Best Bet for 12/29

Belmont at Drake (-8.5)

Knapp Center, Des Moines, IA

3:00 pm EST on ESPN+

The Belmont Bruins will visit Des Moines to face the undefeated Drake Bulldogs in a Missouri Valley Conference showdown on Sunday afternoon. Belmont has had a solid start to their season, going 9-3 with wins over quality mid major opponents in Lipscomb, Middle Tennessee, and Illinois State in their conference opener. As for Drake, it has been a dream start to the season. They are currently 11-0 and have a real case to receive an at-large bid on Selection Sunday, as they have wins over Miami, Florida Atlantic, Vanderbilt, and most recently an overtime victory over Kansas State. These 2 teams are thought of as contenders to win the MVC, so this should be an intense matchup. 

Belmont has a chance to be a live underdog in this game, and we can attribute a lot of this to Drake’s style of play. The Bulldogs play at the 362nd fastest pace in the entire country, as they value slowing teams down and playing their brand of basketball. Drake’s identity of executing in the halfcourt along with their strong pack line defense always makes them a great underdog to bet on, but when they are a sizable favorite, I will typically look in the opposite direction. The Bulldogs offense doesn’t quite have enough breakaway speed to completely take teams out of the game, as their adjusted offensive rating is just 117th in the country, per Torvik. Add in the fact that they are extremely loose with the ball at times (332nd TO rate nationally), and that gives Belmont a real chance to hang around.

Belmont also has the offensive firepower to hang around and potentially steal this game in Des Moines. Jonathan Pierre, Tyler Lundblade, and Brody Peebles have the ability to score over the top of Drake’s pack line defense, and if the Bruins are able to stretch out Drake’s defense, it will open up all areas of the floor to score the ball. The Bruins also take care of the ball at a solid rate (54th nationally). 

While there isn't much to be inspired about with Belmont’s defense, they do rebound the ball well on this end. They are 59th nationally in defensive rebound rate, and that will go a long way against a Drake team that creates a lot of their offensive value on the glass. Cutting off this area will give the Bruins a serious chance at winning this contest.

Due to Drake’s fantastic start to the season, they will now have a large target on their backs. They will be getting every team’s best shot and are certainly susceptible to upsets with their style of play. We will be taking the points with the Bruins here, but a bet on them to come away with the road upset could maximize their upside.

Best Bet: Belmont +8.5 or +340 ML