Best Bet for 1/2

Memphis at Florida Atlantic (+3.5)

Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena, Boca Raton, FL

7:00 pm EST on ESPN2

In the conference opener for both of these teams, the Memphis Tigers will visit the Florida Atlantic Owls in Boca Raton on Thursday night. Memphis has finally finished their gauntlet of a non-conference schedule, and they held up well as they went 10-3 with ranked wins over UConn, Clemson, and Ole Miss. As for FAU, they were also tested in non-conference and had some mixed results. The Owls sit at 7-6 overall with wins over Liberty and Oklahoma State but have close losses against UCF, Charleston, and Seton Hall. This is a matchup between 2 teams that are viewed as conference title contenders, and they will both be tested once again. However, it will be the home FAU Owls that we will be making a case for tonight.

It starts with the talent on this FAU roster, as they have the scoring punch to compete with anyone, including the Memphis Tigers. They go through their frontcourt of Kaleb Glenn, Baba Miller, and Tre Carroll, but this is an Owls squad that has 8 different players scoring more than 8 points per game this season. The guard talent and depth makes this team a very tough cover, as the scoring production can come from anyone at almost any time. This dynamic has led them to the 47th rated KenPom offense in year one of the John Jakus era, and that only expects to improve with time, as essentially this entire roster was plucked from the transfer portal. 

FAU’s advantage in the turnover department is what may ultimately lead them to a cover in this matchup. Their plethora of guards and versatile bigs make it difficult for opposing teams to create takeaways (81st nationally in TO rate), and the Owls can force some turnovers of their own against a vulnerable Memphis squad, who turn the ball over at nearly a 20% rate (294th nationally). FAU’s ability to score over the top of Memphis’ defense is also key, as the Tigers like to fly around and try to cause havoc defensively, and that can lead to some open looks. The Tigers allow 44% of opposing field goal attempts to come from 3-point land (298th nationally), and the Owls can expose this area with their spacing and 36% 3-point percentage.

The defensive side is certainly the weaker area for the Owls, but their “no middle” style defense could potentially give Memphis issues. Although it doesn’t seem like this Owls group has completely figured out this style of defense, they still have the backline rim protection in Baba Miller and Matas Vokietaitis to mask those issues. The effort of not giving Memphis star PJ Haggerty straight line drives will go a long way in this game, and making the Tigers jump shot oriented in general is typically a good strategy.

The Tigers are still due for some negative 3-point regression of the offensive end as well. They don’t take a high volume of 3’s, but they are knocking them down at a much higher clip than expected. The aforementioned Haggerty (41% from 3) along with Tyrese Hunter (45% from 3) are shooting well above their career averages, so we could see them regress closer to the mean in a tough road environment.  

We should expect a motivated FAU Owls squad to play up on both ends of the floor tonight. Siding with motivated talent as an underdog is something I will always look to do. Let’s back the Owls as short home underdogs on Thursday night.

Best Bet: Florida Atlantic +3.5