +1.5

Butler Bulldogs vs Northwestern Wildcats (-2)

Mullett Arena, Tempe, AZ

7:00pm EST on CBSSN

The Butler Bulldogs will face off with the Northwestern Wildcats in the Arizona Tip-Off on Thursday night. Each of these teams have had interesting starts to their season, as they have struggled to fend off their buy game competition. Northwestern narrowly escaped UIC, Montana State, and Eastern Illinois in consecutive games, while Butler actually lost an early buy game to Austin Peay. It could be these teams' slow style of play, along with a lack of a physicality/talent edge that keeps these mid-majors in games, but there is one particular side that I believe has more problems than the other.

Northwestern’s only actual blemish is losing to Dayton on the road, but that loss doesn’t look necessarily bad after the Flyers’ performances in Maui this week. The Wildcats have also dealt with injuries, as they were missing arguably their best player in Brooks Barnhizer for the first 4 games of the season. The Wildcats have plenty of offensive weapons, led by Nick Martinelli who has been phenomenal to start the 2024-25 campaign. The crafty left-hander is averaging 23.8 points per game along with 6.8 rebounds per game and was everything the Wildcats needed while Barnhizer was on the shelf. This team has a large group of underrated scorers, as guards Ty Berry and Jalen Leach add the 3-point shooting ability to allow Martinelli and Barnhizer to operate inside the arc, where they are far more comfortable. The multitude of scorers that coach Chris Collins has should give Butler a tough time guarding in space, which is a major issue for the slow footed perimeter of the Bulldogs.

Butler’s early season issues may have stemmed from their lack of continuity, but they also have a few underlying problems that Northwestern can expose. The perimeter defense is certainly one problem, but their lack of ball security is bad news against a Northwestern team that has active hands on the perimeter. Butler is 292nd in turnover rate on the young season, and they haven’t necessarily played against elite turnover forcing defenses yet. They also can’t force turnovers of their own, ranking 339th in defensive TO rate, giving the Wildcats a major edge in this aspect. Butler is also due for some major 3-point regression on both sides of the floor. They have a few above average shooters, but their 12th nationally ranked percentage from beyond the arc is not sustainable due to their lack of overall shooting talent. Opposing teams also can’t buy a 3 against them, shooting just 24.3% through 5 games, but there is no better time for the Bulldogs to experience negative regression than in their first game away from home this year.

Both teams have had head scratching performances, but I am more willing to give Northwestern a pass due to their injury troubles and their slower style of play. The Bulldogs have a lack of continuity along with ball security issues and that could come back to bite them away from home. Let’s back the underrated Wildcats to win by more than a possession in Tempe. 

Best Bet: Northwestern -2, playable to -3