Best Bets 11/17
Utah vs Mississippi State (-5)
Landers Center, Southhaven, MS
4:00 pm EST on ESPN2
The Utah Utes will face off against the Mississippi State Bulldogs in what will be both team’s first real test of the young season. They both breezed through 3 buy game victories, but none of the 6 opponents total ranked in the top 200 of KenPom, so this will be a major step up in class. We can consider this a semi-home game for the Bulldogs, as it will be played in their home state, and this factor may ultimately push them past the Utes.
This handicap is partially a fade of Utah, as their analytical profile looks much better after their 3 consecutive buy games. While blowing out teams obviously isn’t a bad thing and shouldn’t give people a false perception of who a team really is, playing in the altitude in Salt Lake City is not an easy task. This team is also sort of built to smash inferior opponents with their well above average size at every position. We see this Utah team win massive games at home year in and year out, but it has been a different story when they are taken away from Salt Lake. The Utes are just 16-30 ATS (35%) away from home in the Craig Smith era, further showing how good their home court makes them look.
This Utes roster is made up of a lot of new pieces and as good as they’ve looked, they are only returning 1 starter from last season (Gabe Madsen), which most likely creates some bumps in the road when stepping up in class. 61% of Utah’s field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc (1st nationally), and while they are knocking down 44% of those looks, it will be tough to replicate on the road against better competition.
As for the Bulldogs, coach Jans looks to have a more balanced attack this season. He may have sacrificed a little from the defense that has made his teams so great, but adding the offensive firepower of Claudell Harris, Kanye Clary, and Riley Kugel to go along with Sophomore guard Josh Hubbard has raised this team’s ceiling tremendously. These quicker guards should have an easier time breaking down a slower footed perimeter of Utah, creating solid looks all over the floor. The frontcourt of Cameron Matthews and KeShawn Murphy also adds to the upside, as they are extremely versatile and will be able to hold their own on the glass against a bigger Utes interior.
This is a Bulldog squad that I am particularly high on, and when you add in the road woes of Utah, it makes this a bet I must make. This is most likely a sell high opportunity on Utah, as they have flown up KenPom’s rankings with 3 blowout victories. Let’s back Mississippi State to run away with this game behind a semi-home crowd.
Best Bet: Mississippi State -5, play to -7
Liberty at Charleston (-3.5)
TD Arena, Charleston, SC
4:00 pm EST on YouTube
After a heartbreaking overtime loss to FAU in this same arena, the Liberty Flames will stay in town to face the home team, the Charleston Cougars. Charleston is also coming off a thrilling overtime game against the same exact opponent, but the Cougars were able to win their matchup on a buzzer beating 30 footer by Ante Brzovic. This is a battle between 2 of the better mid majors in college basketball, so it should be a fun one regardless of the outcome.
This handicap comes down to pace and despite Liberty being on the road, they should be able to do so in this contest. All 3 of Charleston’s games have been track meets, partly because they love to get out in transition themselves but their opponents have preferred that style as well. This is not the case with the Flames. Head coach Ritchie McKay is perfectly fine with playing a game in the 50’s and 60’s scoring wise and typically has a solid half court offense. Generating offense in the half court will be huge when trying to take the Cougars out of their running game, and Charleston’s defense hasn’t looked the greatest to start the season.
Charleston’s Ante Brzovic will clearly be the best player on the floor tomorrow, but coach McKay’s defense will absolutely be ready for the challenge. The Flames may be able to guard Brzovic 1-on-1 in the post, and this is something that each of Charleston’s opponents have been unable to do. Even if Isaiah Ihnen has a difficult time defending the Cougars star, McKay can implement post traps that his team is comfortable executing, and they can force Charleston’s perimeter to beat them, who have been shooting well above expectation.
This is another buy low/sell high in the best bet segment, and these types of bets will frequently come about early on in the season. The Flames should be able to bother the Cougars with their unique style of play, and the Cougars are not used to playing low possession games. Even though Liberty is playing with no days’ rest, the slower pace should make it a bit easier on their legs in the 2nd half of this back-to-back.
This line may move in our favor a bit, so it’s possible that you can wait on a better number before tip-off. If not, I would play this number down to +3.
Best Bet: Liberty +3.5