Best Bets 11/15

Ohio State at Texas A&M (-4.5)

Reed Arena, College Station, TX

9:00 pm EST on SECN

The Ohio State Buckeyes will visit College Station to take on the Texas A&M Aggies in a top 25 showdown on Friday night. The Jake Diebler era at Ohio State has started out hot, as the Buckeyes are 2-0 with a convincing win over Texas on opening night was followed up by a demolition of Youngstown State on Monday. As for the Aggies, they sit at 2-1 but are coming off 2 buy game victories after their heartbreaking loss at UCF on opening night. 

As for the actual handicap on this game, this appears to be a buy low/sell high spot. Ohio State is riding high off of their 2 impressive victories, but there are holes to poke in these performances. While the Buckeyes have quality shooters on their roster in Bruce Thornton, Meechie Johnson, and John Mobley Jr., this is a team that is due for 3-point regression. They are currently shooting 48% from 3 through 2 games, while their opponents are shooting just 20%. The Buckeyes may win the 3-point shooting battle on more nights than not, but these are outlier numbers. It is also more likely that their shooting comes back to earth when playing in their first road game in a hostile environment like Texas A&M. 

This appears to be a buy low spot on the Aggies as well. Looking back at their opening night loss, they had control of the game for nearly 30 minutes before experiencing a severe drought that saw them score just 1 field goal in the final 6 minutes. The first 30 minutes of that contest are more indicative of who this team truly is, as they looked like the far better team in their first true road game of the year. This is an Aggies team that is much improved on both ends of the floor from a season ago. They addressed their weaknesses of shooting and defense on the perimeter by adding CJ Wilcher and Zhuric Phelps, while also adding a great interior presence to match Buzz Williams’ system perfectly in Pharrel Payne. Payne is especially important in this particular matchup, as he should be able to attack the offensive glass on a Buckeyes suspect front court that hasn’t tested thus far.

This line appears to be an overreaction from Ohio State’s early season performances that may be flawed. Although teams can change quickly and there is a lot of uncertainty about teams early on in this day and age in college hoops, the spread in this game would be closer to 7 to 7.5 if this was played on opening night. This a great spot for the Aggies to win a big game convincingly en route to covering the 4.5 point spread.

Best Bet: Texas A&M -4.5, play to -6

Marquette at Maryland (-1.5)

XFINITY Center, College Park, MD

8:00 pm EST on FS1

The Maryland Terrapins will host the 15th ranked Marquette Golden Eagles in what will be their first true road game of the season. Maryland has yet to play in a tightly contested game, blowing out all 3 of their buy game opponents. As for Marquette, they’ve had a tougher time fending off their buy game competition. They were trailing in the second half to George Mason before going on a big run late to win by 21, and Central Michigan was able to keep the game within single digits as a 27 point underdog. There was a common theme with Marquette’s opponents, and we will dive into why these games were challenging for them. 

Marquette’s lack of size up front is a major issue in this contest against the Terrapins frontcourt duo in Julian Reese and Derik Queen. The Golden Eagles were at a major disadvantage against the frontcourt of Central Michigan on Monday, and that was a big reason why they couldn’t break away in that contest. They were outrebounded 46-27 along with giving up 13 offensive rebounds, but their turnover forcing ability was ultimately the key in getting the home victory (26 forced turnovers). It won’t be as easy to force all of those turnovers on the road against more competent guards, although it will be an avenue to success for the Golden Eagles on Friday. It is also fair to say that Reese and Queen are more talented bigs than Central Michigan’s frontcourt, so they should be able to feast against this weak Marquette unit. 

This handicap isn’t just a fade of Marquette, as the Terrapins are a team on the rise. The offense is much improved from last year, led by the aforementioned frontcourt duo, but the backcourt is also a spot to be optimistic about with this team. Although they haven’t been tested, Jakobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice, and Selton Miguel have looked like an upgrade from last year’s backcourt that had no scoring options outside of Jahmir Young (who was fantastic by the way). The shooting has far improved with this new committee of guards, and this is massive for a team that finished in the bottom 20 in the nation in 3 point shooting a year ago. 

As much as the offense has improved for the Terrapins, it’s actually the defensive side of the ball that should be considered elite. Firstly, they have a plethora of wing defenders they can throw at Kam Jones including Gillespie, Rice, and Jayhlon Young. And even if these options can’t contain Jones, Maryland will have the option to help off Chase Ross and Stevie Mitchell to make it harder on Jones when it comes to getting into the lane. Teams should be willing to allow Ross and Mitchell to beat them from the perimeter, although Ross has been shooting better this season (6-11 from 3). Reese and Queen, along with wing defenders Jordan Geronimo and DeShawn Harris-Smith, should provide enough of a rim deterrent to slow down Jones, which is the key to slowing down the Golden Eagle offense as a whole. 

This bet is partially a fade of Marquette, but I am particularly high on Maryland, and wouldn’t be surprised if they made a run towards the top of the Big Ten. Shaka Smart knows how to motivate his team when they are an underdog, but I believe they are at too much of a disadvantage in this contest against a physical and more talented Terrapins group. 

Best Bet: Maryland -1.5, play to -3  

Others to Consider

Alabama at Purdue (+2)

You can check out our game preview for deeper analysis on this game, but the Crimson Tide have significant advantages in this contest. It may be tough to come out of Mackey Arena with a win, but this Purdue defense looks a bit lost since the injury to Daniel Jacobsen. Alabama guards Mark Sears and Labaron Philon may have a field day operating in pick and roll, especially if Purdue big Will Berg is on the floor for extended minutes, and Purdue may have no way of stopping them. Alabama’s athletic perimeter defenders may give a less physically gifted Purdue backcourt some fits, leading to some turnover upside for the Tide. 

Purdue also may not have the rebound edge in this matchup, which is another massive concern for a Matt Painter led team. His team’s win the rebound battle game in and game out, but if they are forced to play small with Kaufmann-Renn at the 5, it may be a big day for Cliff Omoruyi on the glass. Not many factors back the Boilermakers in my eyes and I wouldn't be surprised if the Tide ran away with a comfortable victory on Friday night.

Best Bet: Alabama -2, play to -3.5

Ohio at Memphis (-13.5)

The Memphis Tigers are coming off 2 solid wins to start their season, but there are holes to poke in these efforts. They were trailing for much of their opening night contest against Missouri before a massive second half run, and UNLV was also in control of the game before the Tigers took the lead for good at the 6:30 mark in the second half. These types of runs can happen when you have the talent and athleticism that Memphis has, but it can also make you extremely vulnerable as a sizable favorite.

The Bobcats are also no slouch. The backcourt trio of Jackson Paveletzke, AJ Brown, and Shareef Mitchell can absolutely compete with the Tigers, especially when it comes to forcing turnovers (52nd nationally in turnover rate forced last season). Pressuring Memphis is normally a good way to generate stops, as they can get careless with the ball at times. This Ohio defense can certainly win the turnover battle, and they have been a bit unlucky when it comes to 3 point variance. Teams are shooting 48% from 3 against the Bobcats, but they are only allowing an average rate of unguarded jumpers (51st percentile, per Synergy). Back the Bobcats to hang in there with Memphis, as they are a much better team than their 1-2 record suggests.

Best Bet: Ohio +13.5, play to +12