Best Bets 11/26
Penn State vs Clemson (-1.5)
Ocean Center, Daytona Beach, FL
4:00pm EST on CBSSN
The Penn State Nittany Lions will take on the Clemson Tigers in the Sunshine Slam championship on Tuesday afternoon. Both teams are coming off convincing victories, as Penn State handled Fordham 85-66 while Clemson went on a huge second half run to break away from WCC darkhorse San Francisco and won by a score of 70-55. There is a particular team that is more battle tested entering this contest, and this factor is creating some value on the number.
Penn State has had a cakewalk of a schedule thus far, with their toughest game coming against Virginia Tech who looks like a bottom of the barrel ACC team (won 85-66). The Nittany Lions have been able to take advantage of much lesser competition with their hyper aggressive ball pressure and transition based offense, forcing turnovers at the 13th best rate and playing at the 19th fastest tempo nationally. This may not be an avenue to success against a Clemson team that has solid guard play, led by Chase Hunter and Jaedon Zackery. The Tigers also prevent transition at an elite clip, limiting what the Nittany Lions can do in that area (1st percentile in transition opportunities allowed, per Synergy).
Clemson should have a significant rebounding advantage in this contest, led by Ian Schieffelin and Viktor Lahkin. Penn State ranks 134th nationally in defensive rebound rate, and they haven’t necessarily been tested in that area, so the Tigers should be able to expose them even moreso. Clemson’s “shell” defense can also give Penn State issues. They get back in transition and protect the paint at all costs, and while Penn State’s Ace Baldwin and Zach Hicks have shot the ball well this season, their career percentages are much worse than their early season numbers, so expect negative regression in that area.
This is one of the best buy low/sell high spots I have seen in this young season, and we should take advantage. This line opened at Penn State -1.5 but has since flipped to Clemson being favored. This is a sign of early sharp action on the side of Clemson, and I expect this line to climb even further before tip-off. Don’t worry though, as this is a line I would play up to -4, so there is plenty of value to be had on the Tigers as a short favorite.
Best Bet: Clemson -1.5, play to -4
Rutgers vs Notre Dame (+2.5)
MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV
10:30 EST on TBS
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights will take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Tuesday night in Las Vegas. Both teams are coming off ugly losses, with Rutgers losing on the road against Kennesaw State as 14 point favorites and Notre Dame being stunned at home against Elon as 15 point favorites. Both teams will look to right the ship here, and there is value to be had on a particular side.
Although each of these teams are working through problems of their own, it looks like the Scarlet Knights are having a more difficult time to begin the season. This Steve Pikiell led defense has taken a bit of a dip so far this year, and that is a big concern for a program that typically leans on that side of the ball. Rutgers has finished top 10 in KenPom’s defensive ratings the last 2 seasons, but they currently sit at 72nd this season. The offensive side looks improved with the added talent, led by a pair of 5-star Freshmen in Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey. While there is optimism for Pikiell’s squad on this side of the floor, they haven’t completely figured things out and the Scarlet Knights are extremely reliant on their transition game (93rd percentile in transition frequency, per Synergy). They will not have an easy time speeding this game up, as the Fighting Irish allow transition in just the 2nd percentile in the nation.
Notre Dame has the continuity edge in this contest, and I am willing to give them a pass for their loss against Elon. The Irish will keep lesser teams in games due to their slow pace (293rd tempo, per KenPom), but it also allows them to compete with almost anyone in the country. Their ability to operate in the halfcourt and the fact that coach Micah Shrewsberry has a great track record as an underdog throughout his career leads to the side of Notre Dame +2.5.
Best Bet: Notre Dame +2.5, play to PK