Best Bets 11/25
Memphis vs UConn (-9)
Lahaina Civic Center, Maui, HI
2:30pm EST on ESPN2
The Memphis Tigers and Connecticut Huskies will be the opening game of everyone’s favorite MTE, the Maui Invitational. This event always provides us with some of the best moments of the college basketball season, and this year should be no different with the stacked field we have. These 2 teams come into the tournament with no blemishes, both sitting at 4-0. Memphis has definitely had the more impressive start to the season, as all 4 teams they beat are in KenPom’s top 200, including 2 road wins against top 100 teams, UNLV and San Francisco. UConn can’t say the same about their strength of schedule, as they have yet to play a team inside of KenPom’s top 300. This will be a major step up in class for the Huskies, and this factor may ultimately be the reason why the Tigers can hang around.
This play is mostly because of the number, as the UConn Huskies look to be overvalued at this point and time. This large spread has a lot to do with their pedigree, and while this program deserves all the credit in the world for the dominant run they are on, this is a much different roster that has some issues to work out. It starts with the guard play that appears to be a downgrade from last year's team that had Tristan Newton and Cam Spencer, who have since left for the NBA. The trio of Solomon Ball, Aidan Mahaney, and Hassan Diarra are taking over the ball handling duties, but they’ve shown some weaknesses early on this season. While Ball has looked solid as more of a scoring guard, it’s Diarra and Mahaney that have struggled through 4 games. Diarra is averaging almost 3 turnovers per game in less than 20 minutes of action, and Mahaney hasn’t found his shot quite yet, shooting just 30% from the floor. Having issues at the guard spot is bad news against a Memphis guard group that can harass their opponents and force turnovers to get into their transition game.
This will also be the UConn frontcourt’s first test of the season. Dan Hurley and company may feel the loss of last year’s elite paint protector, Donovan Clingan. Samson Johnson and Michigan transfer Tarris Reed will have to fill the void by committee, and while they are a solid big man pairing, it is certainly a major downgrade on both sides of the floor.
Memphis is a team you want to back in the underdog role. Hardaway’s Tigers are always a tough out due to their elite talent level and this season is no different. The perimeter trio of PJ Haggerty, Tyrese Hunter, and Colby Rogers can score with anyone, and they certainly have more offensive firepower in this matchup. Haggerty has been especially great early on this season, averaging 22.5 points per game and is shooting nearly 50% from the field. Memphis can also stick with UConn on the front line with their trio of Dain Daija, Moussa Cisse, and Nick Jourdain. There looks to be more talent across the board for the Tigers, and they have proven more than the Huskies in the early going.
Betting against UConn isn’t necessarily fun, but this number is giving the new look Huskies too much credit. Dan Hurley along with his incredible assistants have been at the top of the college basketball world for 2 years now, but this roster just isn’t at the same level as the 2 championship teams, and they will especially feel the loss of Donovan Clingan in this particular matchup. I am personally not even a fan of this Memphis team in the long term, but they play up to competition and look to have the pure talent edge in this contest. Give me the Tigers to keep this game close or possibly pull off a stunner in the Maui Invitational opener.
Best Bet: Memphis +9 (-110), play to +7.5. ML is worth a look at +300 or better
Colorado vs Michigan State (-8) O/U: 145.5
Lahaina Civic Center, Maui, HI
5:00pm EST on ESPN2
The Michigan State Spartans will take on the Colorado Buffaloes in game #2 of the Maui Invitational. Both teams come into this tournament fairly unscathed, with the only loss between the 2 teams was when the Spartans fell to the #1 team in the country, the Kansas Jayhawks. This is always the most fun early season tournament of the season, and there may be some value on the total in this matchup. We will look at the going over the point total of 145.5.
As most totals handicapping goes, the pace is very important in this matchup. Tom Izzo’s Spartans have looked to slow down the pace the last few seasons, ranking outside the top 300 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo. This season looks to be a bit different, as Izzo has younger guards at his disposal who thrive in the transition game and every game Michigan State has played thus far has gone over 70 possessions a piece. The Spartans rank in the 90th percentile in transition frequency and will be going against a team that defends it in just the 23rd percentile (Synergy). Michigan State may be able to create even more transition opportunities than normal in this game by forcing turnovers against this suspect Colorado backcourt, who has had a tough time taking care of the ball early this season against worse competition (344th nationally in TO rate). The Spartans are also due for some positive 3-point regression on the offensive end, as guys like Jaden Akins, Frankie Fidler, and Tre Holloman are all shooting well below expectation this season. There is no better place for positive shooting regression than on the soft Lahaina Civic Center rims.
When the Buffaloes are able to take care of the ball, there is some efficiency to be had through the post up game. Coach Tad Boyle will work through his big man duo of Elijah Malone and Trevor Baskin, who should have success against a Spartan defense that is 25th percentile in defending post up actions. Izzo typically refuses to double in the post, so expect the Colorado bigs to have a great day on the interior.
Totals are typically inflated by 7-8 points due to the soft Maui rims, but the pace in this game being quicker than most projections say is a big key in finding value here. Add in the 3-point regression due for Michigan State and the post up efficiency of Colorado, then we have a bet on the over.
Best Bet: Over 145.5