Best Bet for 12/28

New Mexico at Colorado State (-1)

Moby Arena, Fort Collins, CO

3:00 pm EST on Mountain West Network

Conference play is officially entering full force in the coming days, but the Mountain West has the spotlight on Saturday as the New Mexico Lobos will visit the Colorado State Rams in Fort Collins. Both teams experienced their share of highs and lows in their non-conference schedules. The Lobos wrapped up their non-conference season with a huge home win over VCU, but they experienced a few tough losses in New Mexico State (19.5 favorites) and Arizona State. As for the Rams, they opened their conference schedule with a win over Nevada on the road as 8.5 point underdogs. Outside of this result, it has been a disappointing season for Niko Medved’s squad, as they sit at just 7-5 overall with losses to UC Riverside and Washington. This should be an interesting battle between 2 different styles of play, but it is the home CSU Rams we will be making a case for.

The pace battle is key to this handicap, as New Mexico looks to play in transition as often as possible, while Colorado State looks to prevent run outs and force the opposition to score on them in the halfcourt. Just 13% of opponents possessions are played in transition for the Rams (17th percentile, per Synergy), while New Mexico plays in transition 23.8% of the time (98th percentile). Typically, siding with the home team to control pace is the smarter decision, so it is more likely than not that we see more possessions in the halfcourt. However, Colorado State will need to take care of the ball and score efficiently to slow down New Mexico’s pace. The Rams offense isn’t necessarily explosive, but they grade out much better in a halfcourt setting. They are in the 63rd percentile in points per possession in the halfcourt, while the Lobos are in just the 46th percentile defensively. This gives the Rams a big edge, as the Lobos will not be able to run as often if they are taking the ball out of their own basket.

New Mexico’s offense is also much worse when the game is slowed down. Their backcourt of Donovan Dent, Tru Washington, and CJ Noland all love to score at the rim and play in a more open style, and that shows in the numbers. They average nearly 1.1 points per possession in transition but just .915 PPP in the halfcourt, and that is mostly due to their guard’s inability to hit shots from outside the paint. Medved’s defensive style forces the opposition to win with their jump shooting, and the Rams are in the 80th percentile when it comes to guarding shots at the rim, so expect them to give the Lobos issues in multiple areas.

This is a Rams squad that is also due for some positive 3-point shooting regression on both sides of the floor. They rank outside the top 250 in both offensive and defensive 3-point percentage, and this is a bit surprising for a team that has solid 2-way wings. While the offense was never necessarily going to light it up from downtown, guys like Nique Clifford, Bowen Born, and Keshawn Williams are shooting a few ticks below their career averages, so we should expect them to knock down shots at a higher rate in the future. As for the defense, they are allowing just 38% of opposing catch and shoot opportunities to be unguarded (28th percentile), but they are allowing a 42% 3-point percentage on these shots (12th percentile). Unguarded shot defense is mostly a luck statistic, so we can consider this Rams squad to be unlucky, and a poor shooting team like New Mexico could very well bring some positive regression for them.

Colorado State is undervalued in the market in my eyes regardless of what their results have shown us. They are 4-8 against the spread on the season, but they are not the type of team to dominate buy game competition due to their lack of physicality up front. I think a tighter spread gives them a much better chance to cover, and this will be just the 2nd true road game of the year for the Lobos, so expect that to become a factor as well. The Rams win at Nevada was no fluke, and this looks to be a team on the rise. Let’s back the undervalued Rams to start Mountain West play 2-0.

Best Bet: Colorado State -115 ML, play to -130