Best Bets 11/21

You can find our 2 best bets here on the website nearly every day, but to find our other plays make sure to join our discord so you don’t miss out. The link is located in our Instagram bio (@mainelyhoops).

Baylor vs St. John’s (+1.5)

Baha Mar Convention Center, Nassau, Bahamas

7:00 pm EST on CBSSN

The Baylor Bears will face off with the St. John’s Red Storm in the opening game of the Bahamas championship. The winner of this matchup will play the winner of Tennessee and Virginia in this mini 4 team tournament. Baylor has gotten back on track since their opening night blowout loss to Gonzaga, winning 3 straight contests including an impressive 72-67 win over Arkansas. For the Johnnie’s, they have played up to the hype thus far, as they have a perfect 4-0 record including a comfortable win over the New Mexico Lobos. This should be a fun matchup between 2 talented teams, but there is an edge to be had on one side.

After Baylor’s embarrassing loss to Gonzaga where they gave up 101 points, coach Scott Drew decided that a change was needed on the defensive end right away. The adjustment he made vs Arkansas was switching to his 1-1-3 zone that he made famous during the early 2010’s. This gave a below average shooting team in Arkansas some real problems, and it could give St. John’s similar issues. Drew also made it a point to slow the pace down and prevent transition opportunities, an area in which the Red Storm thrive as well. Forcing St. John’s to become a jump shot reliant team should do wonders for a Baylor team that hasn’t been great when playing man to man. 

Baylor also has avenues to success on the offensive end, and that’s starting with the offensive glass. They are 15th in the nation in offensive rebound rate, led by Norchad Omier, and they can exploit the one true weakness the Johnnie’s have defensively (166th in defensive rebound rate). The Bears should also have success in the pick and roll game with their plethora of guard options, and St. John’s has been poor defending these actions to start the season (19th percentile vs pick and roll handler, per Synergy). 

These factors along with the Bears being tested away from home should give them the edge over a Red Storm team that hasn’t left the friendly confines of New York this season. Unless St. John’s has an outlier shooting day, Baylor’s defense matches up well when playing their zone, and they have more scoring talent. Back the Bears in the Bahamas on Thursday night.

Best Bet: Baylor -1.5, play to -3

Seton Hall vs VCU (-6.5)

TD Arena, Charleston, SC

5:00 pm EST on ESPN2

The Seton Hall Pirates will meet the VCU Rams in the first round of the Charleston Classic. These 2 teams have had polar opposite starts to their season, as Seton Hall has already gone down twice in their first 4 games, losing by 1 to both Fordham and Hofstra. The Rams have cruised to 4 straight 15+ point victories to start the year, including a dominant performance over Boston College (80-55). VCU looks like the A-10 favorite while Seton Hall looks like they may be towards the bottom of a weak Big East conference, but despite this, we will hold our nose and make a case for the Pirates to keep it close.

This is one of the uglier wagers we have made in the best bets segment so far this season, but there are some factors that may be in favor of Seton Hall. I will not be making a case for the porous offense we have seen from them (263rd in KePom), but there are avenues for them to score on the offensive glass against a more brittle VCU frontline that doesn’t have much depth.

The Pirates defense is a different story and can be viewed as elite. Seton Hall is loaded with defensive talent on the wings with guys like Dylan Addae-Wusu, Chaunce Jenkins, Garwey Dual, and Isaiah Coleman. The length on the wing along with their turnover forcing ability will go a long way when playing a perimeter oriented VCU offense that struggles to take care of the ball (267th in turnover rate). Pace is also a big factor here, as the Pirates are currently playing at the 358th adjusted pace in the nation, per KenPom. 

VCU is obviously the better team here and deserves to be favored in this matchup, but Shaheen Holloway coached teams perform extremely well when playing the underdog role. Holloway is 23-12 ATS (66%) when his team is an underdog of 5.5 or more, and that is exactly what we have here. This is a tough bet to make, but we are most likely in a buy low/sell high spot as well, as I don’t see these teams trending in their respective directions too much more than they are now (VCU 35th in KenPom, Seton Hall 97th).

Best Bet: Seton Hall +6.5, wouldn’t play past this number.