Best Bet for 12/11

California Baptist at San Diego State (-15)

Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA

10:00 pm EST on Mountain West Network

The 23rd ranked San Diego State Aztecs will host the Cal Baptist Lancers on Wednesday night in Viejas Arena. The Aztecs were expected to have a “down” year, but Brian Dutcher is proving again that he is one of the best coaches in the country and has his squad back in the AP top 25 after big resume wins over Creighton and Houston. As for Cal Baptist, they have held serve in games they are expected to win, and they have hung around against power conference competition. A 79-77 loss to SMU and a 74-59 loss to UCF prove that they can compete when stepping up in class, and that is a big part to this handicap as we will be making a case for the underdog.

Pace is a big factor in this game, as neither team looks to speed up the other. Both the Lancers and Aztecs rank outside the top 250 in adjusted pace (Torvik) and also rank below the 35th percentile in transition rate allowed (Synergy). This should create a lower possession count and make it difficult for San Diego State to break away even if they are efficient offensively. However, this isn’t an Aztec offense to be intimidated by. 

Firstly, the Aztecs don’t get to the rim at a high rate (30th percentile in rim rate, Synergy), and they don’t get on the offensive glass with their more perimeter centric frontcourt (264th in OREB%). Being the more dominant team in these areas is crucial when playing inferior teams, but the Aztecs don’t seem to have those traits. Barring a hot shooting night, the Aztecs being a jump shot reliant team should keep the Lancers alive in this contest, and this isn’t really a perimeter group that can consistently beat you anyway.

You could say the Lancers can keep up talent wise in this contest, giving them upside to pull off an upset. Guard Dominique Daniels (21.7 ppg) and forward Kendel Coleman (14 ppg, 8.8 rpg) are the engines of this offense, and their 2 man game can absolutely keep up with the likes of Aztec guards Nick Boyd and BJ Davis. Cal Baptist also takes care of the ball at a high level (23rd nationally in TO rate) and can be competitive on the glass, as shown in their performances against other power conference opponents. 

To put the cherry on top, coach Dutcher is 10-16 ATS as a double digit non conference favorite during his tenure at San Diego State, and this trend makes sense with their lack of offense and slower paced style. We may not see an exciting offensive game in general, but the Lancers are a live dog in this contest and should not be overlooked. Give me Cal Baptist +15. 

Best Bet: Cal Baptist +15, play to +13.5