Best Bet for 12/13

Indiana at Nebraska (-4)

Pinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE

8:00 pm EST on FOX

This play was given out in our Discord yesterday at Nebraska -2.5, so make sure to join our free channel that can be found on the homepage of our website, or in our social media bios (@mainelyhoops).

A Big Ten battle will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska, where the Indiana Hoosiers will play in their first true road game of the season against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. These teams are off to polar opposite starts to conference play, as the Hoosiers handled Minnesota at home and cruised to an 82-67 victory, but it was a different story for the Cornhuskers, as they went into East Lansing and were demolished by Michigan State, losing by 37 in a game that got away from them early. Fred Hoiberg’s squad will look to get right behind a hostile home environment, and we will be making a case for them to cover the short spread of -4.

After an embarrassing effort in East Lansing, it is almost a guarantee we will see Nebraska give an all-out effort on Friday night. Nothing went their way last Saturday, as they went 4-22 from beyond the arc and were also dominated on the glass by a not so great Spartan front line. A big reason for the rebounding woes was due to Berke Buyuktuncel being a bit hobbled, as he only played 13 minutes in this contest and didn’t look anywhere close to 100%. Nebraska’s frontcourt depth falls off quickly, but they have now had 6 days to rest and prepare for Indiana, so we should see a much healthier looking Buyuktuncel tonight. 

The health and motivation of the Huskers are key factors in this handicap, but the matchup also looks to be favorable for them. Nebraska won all 3 matchups from a season ago, and I believe there are a few big reasons for that. 

Coach Hoiberg’s defensive style can give the Hoosiers interior led offense some major trouble. The Huskers take away the rim at all costs and force opponents to become jump shooting teams, and that is something Indiana coach Mike Woodson has had a tough time adjusting to throughout his tenure in Bloomington. The Hoosiers run almost everything through their frontcourt of Malik Reneau and Oumar Ballo, but these 2 can be considered non-floor spacers which is bad news against a Nebraska defense that gives up just 29% of opposing field goal attempts to come at the rim (1st percentile, per Synergy). The Huskers will send double teams at almost every Indiana post up opportunity to force their big men to become playmakers, which they are most likely not capable of. This hyper aggressive, rim denying defense the Huskers bring should be able to harass the turnover prone Hoosiers, who are 286th nationally in offensive turnover rate. As for the offensive end for the Huskers, the perimeter weapons of Connor Essegian and Brice Williams should give the slower footed Indiana team a tough time guarding in space, leading to some open looks from 3.

The spread of -4 is probably a tad overpriced from the opener, but it is still the side to be on. The matchup and motivational edge may be too much for the Hoosiers to overcome, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a blowout in Lincoln tonight. Give me the Huskers as a short favorite.

Best Bet: Nebraska -4